10 Landing Spots for Astros 3B Alex Bregman Ahead of MLB Free Agency
Zachary D. RymerSeptember 11, 202410 Landing Spots for Astros 3B Alex Bregman Ahead of MLB Free Agency0 of 7
Logan Riely/Getty Images
When the San Francisco Giants extended Matt Chapman last week, it wasn’t only good news for Matt Chapman.
Heck, one can easily imagine Alex Bregman doing a little fist pump when he heard about it.
With Chapman, who had been expected to opt out of his current deal, now tied to San Francisco for $150 million over the next six years, Bregman is positioned to stand alone as the top third baseman on MLB’s 2024-25 free-agent market. In fact, he’ll arguably be the third-best player after Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes.
Meanwhile, it’s hardly a footnote that Chapman and Bregman share an agent in Scott Boras.
He’s not normally one to do extensions when one of his guys is so close to free agency, but it made sense to do so in this case. After what happened last winter, probably the last thing he wanted was two high-profile clients competing against one another for free-agent riches.
But what is Bregman worth? For that matter, where might he land?
Without further delay, let’s get to speculating on both fronts.
What Will Bregman Be Worth in Free Agency?1 of 7
Alex BregmanLogan Riely/Getty Images
Bregman is a younger, better player than Chapman.
The first point is beyond dispute, as Bregman (30-164) is Chapman’s (31-135) junior by nearly a full year. And as for the second point, the only thing Chapman really has on his fellow third baseman is Gold Gloves.
Bregman has more WAR (38.5 to 37.9), as well as more home runs (187 to 178) and a higher OPS+ (132 to 118). And that’s only counting the nine-year Houston Astro’s regular-season exploits. He’s also a two-time World Series champion with 19 career playoff home runs.
“[Bregman] would completely change our clubhouse for the better,” a rival general manager told ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
To be sure, Bregman is no longer the MVP-caliber performer he was in the late 2010s. You could even say he’s having a down year in 2024, wherein his OPS is a career-low .762 and his elbow has “little gremlins” making it prone to swelling.
The two-time All-Star has nonetheless recovered from a slow start, posting an .832 OPS with 21 homers since May 9. And while his elbow issues are alarming on the surface, he doesn’t have any structural damage to his ulnar collateral ligament.
It therefore seems fair to pencil Bregman in for the same deal Chapman got, but with an extra year on account of his youth. That would come out to seven years, $175 million.
Personally, I believe Bregman could go higher. My most recent projection for him was seven years, $210 million.
As for which teams could sign the 30-year-old at such rates, 10 come to mind that could value him as a winner, a stable third baseman, a right-handed slugger or all of the above.
Let’s rank these 10 teams according to how much sense they make for Bregman.
10-6: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Cubs, Nationals2 of 7
Isaac ParedesMatt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images
10. Boston Red Sox
Record: 73-712 3rd in AL East
2024 3B WAR: 3.3 (6th)
Rafael Devers is a heck of a hitter, but Bregman would be a defensive upgrade over him at third base. He’s also the impact righty hitter the Red Sox badly need, with a pull-oriented swing that would fit perfectly at Fenway Park.
Yet while the Red Sox could hypothetically sign Bregman and move Devers to first base, that would put Triston Casas in an awkward spot. And besides, this team needs pitching more.
9. Toronto Blue Jays
Record: 69-77, 5th in AL East
2024 3B WAR: 3.8 (T-3rd)
Though third base hasn’t been a WAR vacuum for Toronto, the picture changes when the focus is narrowed to offense. Blue Jays third basemen have a .295 OBP and 16 home runs.
Yet even if the Jays wanted to add Bregman next to George Springer to expand their inventory of former Astros stars, would the interest be mutual? Barring extensions for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, Toronto’s immediate future looks murky.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
Record: 81-64, 3rd in NL West
2024 3B WAR: 2.7 (10th)
The Snakes don’t need a third baseman now, but that won’t be the case if they decline Eugenio SuĂĄrez’s $15 million option for 2025. Which wouldn’t be a bad idea, given he’s a 33-year-old whose prime has been on thin ice for a couple years at this point.
On the other hand, $15 million isn’t a lot of money for a guy with SuĂĄrez’s creds. And like the Red Sox, the Diamondbacks would do well to narrow their focus to pitching this winter.
7. Chicago Cubs
Record: 75-70, 2nd in NL Central
2024 3B WAR: Minus-0.5 (27th)
It just feels like the Cubs need another hitter, doesn’t it? Their offense might even be the first thing that pops into one’s head upon thinking the word “mediocre,” or at least a close second after that one bit from Mad Max: Fury Road.
Yet even if Cody Bellinger opens up a spot by opting out of his deal, the Cubs will still have Isaac Paredes at third base and Michael Busch at first base. One could move to accommodate Bregman, but it’s clearly not the most natural fit.
6. Washington Nationals
Record: 64-80, 4th in NL East
2024 3B WAR: Minus-0.1 (26th)
Bregman alongside CJ Abrams, James Wood and Dylan Crews? Sounds like fun. And between that homegrown trio and a near-total lack [nods in the direction of Keibert Ruiz] of long-term commitments, the time sure seems right for the Nationals to spend again.
But what of Brady House? The 21-year-old slugger is next in line to join the aforementioned core, and he’s a bit too good on defense to move to first base for Bregman’s sake.
5. Houston Astros3 of 7
Alex BregmanLogan Riely/MLB Photos via Getty Images
Record: 77-67, 1st in AL West
2024 3B WAR: 2.9 (9th)
Bregman is not yet an ex-Astro. And the plan, it seems, is to keep it that way.
They talked a good game about wanting to keep him in the spring, and they’re back on it again now.
This was Houston general manager Dana Brown during the game against Arizona on Sunday night:
Michael Schwab @michaelschwab13″We’re going to try to make a run at him, put something together”
Dana Brown on the ESPN broadcast about the possibility of extending Alex Bregman
Beyond being a good player in general, Bregman is a fantastic fit for Minute Maid Park. He consistently outperforms his expected home runs precisely because of the Crawford Boxes, which seem custom-designed for his stroke.
Yet even if the Astros are willing to re-up Bregman, how able are they to do so?
As Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote, “Nothing in the Astros’ past suggests they’re ready to give” Bregman the kind of deal he and Boras will be seeking. He’s right about that, and not just because this is the same team that let Carlos Correa and George Springer walk.
The Astros just aren’t prolific spenders in free agency. Their $100 million deal with Carlos Lee from 2006 is the only nine-figure free-agent deal in their history, while the current regime topped out at $95 million for Josh Hader.
Besides, if the team is going to spend big money to keep anyone for the long haul, it should be Kyle Tucker. He’s a younger, better player who’s due for free agency after 2025.
4. Detroit Tigers4 of 7
A.J. HinchOrlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Record: 74-71, 4th in AL Central
2024 3B WAR: 0.2 (25th)
If the Astros don’t keep Bregman, what are the chances he finds a little taste of Houston in Detroit instead?
That’s where the Tigers reside, and they’re going to be managed by A.J. Hinch for the foreseeable future. He previously skippered the Astros between 2015 and 2019, winning a World Series in 2017 and an American League pennant in 2019.
Of course, there’s an unavoidable negative connotation that comes with bringing all this up. But the point is that if the Tigers decide to make a run at Bregman, Hinch is there to be the point man in the recruiting effort.
And the Tigers should indeed want to make a run at Bregman, if for no other reason than he fits them perfectly from both on-paper and timing perspectives.
Third base is a clear weak spot in Detroit, which could otherwise use a right-handed hitter to help balance the lineup around Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter. And with their first winning season since 2016 in sight, it’s time for the Tigers to make an aggressive play to regain AL Central superiority.
The question, of course, is whether they’ll see it that way.
The Tigers were among the league’s top spenders between 2007 and 2017, but that was under Mike Ilitch. His son, Christopher, took control of the team upon his death. And back in May, president of baseball operations Scott Harris didn’t sound overly confident that he’ll have the resources to spend big any time soon.
3. New York Mets5 of 7
Mark VientosBrandon Sloter/Getty Images
Record: 79-66, T-2nd in NL East
2024 3B WAR: 3.8 (T-3rd)
It’s not because of Mark Vientos’ bat that the Mets are on this list.
Said bat is a good one, thus far producing an .877 OPS and 24 home runs in 2024. Some of Vientos’ underlying metrics likewise jump off the page, including a barrel rate in the 95th percentile.
As for his glove, well…his glove stinks.
This is true whether you’re looking at the 24-year-old’s Outs Above Average (minus-eight) or his Defensive Runs Saved (minus-seven). He only has four errors, sure, but those only count for the balls he can get to.
There’s therefore at least one good excuse for the Mets to consider upgrading at the hot corner by signing Bregman. And then there’s the other: Because they can.
Steve Cohen is the richest owner in baseball, and back-to-back $300 million payrolls show just how willing he is to leverage his wealth in his pursuit of wins. Yet he’s done so in a novel way with free-agent spending, generally favoring quantity over quality.
If the Mets stick to this tactic this winter, they wouldn’t have to stop at Bregman. To wit, they might sign Bregman and re-sign Pete Alonso and still end up spending less than it would have cost them to lure Juan Soto from the Yankees.
Or they could just, you know, sign Soto. Not easy to do, perhaps, but certainly less convoluted than signing Bregman and Alonso and moving Vientos.
2. New York Yankees6 of 7
Jazz Chisholm Jr.Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Record: 83-62, 1st in AL East
2024 3B WAR: 2.0 (18th)
As for that other team in New York, this shouldn’t be the first time anyone has experienced the Yankees being connected to Bregman.
Though the Astros have never seemed interested in trading Bregman, there have been times when his name has popped up on the rumor mill. And whenever it has, Yankees-related speculation has invariably followed.
This traces back to the revolving door that the Yankees have had at the hot corner. And while Jazz Chisholm Jr. has put a stop to it for now, one has to assume it’s only temporary.
Third base is not his natural position, and ditto for his previous home in center field with the Miami Marlins. Chisholm’s best position is second base, where the Yankees will have an opening if Gleyber Torres seeks a fresh start elsewhere in free agency.
Granted, there is history that needs acknowledging here. Bregman was on the 2017 Astros team that was revealed to have cheated in beating, among other teams, the Yankees en route to winning the World Series. Aaron Judge was none too pleased about that.
ESPN @espn”You cheated and you didn’t earn it.”
Aaron Judge said the Astros should be stripped of their 2017 World Series title because it doesn’t “hold any value.” pic.twitter.com/IbGrWGQqsn
Yet if the Yankees do go after Bregman, that alone would indicate there’s no organizational grudge against him. It would merely reinforce their dedication to winning, which could be especially strong if their championship drought extends to 15 years.
Which ultimately leaves just one complication: Compared to re-signing Juan Soto, doing a deal with Bregman should be a distant second priority for the Yankees this winter.
1. Seattle Mariners7 of 7
Julio RodrĂguez Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images
Record: 73-72, 2nd in AL West
2024 3B WAR: 2.2 (T-13th)
Out of all the teams that could theoretically get into the race for Bregman, nobody needs him like the Mariners.
They’re the most lopsided contender of 2024, as their million-dollar pitching staff comes with a ten-cent lineup. And that might even be an overvaluation of Seattle’s offense, which is somehow getting outhit by the Chicago White Sox.
The only thing Mariners hitters lead the league in is strikeouts, of which they have 1,470 for the season. This is where adding Bregman could be especially impactful, as his strikeout rate has been in the 90th percentile or better every year since 2017.
The Mariners also just need another star to take some weight off Julio RodrĂguez’s shoulders, and preferably one who’s been there and done that before. Randy Arozarena is, arguably, this guy in theory, but he’s just not the sure thing Bregman has been throughout his career.
As they’re one of many teams in an uncertain place with their local broadcasting situation, whether the Mariners could make the money work is the big question.
One way around this, though, is to take a cue from history and assume Seattleites will turn up at T-Mobile Park if they’re given a team worth watching. The Mariners can and have finished in the top five of the AL in attendance, including as recently as 2023.
