10 things to watch when the Eagles play the Buccaneers
After beating the New Orleans Saints last weekend, the Philadelphia Eagles will be looking for their second straight win in a road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Letâs run through some of the more important things to watch out for this in matchup.
1 – Jalen Hurts vs. Todd Bowles and a different kind of blitz
Hurtsâ career splits from four games against Bowles: 83/141 (58.9% completion), 900 yards (6.4 average), 4 TD*, 5 INT, 72.4 passer rating, 8 sacks taken (plus one intentional grounding penalty that resulted in a safety) … 29 runs, 116 yards (4.0 average), 3 TD.
*One of Hurtsâ passing touchdowns came in garbage time with the Eagles down 31 to 7 at 4:45 left in the fourth quarter.
Not great!
As we know, the Bucsâ head coach has been able to stifle Hurts by blitzing him at a high frequency. The Eagles clearly had no great answers to handle extra rushers late last season.
The good news is that Hurts has shown progress against the blitz:
Jalen Hurtsâ 268 dropbacks vs. the blitz in 2023:
– 63.1% completion percentage
– 6.9 yards per attempt
– 6.3% sack rate
So far this season:
– 72.7% completion percentage
– 7.2 YPA
– 5.2% sack rate
Find out whatâs changed in my weekly film review here: https://t.co/MLZ6clN756
â EJ Smith (@EJSmith94) September 25, 2024
The bad news is that the version of âthe blitzâ that Bowles utilizes is the kind Hurts has especially struggled against. Those are âbig blitzesâ with at least six rushers. Somehow, opposing defenses have only sent that variety at Hurts just six times through three games this season. Per Sheil Kapadia (hat tip to The Ringerâs Philly Special), Hurts faced nine big blitzes in the Eaglesâ Wild Card loss to the Bucs earlier this year. He was 4/9 for seven yards.
One would think Hurts stands to benefit from Kellen Moore controlling the offense. The Eaglesâ scheme will probably provide him with more help than he had the last time he played the Bucs. But Hurts might also be missing his top two wide receivers in this game. Life might not be so easy for him as he aims to halt his league-leading turnover stretch dating back to Week 1 of the 2023 season.
2 – Whoâs even playing at wide receiver?
It seems like A.J. Brown â who was ruled questionable â might be pushing to play. One can wonder if DeVonta Smithâs absence is especially prompting Brown to feel like he needs to be out there for his team. Even if Brown does play through his hamstring injury, he might be available for a limited number of snaps. And perhaps mostly as a decoy. Weâll see.
If Brown canât play, the Eagles will likely have just four receivers: Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson, Parris Campbell, and John Ross. Weâre guessing here that both Campbell and Ross will both be temporarily elevated from the practice squad for this game.
Thatâs obviously not the most formidable receiving corps thatâs ever been assembled. Dotson has just 14 yards this year; itâs clear that Hurts doesnât love throwing his way. Wilson had one good catch-and-run last week but he also had a bad drop that hit him right in the hands. Campbell is good for short catches but maybe not much more. Ross hasnât caught a pass in an NFL regular season game since 2021.
And so the Eagles likely wonât be able to heavily rely on this group. Theyâll be mixed in, for sure. But Dallas Goedert is once again going to have to do the heavy lifting in the passing attack.
Itâll be interesting to see if the Eagles also aim to get Saquon Barkley more involved as a pass-catcher. Maybe even more Kenny Gainwell and/or Will Shipley? We could see an increase of both 21 personnel (two running backs) and 12 personnel (two tight ends) in this game with 11 personnel (three receivers) not looking like the optimal option.
The feeling here is that the Eagles have enough to be able to piece the offense together and figure it out for one game. No one is expecting a record-setting explosion but they should be able to score enough to outpace the Bucsâ offense.
3 – The Bucs are banged up, too
As noted in the final Eagles-Buccaneers injury report, Tampa is missing two key defenders. And maybe some more starters depending on whether their questionable players suit up or not.
Also, a number of key Bucs players were limited in practice this week. Itâll be worth watching if they can make it through the entire game.
4 – Run the damn ball!
Big picture, the Eagles probably need to do a better job of managing Saquon Barkleyâs touches so that heâs not burnt out by the time the postseason rolls around.
For now, though, they donât really have a choice. Theyâve gotta lean on him. Heâs basically been unstoppable and itâs not like the Eagles can majorly rely on their passing attack this week.
Barkley is primed to take advantage of a Bucs defense thatâs allowed 4.9 rushing yards per attempt this season. Only four teams (including the Eagles) have allowed more. The Bucs have been an especially bad tackling team with a league-high 41 missed tackles, according to Pro Football Focus.
Over the past two weeks, the Eagles have weirdly failed to get Barkley a touch on their first drive of the game. Cut the bullshit and give him the ball early and often until the Bucs prove they can stop it.
5 – Consistency from Jalen Carter
Carterâs performance against the Bucs in the regular season last year was one of his more memorable games from his rookie campaign. He logged half of a sack. He drew a double team to help Nicholas Morrow get credited for a safety. He punched the ball out of Rachaad Whiteâs control for a forced fumble.
That kind of dominance was also on display in the Eaglesâ win over the Saints last weekend. When Carter is at his best, the defense is going to look pretty good. The Eagles are hoping heâs turned a corner after a slow start. One awesome game is great and all but heâs gotta stack those good performances for this team to win at a high level.
6 – The adjustment to Vic Fangioâs adjustment
The Eagles used a lot of heavier fronts (5-man and even 6-man alignments) against a Saints offense thatâs using 11 personnel at just 33.3% of the time, which ranks 30th among NFL teams.
Under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen, whoâs taken over for Dave Canales, the Bucs are using 11 personnel at the third-highest rate in the league (per Sumer Sports).
The Eagles have struggled to defend out of 11 personnel.
The Bucs are only averaging 4.0 yards per carry on the ground this season. Bucky Irvingâs been their most efficient running threat; his 25 carries have gone for 154 yards, a 6.2 average.
Of course, Irving is questionable to play.
It should also be noted that Bucs third wide receiver Jalen McMillan has been ruled doubtful after unexpectedly being added to the injury report with a hamstring issue. His absence could impact their plans.
Fangioâs adjustments worked really, really well against the Saints. Part of that success seemed attributable to an especially convenient matchup for the Eagles, however. That might not be the same case here, so, weâll see how Fangio adjusts and fares in this setup.
7 – The revenge game factor
Thereâs no question that the Eagles entered the Saints game playing with an edge, especially on defense. That unit seemed out to prove they werenât as bad as they seemed to be after failing to both stop the run and rush the passer in the first two games.
The Eagles should also have a chip on their shoulder entering this matchup after getting beaten really bad in their last trip to Tampa. Knowing that the Week 5 bye is ahead, players should be ready to empty the tank.
8 – New punt returner
Britain Covey, arguably the best punt returner in the NFL, is on injured reserve. He said he thinks heâll miss at least six weeks.
Filling in for him is Cooper DeJean. The rookie defensive back was a threatening returner in college, average 13.1 yards and scoring one touchdown. His numbers wouldâve been even better if not for another punt return touchdown that was questionably called back.
While we wait for DeJeanâs defensive role to grow, itâll be nice to see what he can show as a punt returner. With the Eaglesâ offense banged up, getting some points (or at least favorable field positioning) from the special teams unit would be a really good boost.
9 – Itâs getting hot in here
Thereâs been some question if the game will be impacted by Hurricane Helene but it seems like the worst of the storm is clearing out before Sunday.
However, that does not mean weather will not be a factor. Hereâs the Weather.com forecast for Tampa:
Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High near 85F. Winds SE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
The Bucs opted to wear their white jerseys, putting the Eagles in their midnight green on the road. The Birds might be feeling hot in the Florida sun.
10 – Nick Sirianni game management
You just know thereâs going to be another big strategic decision or two weâll be talking about after this game.
