2019 NBA Re-Draft: Where Would Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, RJ Barrett Land?

Andy Bailey@@AndrewDBaileyFeatured Columnist IVDecember 25, 20232019 NBA Re-Draft: Where Would Zion Williamson, Ja Morant, RJ Barrett Land?0 of 15

Zion WilliamsonPhotos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images

Every NBA draft is met with instant analysis, grades and other reactions, but much of it ignores a pretty important fact:

None of us really knows who’ll be good and who won’t in the moment.

Even four years later, definitives about the 2019 class are probably premature, but we now have a pretty robust sample to draw from.

With the benefit of years of evidence, we can re-draft with more confidence in all of the players below than we had in 2019.

Placements can also be affected by changing philosophies about the game. Skill at all five positions is more important than it’s ever been. Size at guard and wing spots can be a huge advantage. Shooting remains vital.

With all of that, numbers and plenty of time spent watching the players from this group, this is how the lottery should play out now, if we assume the entire class is available and we’re dealing with 14 generic teams (rather than the order from 2019).

Outside the Lottery1 of 15

Jordan PooleBarry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images

Before we dive into the lottery, though, let’s look at a handful of players who nearly made the cut, in no particular order.

Jordan Poole is a good illustration for how quickly perception of a player can change. Last time we did this exercise, he seemed like an obvious lottery pick. Now that he’s in a more featured role with the Washington Wizards, he’s on track for one of the worst seasons of the three-point era (at least according to box plus/minus).The advanced numbers love Brandon Clarke more than most of his peers in this class, but his lack of playmaking and the fact that he’s recovering from a ruptured Achilles bump him from the lottery.If Coby White keeps playing the way he has the past few weeks, he may force his way into this group’s top 10-14 before the end of this season.Grant Williams is a solid, multipositional defender and a reliable catch-and-shoot option, but he’s a little too dependent on other playmakers to sneak into the lottery. De’Andre Hunter is here more because he was the fourth overall pick than the merits of his top-14 case. He’s dead last in the class in career wins over replacement player.There are probably others who deserve a mention, like Daniel Gafford, Matisse Thybulle and Talen Horton-Tucker, but it’s time to dive into the lottery.

14. Terance Mann2 of 15

Terance MannJeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Picked 48th

There are others outside this lottery who have gaudier individual numbers, but Terance Mann’s impact goes beyond points, rebounds and assists.

He has wing size, a willingness to defend multiple positions and the ability to at least be a nominal point guard. And that last one goes a long way on a team with ball-dominant wings and forwards like Kawhi Leonard and Paul George (a player archetype that’s fairly common).

His three-point shot has been off to start 2023-24, but Mann hit 37.7 percent of his triples over the three seasons prior to this one. That makes it easy to slide him off the ball and forces defenses to pay attention to him outside.

In a league that seemingly values versatility and malleability more with each passing season, Mann brings solid value above and beyond the 9.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists he’s averaged since the start of 2021-22.

In that same stretch, the Los Angeles Clippers are plus-2.2 points per 100 posessions with Mann on the floor and minus-0.3 when he’s off.

13. Rui Hachimura3 of 15

Rui HachimuraPhotos by Tyler Ross/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Picked 9th

He’s been up and down statistically and is one of the older players in this draft class, but soon-to-be-26-year-old Rui Hachimura is still a borderline top-10 pick.

At 6’8″ and 230 pounds, he has the size to play the 4 (and maybe even the 5 in small-ball lineups), but he still moves like a wing.

Combine that with a 37.5 three-point percentage since the start of 2021-22, and it’s easy to remain hopeful about Hachimura as he approaches his prime.

A little more production in categories other than points (particularly assists) would be nice, but Hachimura has been a double-figures scorer in each of his five campaigns.

12. Caleb Martin 4 of 15

Caleb MartinIssac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Undrafted

Caleb Martin is coming off a perception-altering postseason. In the Eastern Conference Finals alone, he averaged 19.3 points and 3.1 threes, while shooting 48.9 percent from three.

Now, he’s following up that run with his first regular-season double-digit scoring average of his career.

He’s also posting a career-high assist percentage as the Miami Heat have entrusted him with a little more playmaking.

Martin showed in the playoffs that he can get his own shot, especially if he’s on the floor with a star who requires the attention of the opposition’s top perimeter defenders. It’s that extra wrinkle of creation of passing that really makes him interesting now.

His brother, Cody, has long been the playmaker of the pair, but Caleb is proving that doesn’t have to be exclusive.

11. Max Strus5 of 15

Max StrusDavid Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Undrafted

Much like Martin, Max Strus has really expanded his game this season.

He already had value based on little more than his ability to get open off the ball and get threes up in volume. In 2023-24, he’s proving he can put the ball on the floor a little, draw defenders away from his teammates and then find them with the pass.

His three-point percentage is a little down from previous years, but career highs in points (13.7) and assists per game (3.8) make up for that.

On the other end, he isn’t likely to ever be known as a lock-down guy outside, but he has decent size for a wing and at least puts in the effort.

Adding that to his offensive production makes him a clear plus player.

10. P.J. Washington6 of 15

P.J. WashingtonBrock Williams-Smith/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Picked 12th

In terms of his scoring volume and efficiency, P.J. Washington has gotten off to a bit of a slow start, but he’s still providing the wide-ranging contributions that have made him unique.

On the season, he’s averaging 13.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.0 threes, 0.9 blocks and 0.9 steals in 30.2 minutes.

Those marks aren’t far off his career per-possession averages (15.5 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 2.1 threes, 1.2 blocks and 1.1 steals) in those six categories. No one in league history matched or exceeded all of those marks. If you round them down a tad, Kevin Durant is the only name added to the list.

Even if he never develops into a bona fide second or third option on a title contender, having a forward (and small-ball center) who can pile up numbers like that takes pressure off everyone.

9. Naz Reid7 of 15

Naz ReidTim Heitman/Getty Images

Originally Undrafted

It’s rare for a big man to be a legitimate Sixth Man of the Year candidate, but that’s exactly what Naz Reid has been for the Minnesota Timberwolves this season.

In just 22.5 minutes, Reid is averaging 13.6 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 threes, while shooting 38.8 percent from deep.

While he plays almost exclusively as a 4 or 5, he moves better than most bigs. You wouldn’t be drafting him to play him on the wing or anything, but you can at least trust him on perimeter switches more than other players of his size.

Reid is another player you aren’t likely to draft hoping for a top-two or -three option, but his steady contributions make him worth a top-nine spot here.

8. RJ Barrett8 of 15

RJ BarrettTyler Ross/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Picked 3rd

Based on his stats, there’s really no argument to have RJ Barrett here. There probably isn’t one to even have him in the lottery.

He’s 52nd in the draft class in career wins over replacement player. He’s never been anywhere near an average true shooting percentage. For his career, the New York Knicks are minus-1.7 points per 100 possessions with Barrett on the floor and plus-3.9 when he’s off.

He doesn’t seem to have a ton of feel, still has questionable shot selection and rarely makes his presence felt on defense.

So, why exactly is he still in the top eight?

At a certain point, you have to replace pedigree with reality, but there’s a reason Barrett was a top-three pick.

In theory, his size (6’6″ with a 6’10” wingspan), mobility and upside as a ball-handler make him an interesting potential point forward. On a team with Julius Randle and Jalen Brunson, he just hasn’t had many chances to explore that part of his game.

If drafted into a situation where he’s surrounded by shooting and is given some more opportunities to create, he’d still have a chance to live up to his pre-draft hype.

7. Keldon Johnson9 of 15

Keldon JohnsonRonald Cortes/Getty Images

Originally Picked 29th

Keldon Johnson’s scoring is down significantly from the career-high 22.0 points he averaged last season, but he’s still raising his stock with improved defense and significantly more playmaking.

On the year, the 6’5″ bully-ball wing is averaging 17.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.0 threes and 1.0 steals. It’s that third number that’s probably most intriguing for Johnson.

Having a 2 or 3 who can run the offense, or at least be a secondary playmaker, can make life significantly easier for guards. Getting them more catch-and-shoot opportunities can boost their scoring efficiency and spare them some of the wear and tear that comes from constantly being the point of attack.

His defensive consistency still leaves a little something to be desired, but he has the physical tools to be a plus on that end. Offense is more important, and he’s already checking boxes there.

6. Cameron Johnson10 of 15

Cameron JohnsonThearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Originally Picked 11th

Cameron Johnson may have lower upside than a lot of the players behind him on this list. There probably isn’t much more to be unearthed in the soon-to-be-28-year-old’s game.

But a big forward who can defend multiple positions and consistently hit threes at a well-above-average rate has plenty of value, and that’s what Johnson is right now.

At 6’8″ and with good feet, he can switch all over the perimeter. He’s hit 39.2 percent of his career three-point attempts (and 41.1 percent since the start of 2021-22). While it might be nice if he could create and distribute a bit more, he doesn’t suffer from an excess of confidence like a lot of other players at his level might.

Johnson knows what he is, doesn’t try to do too much and just plays solid, mistake-free basketball.

5. Nic Claxton11 of 15

Nic ClaxtonRocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Picked 31st

For the first few years of his career, Nic Claxton showed flashes of being the kind of rim-running and -protecting 5 who could positively impact the game without flashing a ton of skill.

With his ability to create and pass, Nikola Jokić may have permanently altered what it means to be a center, but aggressive rollers who can finish above the rim and be a deterrent on the other end still have a place in the league.

Since the start of 2022-23, that’s exactly what Claxton has done.

In that stretch, he’s averaging 12.5 points, 9.2 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 29.4 minutes while shooting 69.4 percent from the field.

In the same stretch, the Brooklyn Nets are plus-3.8 points per 100 possessions when Claxton’s on the floor and minus-2.7 when he’s off.

4. Tyler Herro12 of 15

Tyler HerroIssac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Picked 13th

There are some legitimate questions about Tyler Herro’s fit with the Miami Heat. Their run to the 2023 Finals gained steam after he went down with an injury, and the team’s been better when he’s off the floor this season.

But that’s a relatively new trend. He swung the point differential in the right direction over the two seasons prior to this one, and he has the kind of smooth, well-rounded 2-guard’s game that would’ve fit almost perfectly in the 1990s.

The modern touch for Herro is three-point volume, and he’s excellent in that category. For his career, Herro takes 6.5 three-point attempts per game and has hit 38.3 percent of those attempts. Stephen Curry, Buddy Hield, Duncan Robinson and Klay Thompson are the only players in league history who match or exceed both marks.

Of course, Herro’s defense leaves a lot to be desired, but there’s plenty of time for him to become average on that end. He turns 24 next month, and one of his comps, Devin Booker, didn’t really get a feel for that end of the floor till he was around that age.

Since the start of 2021-22, Herro has averaged 20.6 points, 4.1 assists and 2.8 threes. You have to be pretty nitpicky to have an issue with that kind of production from a player his age.

3. Darius Garland13 of 15

Darius GarlandBrian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Picked 5th

After a rocky rookie campaign, Darius Garland quickly became one of the game’s more dynamic shooters and playmakers for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Since the start of 2020-21, he’s put up 20.5 points, 7.4 assists and 2.3 threes while shooting 39.2 percent from deep.

He’s a near-ideal combination of new- and old-school point guard principles.

Garland is seemingly just as comfortable organizing possessions and getting everyone touches as he is taking over as a scorer and pull-up specialist.

In today’s increasingly positionless game, it’s important for everyone to be willing and able to occasionally play off the ball, too. Garland has proven he can do that since Donovan Mitchell came over to the Cavs.

Like several others here, there are still plenty of questions about Garland’s defense, but he’s proven capable of being a lead ball-handler. That should be higher on every front office’s list of priorities.

The only thing keeping him from a top-two spot is the superstar potential of the players ahead of him.

2. Ja Morant14 of 15

Ja MorantJonathan Bachman/NBAE via Getty Images

Originally Picked 2nd

After wrapping up his 25-game suspension, Ja Morant quickly reminded everyone of just how absurdly high his ceiling is (and how fun it is to watch him elevate toward it).

In his first game back, Ja had 34 points on 12-of-24 shooting, eight assists, six rebounds, two steals and a block. And he was completely unstoppable down the stretch.

In the fourth quarter alone, he had 14 points and was able to slash his way around any would-be deterrents. Once he got to the paint, the hangtime that’s made him so dangerous throughout his career was clearly still there. Seemingly every time he goes up, the defenders who go with him return to the floor before he does. And his soft touch when finishing out of those leaps was there.

Even with any potential off-court concerns like the ones that led to his suspension, Morant’s pure talent is too much to pass up.

1. Zion Williamson15 of 15

Zion WilliamsonJared C. Tilton/Getty Images

Originally Picked 1st

Like Morant, there are issues that have little to do with Zion Williamson’s actual game that might give some pause at the top of the draft.

Injuries have plagued him throughout his career. He doesn’t look quite as explosive as he did in college. And as recently as the In-Season Tournament in Las Vegas, local reporting called his diet and conditioning into question.

But even with all of that as part of the equation, Zion is 14th all time in career points per game and fourth in career points per 75 possessions.

He’s a little down in both of those categories this season, but not to a degree that should be alarming. Plus, it still feels like there’s plenty of room for growth on defense and as a creator.

If those skills come along and Zion maintains his ability to slice to the rim at precisely the right moments, adjust in midair to defenders and finish with touch or force, he has MVP upside.