2023 NBA Re-Draft: Flagging Potential Steals and Busts Behind Wemby
2023 NBA Re-Draft: Flagging Potential Steals and Busts Behind Wemby0 of 30
Dereck Lively II and Victor WembanyamaPhotos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images
Is nearly one full season enough for us to re-draft the 2023 NBA draft? You better believe it.
This exercise will follow the standard re-draft protocols—to an extent. Like usual, we are not taking into account team needs at each slot. This is solely about selecting the best player available. However, because these rookies have only one season under their belt, the new draft order will not always be a reflection of the best players right now.
This year’s performances help shape the results, but we’re taking these newbies based on who we want for the rest of their careers. Too much remains unknown about (basically) every player to ascribe absolute value to their performance in 2023-24 alone.
Rolling with this approach frees us up to take chances and gloss over unflattering or potentially troubling debut seasons in favor of long-term outlooks and inklings. That’s fun!
Final note: Only players from the 2023 draft class are up for consideration here. Rookies like Chet Holmgren (2022 class) and Duop Reath (2018 class) will not be part of the festivities.
1. San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama1 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 1
Sticking with Victor Wembanyama at No. 1 isn’t just an easy call. It’s the only call.
Wemby isn’t so much a superstar prospect as a superstar, period. Some elements of his game looked rough out of the gate, and he could stand to increase the speed with which he makes decisions on the ball. But it took less than half the season for him to establish himself as a “What if a one-man defensive system could splash in off-the-bounce threes and drop live-dribble dimes?” cornerstone.
That is terrifying…ly awesome.
Projecting his ceiling is impossible, because that implies one exists. He has no singular comp. Who is the last player to emerge as someone whom you expect not just to contend for but actually win the Defensive Player of the Year and MVP awards in the same season, and to do so multiple times?
To say Wembanyama is breaking basketball and the brains tasked with analyzing it would be an understatement. Even after a choppy start, he’s on track to finish with one of the 10 highest value over replacement player (VORP) scores among rookies in league history.
Since 2014, Nikola Jokić is the only first-year player to spit out a better luck-adjusted player estimate using a box prior regularized on-off (LEBRON) than Wemby, according to BBall-Index. Rumor has it that Jokić turned out OK.
2. Charlotte Hornets: Brandon Miller2 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 2
Sticking with Brandon Miller at No. 2 is not inarguable. Amen Thompson and Scoot Henderson may stake their claim to this spot in future re-drafts.
In the meantime, Miller’s two-way balance wins out.
Injuries up and down the Charlotte Hornets roster as well as some midseason sell-offs thrust Miller into a larger-than-anticipated offensive role. It didn’t always look good on him. His playmaking in traffic and against pressure is shaky.
But Miller is poised when navigating tight spaces on-ball and has shown a knack for finding and generating enough space to get shots off from his sweet spots. A 47-plus percent clip on pull-up twos is an encouraging harbinger. So is his plug-and-play utility.
Despite taking on more complicated usage, more than one-third of Miller’s field-goal attempts come as catch-and-fire threes, which he’s hitting at an ultra-reasonable 38 percent rate.
All the while, the 21-year-old has showcased real defensive chops. He isn’t quite busting out head-on-a-swivel awareness, but the pressure he puts on his assignments can force the ball out of their hands, if not prevent them from ever getting it in the first place.
Drawing comparisons between prospects and entrenched NBA talent is inexact. They can miss the mark or become outdated pretty quickly. In Miller’s case, however, the parallels between him and Paul George are spot-on.
3. Portland Trail Blazers: Amen Thompson3 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 4
Bill this as an overreaction to Scoot Henderson’s rookie season if you must. I promise you that it’s entirely about Amen Thompson.
Rookies aren’t supposed to be this good on defense, but Thompson often looks dominant on that end. The scope of what he does isn’t just wide; it’s all-encompassing. He will chase around movement shooters, shoot absurd gaps to contest would-be open jumpers, teleport into passing lanes, disrupt handles helping from the corner, delete looks at the basket after going step-for-step—the list somehow goes on and on.
Thompson is equally impressive on offense, if only because he and the Houston Rockets have found effective workarounds to his finite range. He goes at warp speed on the break, flies in for offensive boards and put-backs, screens like he means it and runs hand-offs as if he entered the league as a polished big-man prospect rather than floor-general revelation.
Alperen ĹžengĂĽn’s ankle injury invited—perhaps necessitated—the Rockets giving Thompson more on-ball agency. You can see the vision of what he’ll become when afforded enough runway. There is change of pace and direction to his handle, and the blow-by decision-making will keep defenses on tilt.
Jump shooting is, as predicted, Thompson’s swing skill. If he ever sniffs league average on set threes, you’re looking at a potential megastar. Even if he doesn’t, the defensive tools and off-ball offensive usage will ensure he remains building-block material.
4. Houston Rockets: Scoot Henderson4 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 3
Fire off your plus-minus jokes at large. They will not compel me to rethink this.
If anything, I’d still consider taking Scoot Henderson second or third overall before bumping him down this ladder. His numbers aren’t pretty, but the bones of a highly impactful playmaker and scorer are intact.
Henderson has repeatedly shown the ability to score at every level, with changes in live-dribble speeds that allow him to find or create space inside cramped environs. His finishing needs to improve, but he can get to the basket almost at will. The vision is undeniable, the pull-up jumper looks the part, and he’s honed his patience and process coming around screens as the season wears on.
This development is beginning to bear out beyond the eye test, too. Those not-pretty numbers—well, they’re looking prettier these days.
Learning curves for rookie point guards remain steep. Henderson also dealt with a right ankle injury to start the season and has needed to traverse a constantly shifting supporting cast. His performance under the circumstances may not be picture perfect, but it’s hardly discouraging enough to negate the generational-prospect buzz he garnered at this time last year.
5. Detroit Pistons: Ausar Thompson5 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 5
Fitting Ausar Thompson effectively into an offensive ecosystem currently requires more tried-and-true floor-spacing than the Detroit Pistons offer now. That is a very real limitation—one that likely won’t just dissipate after he canned 18.6 percent of his threes and 59.7 percent of his free throws as a rookie.
Still, much like his twin brother Amen Thompson, Ausar has shown the ability to contribute elsewhere before blood clot issues prematurely ended his season. He sprints out on the break, hits the offensive glass and pumps into and passes out of drives.
Among nearly 150 players who have finished as many downhill attacks as Ausar this season, Luka Dončić, Ayo Dosunmu, Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell and Payton Pritchard are the only other players shooting better than 55 percent with an assist rate north of 10.
Squishy offensive fit in mind, Thompson’s defense is enough to preserve his top-five consideration on its own. Detroit had him defending pretty much everyone.
The breadth and difficulty of his assignments seldom mutes his ubiquity. You feel Thompson’s brand of defense with your eyes. He will bulldoze through half-assed screens, and tossing entry passes and kickouts with him in the vicinity is a one-way ticket to turnovers and frazzled transition defense.
Someone who profiles as one of the league’s most versatile All-Defensive staples is worth a top-five pick, regardless of how incomplete his offense might be.
6. Orlando Magic: Bilal Coulibaly6 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 7
Certain players to follow have a higher ceiling as on-ball creators than Bilal Coulibaly, whose season ended after 63 appearances thanks to a right wrist fracture. Others have spent their rookie season delivering more obvious positive impacts.
This is me, not caring.
Don’t rule out Coulibaly developing more on-ball rizz over time. His driving game can be chaotic and stall out before the basket, but he’s not afraid to put the ball on the deck from the baseline or decision-make after a few dribbles. He’s also good for a pull-up triple every once in a while.
Yet even if Coulibaly never graduates to featured- or co-featured-option territory, he has the tools to leave a dent on offense anyway.
He is a blur in transition and has flashed rock-solid spatial awareness away from the ball. His comfort getting to and working from the corners is big—he shot 42.9 percent from the left corner and 35.2 percent from the right—and he’s even emerged as a sneaky screen-setter who can spray the ball in different directions after catching it off rolls and slips to the middle of the floor.
Whatever skepticism permeates his offensive trajectory is offset by his defensive impact. The Washington Wizards routinely had him taking impossible assignments as a teenager. He not only lived to the tell the tale, but he made life difficult on everyone from point-of-attack guards to larger wings and actual bigs whom he knocked off-tilt with pre-ball pressure.
7. Indiana Pacers: Jaime Jaquez Jr.7 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 18
People tend to talk about Jaime Jaquez Jr. as if he’s a finished product. He’s only 23.
Yes, that’s on the older end of the rookie spectrum. But since when did having a positive impact before your 24th birthday become a bad thing? Or imply you can’t get better?
You’d like Jaquez to drill more threes. And hey, he might! He’s turned in some hot stretches from deep at times as a rookie, and his 80-plus percent shooting at the foul line is encouraging.
Jaquez is connective, complementary and versatile. He is a savvy floor navigator away from the ball who can uncork shifty footwork when on it. His offense is a unique blend of force, finesse and technique—with the efficiency to match. He’s an above-average scorer at the rim (60th percentile), from the mid-range (72nd percentile), in transition (57th percentile) and on post-ups (74th percentile).
Sturdy-as-hell defense seals Jaquez’s case above players with starrier offensive ceilings. His off-ball awareness is a steadying constant—just like his activity. Jaquez is second on the Heat in total deflections and is ready to help or ruin kickouts, lobs and entry passes. He usually takes on assignments who are taller and burlier than him, and he almost never looks overtaxed.
Some might be more inclined to roll the dice on Cam Whitmore, Taylor Hendricks or Jarace Walker in this spot. That’s honestly fine. But Jaquez isn’t necessarily anywhere near his own final form. When measuring both short- and long-term outlooks, he deserves top-half-of-the-lottery consideration.
8. Washington Wizards: Brandin Podziemski8 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 19
Brandin Podziemski, like Jaime Jaquez Jr., is often discussed in geriatric terms. Such is the perception of anyone who plays more than one year of college basketball.
Note: Podziemski just turned 21 at the end of February. Wondering whether his developmental arc has enough upward mobility is frankly bonkers.
Prospective limitations have to be part of the calculus. Podziemski is not big or long or explosive. He is not someone on whom you lean to generate from-scratch looks when things bog down to a slog. His middling free-throw shooting is bizarre. But the effect he has on the game is all-encompassing.
Knife through defenses away from the ball with deliberate, surgical paths? Done. Defend star guards when called upon with a hustle and grit that eclipses some of his physical constrictions? Check. Keep the offense humming as both a driver and passer? No sweat.
Putting Podziemski any lower requires doubting his bandwidth to become more than a dabbler in everything, master of some things. That is perhaps not unreasonable. But his presence in some of the Golden State Warriors’ most effective units is proof he can uplift without conventional domination. That’s tantalizing enough for me, both immediately and for years to come.
9. Utah Jazz: Cam Whitmore9 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 20
Taking Cam Whitmore in the top 10 constitutes a detour into the ultra-unknown.
To be clear: It’s unfair to view him through the lens where he was actually drafted. A perfect, inexplicable storm of circumstances led to his precipitous draft-day fall. If more squads outside the top seven last summer weren’t angling for instant gratification, Whitmore never would have slipped so far. That much is clear after watching his debut campaign with the Houston Rockets.
Sub-400-minutes samples aren’t unambiguously revealing, and his lower-body injuries are something to monitor. But a 6’7″ wing who’s comfortable generating on-ball space and taking difficult shots and is hard-wired to try dunking on everyone is a functional commodity.
Whitmore ferries further intrigue with his prospective fit inside the larger pecking order. His self-creation is enamoring, but it’s neither an efficient nor prevalent part of his armory (yet). His accessory shooting has floated a lot of the first-year highs. He’s downing more than 42 percent of his spot-up threes and relentlessly attacking in transition.
Tunnel vision is ingrained into Whitmore’s offensive instincts to some degree. Whether he has the feel to be a secondary table-setter is debatable. But he’s not a caps-lock BALL-STOPPER, either. He will make quick second passes off the catch.
Just one other rookie on record (minimum five games played) has averaged as many points per 36 minutes while matching Whitmore’s efficiency on twos and threes: Zion Williamson. His scoring package is accompanied by the size and physicality to rumble with bigger wing assignments on the other end.
Bake in that Whitmore is only 19 years old, and it makes sense to bet on his long-term growth—current warts and potential red flags be damned.
10. Dallas Mavericks: Cason Wallace10 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 10
Slotting Cason Wallace here can be a little disarming when contemplating the long-term implications. Isn’t he basically just a 6’4″ three-and-D wing?
Kind of. Sort of. But not really. Which is the entire point.
Cracking a contender’s regular rotation right out of the gate is nothing if not concrete evidence of impact. Wallace defends with the strength and pressure of someone taller than 6’4″ and the workload of someone with more experience. His catalog of assignments spans a bunch of star guards, and the Oklahoma City Thunder seldom feel compelled to throw him help.
Almost half of Wallace’s shots come as spot-up threes. That’s a feature, not a bug. Especially when he’s finding nylon on more than 44 percent of those looks.
Teams need defensive try-hards who don’t demand offensive-possession monopolies. And if you’re worried about Wallace broadening his horizons, I have some advice: don’t be.
Though he does need to heighten his attack-with-intent-to-score mode, he can put defenses in rotation when going downhill. And it’s not just when he’s already on the move in wide-open spaces. He can make stuff happen from dead stops, and his modest scoring portfolio is speckled with moments of neat-o footwork and passing amid congestion.
In all honesty, you could talk me into putting Wallace a few ticks higher. I’m much less inclined to put him any lower. Effective plug-and-play-plus more 20-year-olds are that hard to find on the perimeter.
11. Orlando Magic: Taylor Hendricks11 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 9
Dropping Taylor Hendricks a few rungs down from his June 2023 spot feels icky. He doesn’t have the wire-to-wire sample relative to many of his contemporaries, but his early-season court time was more about the Utah Jazz’s makeup than his ability.
Hendricks’ role has increased exponentially following Utah’s trade-deadline makeover. The extra run has validated most of his predraft expectations.
Despite standing “just” 6’9″, Hendricks can tussle with bigs of all shapes and sizes. His rim protection alone is going to shine, even in a rotation with Walker Kessler. He will deter and muck up shots both as the primary line of defense and rotating helper.
Utah has also tested Hendricks’ depth as a wing stopper, which has yielded drool-inducing moments. Hendricks can get caught on screens but is quick to course-correct, and his lateral strides allow him not only to switch but start off on advantage creator-types.
Arguing for a better draft stock is tricky when looking at who’s already off the board. It’s not impossible, though. It’ll ultimately hinge on his offense.
Hendricks looks like someone who can subsist on set threes and transition touches, but he’s fluid enough to track the development and volume of his driving (and standstill) counters—pull-up jumper included.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Keyonte George12 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 16
Keyonte George’s re-draft stock either needs to be higher or lower than this depending on the night.
Settling on a four-spot jump just feels right. It might even be too conservative.
Resist the temptation to harp on his efficiency. He has taken on an outsized role as the Utah Jazz’s primary floor general, and the meat and potatoes of what he does looks the part.
My confidence level in George increasing his rim frequency and efficiency is admittedly not very high. HIs perimeter touch will be fine. The way he already finagles his way around screens and to his spots is methodical without veering into not-fast-enough territory. His composure when sizing up opponents in one-on-one situations is veteran-esque.
Playmaking figures to be a determinate skill for George. Is he more of a floor general or second guard? Right now, it looks like the former.
George is already stringing together entire games with a better half-court process and fewer turnovers. His swing passes are more decisive, and his lobs look more accurate. He’s not telegraphing as many of his kick-outs. And the placement of his pocket passes are tougher to predict and derail.
Positioning George behind less-central offensive creators (so far) like Cason Wallace and teammate Taylor Hendricks is a hedge against his efficiency as on-ball scorer. Those questions followed him out of Baylor, and even as he looks the part, they persist now.
13. Toronto Raptors: Dereck Lively II13 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 12
Injuries and the Dallas Mavericks’ trade-deadline makeover wound up curtailing what was mostly a standout rookie performance from Dereck Lively II. He hasn’t played since the end of March because of a right knee injury, and he might be done at least for the regular season.
This does little (if anything) to diminish Lively’s big-picture trajectory. He eventually hit a rookie wall, but he is among the most fundamentally sound players from his class. As I wrote when breaking down his All-Rookie case:
“His offensive floor awareness is kind of surreal. He knows how to navigate the half-court after connecting on or slipping screens, but he’s also a whiz at positioning himself away from the ball while Luka DonÄŤić or Kyrie Irving go to work.
“Most of Lively’s offensive portfolio is populated with the usual big-dude scoring opportunities: dives, putbacks, transition touches, etc. But he has made some waves off center-floor catches and is shooting over 50 percent on (a modest number of) hook shots.
“And then there’s Lively’s defense, which belies his lack of NBA experience. His instincts around the basket are bankable, and he’s not afraid to challenge poster attempts. Opponents are shooting 58.5 percent against him at the hoop—a rock-solid mark that’s right in line with fellow Dallas Mavericks big Daniel Gafford (57 percent).
“Lively is not solely a paint-bound big, though. He doesn’t have the quickest feet in space but can guard higher up the floor without much issue anyway. He is comfortable turning his hips on a dime and knows how to use his length when going stride-for-stride downhill. His head-on-a-swivel awareness in the pick-and-roll, including as he backpedals, also suggests he could become a regular member of the 1.5-steals-and-1.5-blocks-per-game club.”
14. New Orleans Pelicans: Jarace Walker14 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 8
Limited run with the Indiana Pacers this season complicates Jarace Walker’s evaluation.
Predraft impressions have mostly proved accurate. The defensive and playmaking IQ is clearly there. His fit inside lineups in which he cannot function as the primary screener can get finicky, but with the caveat that these splits come on teensy-tiny volume, he’s canned over 38 percent of his treys and nearly 89 percent of his free throws.
Yanking him all the way outside the lottery goes a touch too far—although Gradey Dick and GG Jackson II render it a close call.
Walker’s defensive mystique is inevitably too magnetic for me to downgrade any further. He blurs the line between wing and big—not in a way that merely makes him switchable, but in a guard-the-best-perimeter-player-on-the-other-team-while-also-pitching-in-at-the-rim sort of vein.
15. Atlanta Hawks: Gradey Dick15 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 13
Gradey Dick has rebounded nicely from a rough start punctuated by virtually no playing time. His motion shooting is already a quality half-court safety valve, and he’s hinted at nifty counters when attacking off the catch.
While Dick is by no means a lockdown defender, he has good positional size and knows how to leverage it in space and on rotations. If he ratchets up his on-ball playmaking a notch or two, he’ll make his original draft position (and this one) look silly.
16. Utah Jazz: GG Jackson II16 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 45
GG Jackson II has already emerged as one of the biggest steals from this draft. He might even be the single biggest steal (at least in the non-Victor Wembanyama division).
Questions about his on-ball dynamism cap just how high I’m willing to slot him—for now. More specifically, we need to see how his offense translates in higher volume to lineups with Jaren Jackson Jr. and another big on the floor.
Still, there should be little debate over his potential value. He’s a 6’9″ forward who routinely defended everyone from Stephen Curry and De’Aaron Fox to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham to LeBron James and Paolo Banchero while nailing almost 37 percent of his catch-and-fire triples.
17. Los Angeles Lakers: Jordan Hawkins17 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 14
Jordan Hawkins has seen his rookie-year role fluctuate. But during his on-court stints for the New Orleans Pelicans, he’s bent defenses with quick-fire shooting and movement from all over the floor.
There appears to be something to his defense as well. He needs to get stronger, but he does a nice job of sliding his feet, turning his hips and maintaining verticality when contesting shots on the move.
18. Miami Heat: Anthony Black18 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 6
Tumbling from sixth overall to No. 18 implies a certain failure. That isn’t what this is for Anthony Black. On the contrary, I’m fully prepared to eat crow down the line.
Black’s defensive floor navigation and anticipation are next-level for a rookie. He also counteracts some of his spacing limitations at the other end with timely cuts and misdirection away from the ball.
The jumper remains Black’s Achilles heel. He’s converted over 39 percent of his triples, albeit on negligible volume. Defenses don’t treat him as a threat, which complicates his capacity to run as a point guard in half-court settings.
19. Golden State Warriors: Toumani Camara19 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 52
A rib injury ended Toumani Camara’s season near the end of March, but he left an impression on Portland Trail Blazers fans—and Phoenix Suns fans—long before that.
Figuring out his role on offense will be a challenge. Cuts and put-backs will get him only so far. However, the defense alone is terrifying in the best way possible. Camara cut his teeth on guard and wing assignments, but he’s strong enough to handle fringe bigs and some actual skyscrapers.
If he can improve upon his three-point clip (33.7 percent) while maintaining current volume—and perhaps get more usage as a screener—Camara will solicit closing-lineup consideration on more competitive versions of the Blazers (or other teams).
20. Houston Rockets: Trayce Jackson-Davis20 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 57
Trayce Jackson-Davis looms as another mega steal. His rim protection and rebounding are constants, and he knows how to position himself off other non-shooters (or questionable marksmen) in the Golden State Warriors’ frontcourt. He has even added a layer of playmaking to the rotation with hand-offs and swift passes to the corners.
Take this with a metric ton of salt for reasons that’ll become obvious shortly, but: Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama are the only other rookies since 1973-74 to log at least 1,000 minutes and match TJD’s defensive rebounding, assist and block rates.
21. Brooklyn Nets: Marcus Sasser21 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 25
Marcus Sasser is first-team “Imagine Where He’d Have Been Drafted If He Were 2-4 Inches Taller.”
Outside shooting is the 23-year-old’s business. And business is booming.
Keyonte George and Victor Wembanyama are the only rookies who have buried more pull-up triples than Sasser. He swishes these looks at a nearly 38 percent clip, which is elite efficiency regardless of experience.
At 6’2″, Sasser will be picked on defensively, and virtually every two-point attempt seems to be waaaay harder than it should be. However, Sasser by and large makes it work. He has quick hands that produce strips on defense, and his antidote to attacking the trees on offense is a nose for above-the-break trailers as well as the semi-occasional circus shot.
22. Brooklyn Nets: Ben Sheppard22 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 26
I’m stepping out on a bit of a limb here. It’s pretty sturdy, though. So feel free to join me.
Yours truly has a soft spot for wings who fight like hell when tracking down loose balls, provide timely help off the corners, chase around movement shooters and secondary ball-handlers and deny all types of entry passes without ever taking a breath, slowing down or regard for the angles at which their ankles are allowed to bend.
This is Ben Sheppard to a T.
He’ll need to start torching twine on more of his wide-open threes, but I think he’ll get there. His release isn’t alarmingly slow, and he’s shooting over 88 percent from the charity stripe.
23. Sacramento Kings: Rayan Rupert23 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 43
Laugh at Rayan Rupert climbing this high despite playing less than 600 total minutes thus far if you must. Just know that it took serious restraint on my part not to plop him right outside the lottery, somewhere in Jordan Hawkins re-draft territory.
Rupert is more polished and versatile on offense than advertised. His nearly 40 percent clip from deep comes on minuscule volume, but it includes heat-checky attempts off the bounce. His release on the catch is faster than expected, particularly from the corners.
There are measures of depth and flourish to his passing, too. He will make quick swings but also unleash cross-court lasers off live dribbles.
Combine this with the length to match up with four positions (albeit not necessarily versus stars), and you have a 19-year-old who may end up cementing himself as one of the biggest post-lottery steals of his class.
24. Sacramento Kings: Leonard Miller24 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 33
Leonard Miller has spent barely any time on the floor for the Minnesota Timberwolves, but he has cobbled together filthy moments during his time with the G-League’s Iowa Wolves.
Standing 6’10”, the 20-year-old is stronger than he looks. He screens and seals and goes up for boards like a burlier big. His floor game is a work in progress, but when it’s humming in tandem with his outside shot. you can envision him soaking up reps as a hybrid 3-4-5.
Consider this my plea for Minnesota to try trotting out Miller alongside Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid or Karl-Anthony Towns during garbage time. You know, just to see what happens.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Kris Murray25 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 23
Betting on Kris Murray’s offensive polish is tougher this side of the draft. His outside shooting splits are ghastly. He’s downing under 25 percent of his above-the-break threes—and under 23 percent since the All-Star break.
Murray’s overall offensive processing speed has too often stagnated. Is it indecision? Mechanics? Adjusting to NBA defenses? Whatever it is, watching him on the catch has too frequently mirrored buffering dial-up internet.
That rate of loading has started to get better, though. He is much quicker at turning corners with the ball and has increased his efficiency inside the restricted area since the break. Will his outside clip follow suit? Does he have more dimensions to offer on the ball? Time will tell.
Bumping him out of the first-round of the re-draft altogether is entirely possible, if not eminently reasonable. But his one-on-one defense has held up pretty well, and not against the easiest assignments. He gets the long-term benefit of the doubt…for now.
26. Indiana Pacers: Brice Sensabaugh26 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 28
Brice Sensabaugh’s offensive aesthetics come close to demanding a (much) higher placement in this re-draft.
There is a distinct Kawhi Leonard-meets-Jimmy Butler tempo and aura to how he plots his course and shot selection inside the arc. Defenses have already started devolving into tizzies when he catches the ball, and he’s currently putting together a mini stretch in which his efficiency lives up to the visuals.
Will he play a lick of defense…ever? That is the swing question, and it confines his re-draft stock to a largely lateral trajectory. To be honest, that’s a testament to the look and feel of his offense relative to the modest sample and season-long efficiency he’s churned out.
27. Charlotte Hornets: Kobe Bufkin27 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 15
Kobe Bufkin has far from actualized his jack-of-all trades package in the NBA so far. But that’s of minor concern when he’s appeared in only 15 games and in a situation not conducive to backcourt opportunities.
The 20-year-old still has the functional bones of someone who can shimmy between both guard spots at both ends. His three-point accuracy will tick up, he already has good energy on the defensive end, and there is a contortionist element to the pace and angles at which he attacks on drives.
28. Utah Jazz: Jett Howard28 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 11
Raise your hand if you know what to do with Jett Howard.
No rookie drafted in the first round aside from Dariq Whitehead has logged fewer minutes than Howard. That in itself is at least partially concerning.
Indeed, the Orlando Magic have short-term fish to fry. They also desperately need competent shooters, and Howard is big enough at 6’8″ not to exacerbate the backcourt congestion.
Others will nudge the 20-year-old out of first-round territory. I won’t fight anyone who does. But his G League tape with the Osceola Magic spotlights someone who can relocate and drain off-balance triples from all over the floor. That’s enough to float draft equity this far outside the lottery.
29. Indiana Pacers: Julian Strawther29 of 30
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Originally Picked: No. 29
Julian Strawther’s efficiency from behind the arc doesn’t currently show it, but he’s going to be a lethal tough-triple maker. His comfort and cadence flying around screens and launching ultra-deep treys is beyond convincing. Defenses already treat him like a bankable threat.
Whether Strawther ascends future re-drafts is contingent upon the rest of his game.
His offense beyond long-range sniping has actually impressed yours truly. He doesn’t boast detonative speed, but he keeps defenders guessing inside the arc by maintaining his dribble and tossing up abrupt flip shots.
At 6’7″, Strawther should offer plenty of positional versatility on the less glamorous end. But he doesn’t—not right now, at least. His foot speed is fine, and he can helicopter into opponent blind spots to increase pressure and force turnovers, but for the most part, it seems like he’s best served guarding smaller, stationary players.
30. Los Angeles Clippers: Craig Porter Jr.30 of 30
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Originally Picked: Undrafted
Noah Clowney, Dariq Whitehead, Emoni Bates, Sidy Cissoko, Tristan VukÄŤević and Jalen Pickett received the heaviest consideration for this final spot. Clowney looms as the prospect whom I’m prepared to regret leaving off the most.
Craig Porter Jr. earns the nod by virtue of everything he showcased during the Cleveland Cavaliers’ short-handed reign of terror earlier this year. And he would appear higher if not for almost the complete absence of a three-point jumper.
Still, even without notable long-range volume, Porter has revealed himself to be a stellar game manager. He is excellent at maintaining his dribble, wriggling in and out of tight spaces and putting defenders on his back hip—qualities that set up an effective mid-range jumper along with pocket passes and lobs.
Opposing scorers try to exploit Porter’s 6’2″ frame at the other end. They will sometimes succeed. But he’s a worker bee. His ball pressure on the perimeter lets him hang with slightly bigger guards, and he gets up for more contests at the basket than you’d think.
What the 24-year-old likely lacks in upside, he makes up for with an undeviating steadiness. When you consider he wasn’t even drafted last June, this amounts to mind-melting value.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report’s Grant Hughes.
