2024 Daytona Duels odds, drivers, lineup, start time: Surprising NASCAR picks, predictions from proven model

Qualifying for the Daytona 500 is a unique experience, with single-car time trials determining the front row and a pair of 150-mile twin heats used to determine the rest of the Daytona 500 starting grid. Joey Logano and Michael McDowell put a pair of Fords in the front row on Wednesday and now the 2024 Bluegreen Vacations Duels will run on Thursday to determine the rest of the 2024 Daytona 500 starting order. The first race will start at 7 p.m. ET and each of the two heats is scheduled for 60 laps around the 2.5-mile oval at Daytona International Speedway.

Joey Logano is the +650 favorite in the first race according to the latest 2024 Daytona Duels odds, while Kyle Busch is the +650 favorite in Daytona Duel 2. Busch, Logano and Denny Hamlin (+900 in Duel 2) are the only three active drivers with three previous wins in the Bluegreen Vacations Duels. Before scouring the 2024 Daytona Duels starting lineups and making any 2024 Bluegreen Vacations Duels predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Daytona Duels picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.  

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

McClure’s model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. 

All told, the model has nailed a whopping 15 winners since 2021 and nine last year alone. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2024 Duels at Daytona 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2024 Bluegreen Vacations Duels leaderboards.

Top 2024 Daytona Duels predictionsFor the 2024 Bluegreen Vacations Duels, the model is high on Tyler Reddick in Duel 1, even though he’s a 16-1 longshot in the latest 2024 Daytona Duels odds. Now entering his fifth season as a full-time driver in the NASCAR Cup Series, Reddick has made the playoffs the last three seasons in a row and is a five-time winner over the last two seasons.

He’s coming off a career-best sixth-place finish in the 2023 NASCAR standings and he’ll be looking to make the jump to serious championship contender in 2024 after winning the NASCAR Xfinity Series in 2018 and 2019. Reddick has crashed in four of his five career Daytona 500 starts and hasn’t cracked the top 25 yet in The Great American Race but he was the runner-up in the 2022 Coke Zero Sugar 400 and he’ll be eager to show that he’s continuing to improve as a superspeedway driver.

And a massive shocker: Joey Logano, the top Vegas favorite, stumbles big-time and barely cracks the top 10 in Duel 1. There are far better values in the 2024 Daytona Duels starting lineup. With Logano already locked into pole position, there isn’t going to be much incentive here for him to race hard and risk an accident or engine failure that could force him to scramble the backup car and wind up in the back of the pack.

Expect the 2015 Daytona 500 winner and two-time NASCAR Cup Series champion to use this as an opportunity to test his car a little bit in traffic and not much more. Logano and the team at Ford broke an 11-year streak of Chevy winning the time trials and he won’t be trying to do anything to jeopardize his first Daytona 500 pole win on Thursday. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboards at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 NASCAR at Daytona picksThe model is also targeting five other drivers with 2024 Daytona Duel odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag in their heats, including a 50-1 longshot. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Daytona Duels 2024, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR Daytona Duels odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 Daytona Duels leaderboards, all from the model that has called 15 winners.

2024 Daytona Duels odds, drivers, lineupsSee full 2024 Bluegreen Vacations Duels picks at SportsLine

Daytona Duel 1 odds, lineup

Joey Logano +650
Chase Elliott +750
Kyle Larson +750
Chris Buescher +800
Austin Dillon +1100
Ross Chastain +1300
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +1400
Martin Truex Jr. +1400
Ty Gibbs +1400
Alex Bowman +1500
Tyler Reddick +1600
Erik Jones +1600
Ryan Preece +1800
Daniel Suarez +2500
Todd Gilliland +2500
Corey LaJoie +2500
Carson Hocevar +3500
Daniel Hemric +4000
Jimmie Johnson +4000
Anthony Alfredo +5000
JJ Yeley +8000

Daytona Duel 2 odds, lineup

Kyle Busch +650
Brad Keselowski +750
Ryan Blaney +800
William Byron +800
Denny Hamlin +900
Bubba Wallace +1000
Michael McDowell +1100
Austin Cindric +1100
Christopher Bell +1200
Chase Briscoe +2000
AJ Allmendinger +2000
Josh Berry +2200
Harrison Burton +2500
Riley Herbst +2500
Noah Gragson +3000
Justin Haley +3300
John Hunter Nemechek +3500
David Ragan +4000
Zane Smith +5000
Kaz Grala +6600
BJ McLeod +8000