2024 Kentucky Derby horses, futures, odds, date: Expert who hit 10 Derby-Oaks Doubles gives out picks

Todd Pletcher owns the record for most Kentucky Derby starts for a trainer at 64. He’s won twice, in 2010 and 2017, and has an opportunity to pick up a third victory at the 2024 Kentucky Derby, which will get underway from Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 4. The 2024 Kentucky Derby odds list Fierceness, a Pletcher-trained horse, as the 3-1 favorite. Fierceness has won two of his last three starts, which includes a victory at the Florida Derby on March 30. Other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to watch in the Kentucky Derby 2024 field include Sierra Leone (7-2), Catching Freedom (8-1) and Forever Young (10-1).

Should your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets include backing one of the favorites, or should you target one of the 2024 Kentucky Derby longshots like Endlessly (20-1) or Just Steel (25-1)? Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling. 

A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline’s win at the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November of that year. 

Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He’s also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.

Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.

Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictionsOne of Demling’s surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he’s the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez give Fierceness a pair of the most experienced connections in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. However, Fierceness has been inconsistent up to his point in his career, finishing seventh in the Champagne Stakes last October to go along with a third-place finish in the Holy Bull.

In addition, only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after winning the Florida Derby since 2010, none since Always Dreaming in 2017. Fierceness’ owner, Mike Repole, hasn’t had a horse finish higher than fifth in seven Kentucky Derby runs. Although Fierceness’ recent success may be enticing, Demling doesn’t see the value in including this favorite in 2024 Kentucky Derby bets. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he’s a 35-1 longshot. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. A bit of a late-bloomer who didn’t win any of his first three starts, Resilience finally broke through on New Year’s Day at Gulfstream Park. After a disappointing fourth place in his fifth career start at the Risen Star Stakes, he then solidified himself as a Kentucky Derby contender with an early April win at the Grade II Wood Memorial Stakes. That race has been very favorable to success at the Kentucky Derby as 11 horses have won both, making the Wood Memorial the second-best prep race at producing Derby winners.

Also in Resilience’s favor are his connections and his pedigree. He is trained by William Mott, who is the reigning award winner for Outstanding Trainer, and who won the 2019 Derby with Country House. Additionally, Resilience was sired by Into Mischief, who was a Grade I winner back in his day and also sired the Kentucky Derby winners in 2020 (Authentic) and 2021 (Mandaloun). So, three of the last four Derby winners have a connection to Resilience, and given his impressive final tune-up at the Wood Memorial, he’s a name to consider with 2024 Kentucky Derby bets. See which other horses to back at SportsLine. 

How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who “keeps getting better and better.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.

2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futuresHorseOddsProjectionFierceness3-1SEE PICKSSierra Leone7-2SEE PICKSCatching Freedom8-1SEE PICKSForever Young10-1SEE PICKSDornoch12-1SEE PICKSTrack Phantom15-1SEE PICKSHonor Marie16-1SEE PICKSMystik Dan16-1SEE PICKSDomestic Product18-1SEE PICKSEndlessly20-1SEE PICKSJust A Touch20-1SEE PICKSDeterministic20-1SEE PICKSJust Steel25-1SEE PICKSResilience 35-1SEE PICKSStronghold35-1SEE PICKSWest Saratoga80-1SEE PICKSNo More Time85-1SEE PICKSCatalytic100-1SEE PICKSHades100-1SEE PICKST O Password100-1SEE PICKSSociety Man101-1SEE PICKSGrand Mo the First125-1SEE PICKSEncino350-1SEE PICKSLiberal Arts350-1SEE PICKSCommon Defense500-1SEE PICKSEpic Ride 500-1SEE PICKSLucky Jeremy 500-1SEE PICKS