2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 680 of 11

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With barely a month remaining until Selection Sunday for the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament, it is looking increasingly certain that Purdue, Connecticut and Houston will be No. 1 seeds. Those three teams would need to really stumble down the stretch (Purdue in particular) in order to blow that projected spot on the top seed line.

Who joins them as the final No. 1 seed, though?

And what is the updated state of the bubble after a bunch of iffy teams picked up big wins this weekend?

You’ll see a lot of NET, RES and QUAL in the forthcoming analysis. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, the backbone of the Quads data and the primary sorting metric the selection committee uses to select and seed the field. RES is the average ranking of the two resume metrics (KPI and SOR) and is more or less a measure of who you beat, regardless of scoring margin. QUAL is the average ranking of the two predictive metrics (BPI and KenPom) and is rooted in scoring margin and adjusted efficiencies. All three play a key role in determining the projected field.

One major note regarding auto bids before we dive into this week’s bracket.

While both Dayton (A10) and Florida Atlantic (AAC) are in solid at-large position, neither one is currently atop its conference leaderboard following losses in the past few days. Instead, Richmond and South Florida are now projected for bids, shrinking the bubble by two spots. That is unfortunate news for Cincinnati, who was squeezed out of the projected field through no recent fault of its own. But it does provide a great reminder of how the picture can change during Championship Week.

With that out of the way, let’s start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

The Projected Bracket1 of 11

Connecticut’s Donovan ClinganZach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

EAST REGION (BOSTON)

Brooklyn, NY
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Green Bay
No. 8 TCU vs. No. 9 Northwestern

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Akron
No. 5 Oklahoma vs. No. 12 McNeese State

Memphis, TN
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Louisiana Tech
No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 Ole Miss/New Mexico

Charlotte, NC
No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 15 High Point
No. 7 Florida vs. No. 10 Butler

MIDWEST REGION (DETROIT)

Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Eastern Kentucky/Merrimack
No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Nevada

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 Yale

Omaha, NE
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Morehead State
No. 6 Utah State vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/Utah

Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington
No. 7 Kentucky vs. No. 10 Washington State

SOUTH REGION (DALLAS)

Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Southern
No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Michigan State

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 13 UNC-Wilmington
No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 Samford

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 Vermont
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Nebraska

Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Quinnipiac
No. 7 Texas Tech vs. No. 10 Grand Canyon

WEST REGION (LOS ANGELES)

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Norfolk State/South Dakota State
No. 8 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 9 Indiana State

Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 South Carolina vs. No. 13 Appalachian State
No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Richmond

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 14 South Florida
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Boise State

Omaha, NE
No. 2 Kansas vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Virginia

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds2 of 11

Arizona’s Pelle LarssonChris Gardner/Getty Images

1. Purdue Boilermakers (22-2, NET: 2, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 2.0)

2. Connecticut Huskies (22-2, NET: 4, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 4.0)

3. Houston Cougars (21-3, NET: 1, RES: 2.5, QUAL: 1.0)

4. Arizona Wildcats (19-5, NET: 3, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 3.5)

5. Kansas Jayhawks (18-5, NET: 12, RES: 5.5, QUAL: 14.0)

6. North Carolina Tar Heels (19-5, NET: 10, RES: 5.0, QUAL: 9.0)

If Tennessee had won at Texas A&M…

Or if Arizona had lost at Colorado…

Or if Baylor (previously our No. 9 overall seed) had won at Kansas (previously our No. 8 overall seed)…

This would have been a much tougher call.

As is, it’s kind of hard to argue any order other than this for the top six overall seeds.

Purdue remains the no-questions-asked No. 1 overall seed after its blowout of Indiana. The Boilermakers should cruise through the rest of February before early March games against Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin could make things interesting.

Connecticut also remains the clear No. 2 after a somewhat convincing win over Butler and an annihilation of Georgetown.

If those are the top two seeds, Houston is clearly No. 3 overall. The Cougars smoked Oklahoma State and eked out a quality road win over Cincinnati to remain in first place in the nation’s best conference.

There could be some debate about Houston landing ahead of Connecticut, but that is indisputably the top trio right now.

And with road wins over Colorado and Utah this week, Arizona is kind of indisputably No. 4 overall. The bad losses to Stanford and Oregon State are definitely still bad losses, but the Wildcats now have nine wins against the top 1.5 quadrants, including the true road win over Duke and neutral wins over Alabama and Michigan State.

That said, Arizona is still vulnerable to getting leapfrogged, even if it wins out, as there is not a Q1 game left on its regular-season schedule.

Beyond that, the home win over Baylor gets Kansas back into the conversation, but the Jayhawks were already behind Arizona in our estimation after last Monday’s loss at Kansas State. Though Baylor is better than Colorado or Utah, Arizona’s two road wins were more valuable than Kansas’ home win. Win at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma this week, however, and that aforementioned leapfrogging of Arizona will happen.

Lastly, North Carolina is still in the mix, though the recent home loss to Clemson did knock the Tar Heels down a peg. If they had to split with the Tigers, though, they did it the right way, trading road victories. Notably, UNC’s remaining road games against Virginia and Duke are better than anything left on Arizona’s calendar.

10 Words on Each of the 10 ‘Bubbliest’ Teams3 of 11

Providence’s Devin CarterMitchell Leff/Getty Images

Fifth-to-Last In: Nebraska Cornhuskers (17-8, NET: 53, RES: 37.5, QUAL: 51.0)—Sixth consecutive road loss leaves Cornhuskers in a precarious spot.

Fourth-to-Last In: New Mexico Lobos (18-5, NET: 22, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 32.0)—Swept by UNLV, needs at least one strong road win.

Third-to-Last In: Utah Utes (15-9, NET: 47, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 45.5)—Home loss to Arizona State poked serious holes in resume.

Second-to-Last In: Ole Miss Rebels (18-5, NET: 58, RES: 18.0, QUAL: 67.5)—Mississippi has result-based metrics that remain too remarkable to ignore.

Last Team In: Mississippi State Bulldogs (16-8, NET: 35, RES: 38.5, QUAL: 34.0)—Blew out Georgia and Missouri to remain in the hunt.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Cincinnati Bearcats (15-8, NET: 34, RES: 49.5, QUAL: 31.5)—May live to regret squandering the 25-6 run against Houston.

Second Team Out: Seton Hall Pirates (15-9, NET: 67, RES: 55.0, QUAL: 66.0)—Metrics stink, and getting smoked at Villanova pushed them out.

Third Team Out: Providence Friars (15-9, NET: 57, RES: 57.0, QUAL: 48.0)—Four Q1 wins, but just 6-9 vs. top three Quadrants.

Fourth Team Out: Gonzaga Bulldogs (17-6, NET: 24, RES: 56.5, QUAL: 19.0)—Win at Kentucky was massive, but more work to do.

Fifth Team Out: St. John’s Red Storm (14-10, NET: 45, RES: 59.5, QUAL: 39.5)—Johnnies’ mounting list of missed opportunities has grown too large.

ACC Summary4 of 11

Clemson’s PJ HallNicholas Faulkner/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. North Carolina, 10. Duke, 20. Clemson, 39. Virginia

Also Considered: Wake Forest, Miami

Biggest Change: Clemson finally gets back on track

Eyeing up the schedule seven days ago, it looked like this week might be the death of Clemson.

After opening the season 11-1 with one heck of a fine collection of nonconference wins over Alabama (road), TCU (neutral), South Carolina (home) and Boise State (home), the Tigers self-destructed for an entire month, suffering six losses in the span of nine games.

Because those are ACC games we’re talking about, that stretch featured three fairly meaningless wins over Louisville, Boston College and Florida State, as well as four less-than-great losses to Georgia Tech, Miami, Virginia Tech and Virginia.

And with road games against North Carolina and Syracuse on tap for this week, it was plausible—if not likely—that Clemson was going to fall to 14-9 overall and 4-8 in the ACC. While conference record isn’t supposed to matter, getting past a four-games-below-.500 record in this conference would’ve been very difficult.

Instead, the Tigers did the unthinkable, knocking the Tar Heels from their perch as a projected No. 1 seed before picking up a solid win at Syracuse—despite committing 21 turnovers in the latter.

Both games could have gone either way. They were tied at 70 with a little over three minutes remaining in Chapel Hill, as well as tied at 60 at the exact same juncture in Syracuse. But it was just a little too much PJ Hall, Ian Schieffelin and Joe Girard coming through in the clutch.

The bad news is that the upcoming slate is full of more games that would be meaningless individual wins. Before ending the season at Wake Forest, Clemson will play home games against Miami, NC State, Florida State, Pitt and Syracuse, and road games against Georgia Tech and Notre Dame—otherwise read as seven consecutive games hugging the border between Q2 and Q3. Anything worse than a 6-1 record in those games would be a step in the wrong direction.

But at least the distance they would need to step backward to reach the bubble is much greater than it was a week ago. Clemson vaulted from a No. 8 seed back up to a No. 5 seed.

Big 12 Summary5 of 11

Iowa State’s Tamin LipseyDavid Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Houston, 5. Kansas, 9. Iowa State, 11. Baylor, 19. BYU, 21. Oklahoma, 25. Texas Tech, 31. TCU, 32. Texas

Also Considered: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UCF

Biggest Change: Iowa State’s mounting case for a No. 1 seed

I want to start this section by saying how much I would hate Iowa State getting a No. 1 seed.

It’s not because I dislike the Cyclones in any way. They have proven themselves over the past five weeks to be an extremely talented team, both elite on defense and light years ahead of where they had been on offense in T.J. Otzelberger’s first two seasons in Ames. Milan Momcilovic is a viable candidate for National Freshman of the Year, and the dual-combo guard, two-way backcourt of Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert is second to none.

I’d get a lot of enjoyment out of watching this team make a run to a Final Four.

But Iowa State getting a No. 1 seed after doing absolutely nothing in November and December would be a travesty for the future of nonconference, early season hoops.

Yes, everyone plays buy games, but Iowa State played eight of them. The only one against a team currently ranked top 200 on KenPom was the opener against Green Bay, and that’s a team that went 3-29 and finished 361st on KenPom last season. For that home win to be the Cyclones’ third-best of nonconference play says all you need to know about their nonconference intentions.

Yet, here they sit with four Q1A wins and five total victories against the projected field following wins this week over Texas and TCU.

They’re not quite on the brink of the No. 1 seed conversation yet. Iowa State is still just our top No. 3 seed and a far cry from Arizona at No. 4 overall on the seed list.

But if the Cyclones win at Cincinnati and at home against Texas Tech in the next seven days? To, at worst, move into a tie for first place atop the Big 12 with Houston, who they’ve already beaten?

Then it becomes a conversation that I’m already not looking forward to having.

Big East Summary6 of 11

St. John’s Daniss JenkinsPatrick McDermott/Getty Images

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Connecticut, 8. Marquette, 13. Creighton, 38. Butler

Also Considered: St. John’s, Seton Hall, Providence, Xavier, Villanova

Biggest Change: St. John’s blows another Golden (Eagles) opportunity

Rick Pitino’s Red Storm entered the week as just about the bubbliest team in the nation. Losers in five of their previous six games, they were our second-to-last team in the field, and even that felt a little generous after an 11-point loss to Xavier.

But after annihilating DePaul Tuesday night, St. John’s stormed out to a 15-point first-half lead Saturday on the road against Marquette, setting their sights on what would have been their best win of the season by an absolute landslide. (As is, that best win was either the road victory over Villanova or the neutral-site win over Utah, neither of which is that much of a feather in the cap.)

But then, Tyler Kolek happened.

To that point in the game, Marquette’s star point guard had been limited to two points, four assists and two rebounds. But two more dimes and a just-before-halftime triple helped him carry some momentum into the second half, where he went off for 22 points, seven assists and five rebounds just in those final 20 minutes as Marquette ended up cruising late to an 11-point victory.

All told, after St. John’s took its 45-30 lead, Kolek had 25 points and nine assists while the Red Storm scored a total of 30 points.

After letting that one slip through their grasp, they have to play their way back into the field.

Of their seven remaining games, they still have two against Georgetown and one at DePaul. They also have a home game against Seton Hall which they should win, though we shall see. There’s also a home game against Creighton and road games against Butler and Providence. Going 5-2 would likely be enough, but it won’t be easy in the slightest.

Big Ten Summary7 of 11

Wisconsin’s Chucky HepburnRich Schultz/Getty Images

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 16. Illinois, 17. Wisconsin, 33. Michigan State, 34. Northwestern, 42. Nebraska

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Wisconsin’s Woes Continue

Not even two weeks ago, Wisconsin was on the fringe of the conversation for a No. 1 seed. Fresh off a convincing 15-point win over Michigan State, the Badgers were the No. 6 overall seed in our Jan. 30 projection of the field.

Four losses later, the No. 6 seed line has become a much more realistic expectation here.

Starting out that skid with an overtime loss at Nebraska and a home loss to Purdue was really just a pair of missed opportunities. Wisconsin slipped slightly from a solid No. 2 seed to our top No. 3 seed for that pair of close calls.

But losing to the walking disaster that is Michigan basketball before then getting pummeled by 22 at Rutgers was much more of a resume-changing week.

They were both Quad 2 games, and Wisconsin does have a stockpile of six Quad 1 wins, so this isn’t exactly a “Memphis losing home games to South Florida and Rice” level of disaster that can tank a resume in an instant.

Still, the Badgers now have eight total losses, three of which were against teams nowhere close to the at-large conversation. And while the season sweep of Michigan State looks stellar on paper, the only victory over a sure-fire tournament team was the 11-point home win over Marquette.

Wisconsin could still play its way back up to a protected (top four) seed, but it needs to rally soon. Its next three are against Ohio State, Iowa and Maryland, each of whom pretty much needs to beat the Badgers to maintain what little hope it has left for an at-large bid.

Mountain West Summary8 of 11

New Mexico’s Jaelen House and Richard PitinoSam Wasson/Getty Images

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 22. Utah State, 23. San Diego State, 24. Colorado State, 36. Nevada, 41. Boise State, 43. New Mexico

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Oh no, Lobos

Heading into the week, it was assumed that if either game was going to pose a problem for New Mexico, it would be the road game against Wyoming. Not only have the Lobos been nothing special away from home this season—their best win was a neutral-site game against Santa Clara—but the Cowboys have been a serious menace in Laramie, already knocking off both Nevada and Colorado State at home.

However, UNM won by 18 at Wyoming before heading back to the Pit and taking a bad home loss to UNLV.

Losing on the road against the Rebels is ill-advised, but not terrible. It’s a Q2 loss that New Mexico already had on its resume.

But a home loss to UNLV?

That one stings, firmly planted in Q3.

Picking up that type of loss when you’ve done nothing of note away from home can be a problem, especially if New Mexico continues to do nothing of note away from home.

For now, the Lobos remain OK. They had excellent metrics before the UNLV game and that one-point loss didn’t instantly destroy everything they had built through the first three months.

However, they still have road games left against Nevada, San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State, as well as a home game against Colorado State. This is very much no longer simply a “win the games you’re supposed to and you’ll be fine” situation for the Lobos. They’re going to need to win at least one of those four road games while also making sure not to drop any more at home.

Otherwise, they’re going to plummet from 18-3 to the wrong side of the bubble—for a second consecutive year.

Meanwhile, hello, Nevada. The Wolf Pack were on the outside looking in one week ago, but they are sitting much prettier after a road win over Utah State and a home win over San Diego State. They now have five Q1 wins and can no longer be denied a spot in the field.

Pac-12 Summary9 of 11

Utah’s Branden CarlsonChris Gardner/Getty Images

3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Arizona, 37. Washington State, 44. Utah

Also Considered: Colorado, Oregon

Biggest Change: Utah free falls onto the bubble

On Thursday, Utah fell shy of what would have been just about a ticket-punching win over Arizona. The Utes still would’ve needed to avoid complete disaster down the stretch, but knocking off a borderline No. 1 seed would have been absolutely massive for their resume.

Unfortunately, they were unable to get that W, blowing chances at the end of both the first and second overtimes before losing in the third extra period.

And much more unfortunately, Utah turned around and lost a home game to Arizona State 48 hours later.

Since starting the season 11-2 and entering the New Year looking like a possible No. 4 seed, Utah has tanked, losing seven of its past 11 games.

At least prior to this week, the Utes were undefeated at home and suffering largely forgivable losses on the road. But polishing off a season sweep at the hands of Arizona State was the complete antithesis of what the doctor ordered.

The one saving grace is that the November road win over Saint Mary’s has aged like a fine wine, thanks to the Gaels winning 17 of their past 18 games. Even with that Q1A win on the resume, though, Utah now has five losses to teams not projected to dance and not very much in the wins department to make up for it.

Aside from the road game against Colorado on Feb. 24 and arguably the road game against Oregon on March 9, there’s not much opportunity to improve the resume from here.

The Utes are still in our projected field, but they’re going to need to turn a corner and fast in order to maintain that. A loss at USC or UCLA in the next seven days could be the final straw.

SEC Summary10 of 11

Texas A&M’s Wade Taylor IVEd Zurga/Getty Images

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 7. Tennessee, 12. Alabama, 14. South Carolina, 15. Auburn, 26. Florida, 27. Texas A&M, 28. Kentucky, 45. Ole Miss, 46. Mississippi State

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Both Florida and Texas A&M pick up massive wins

Heading into the weekend, I had both Texas A&M and Florida right on the No. 9/10 seed cut line—kind of bubble-y, but not ominously on the brink of getting booted from the projected field.

For Florida, it was a clean resume (perfect 14-0 outside of Q1) purely lacking in quality wins, save for the OT road victory over Kentucky. With Texas A&M, it was a bit more complicated with several not-great losses, but with good metrics and a nice stockpile of solid wins—also buoyed by an OT victory over Kentucky, albeit at home.

In both cases, though, there was a gigantic opportunity on deck, with Florida hosting Auburn and Texas A&M hosting Tennessee.

And both home teams were up to the challenge and then some.

Florida blitzed Auburn, racing out to an early 26-9 lead and beating the Tigers at their own game with 10 steals and six blocks. The Gators won by 16, but led by as many as 29 points in second half. It was ugly and could have been worse.

Texas A&M took a little longer than that to blow its game open, but by about the third media timeout, it seemed clear the Aggies were going to pick up a marquee win over a Tennessee team that entered the night in the mix for a No. 1 seed. Both Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford were sensational in pacing Texas A&M to a 16-point Q1A win of its own.

Neither team’s bid is fully secured just yet. Florida, in particular, has quite a few possible landmines left on its schedule with five games left against the bottom five teams in the SEC. But both the Aggies and the Gators are now in much better shape, projected for No. 7 seeds, and could both get in just by avoiding disaster down the stretch.

Likely One-Bid Leagues Summary11 of 11

Gonzaga’s Ryan NembhardAndy Lyons/Getty Images

27 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 18. Dayton, 29. Florida Atlantic, 30. Saint Mary’s, 35. Indiana State, 40. Grand Canyon, 47. Richmond, 48. Samford, 49. McNeese State, 50. Yale, 51. Appalachian State, 52. UNC-Wilmington, 53. Akron, 54. UC Irvine, 55. Louisiana Tech, 56. South Florida, 57. Vermont, 58. Morehead State, 59. High Point, 60. Eastern Washington, 61. Quinnipiac, 62. Colgate, 63. Green Bay, 64. Southern, 65. Norfolk State, 66. South Dakota State, 67. Eastern Kentucky, 68. Merrimack

Also Considered: Gonzaga, Memphis, Drake, James Madison

Biggest Changes: Dayton and Florida Atlantic both suffer losses, and Gonzaga enters the chat

Both Dayton and Florida Atlantic remain solidly in the projected field as the highest-seeded teams among this 25-league tier.

But their resumes took considerable hits in disappointing losses.

FAU’s loss came in overtime at UAB on a night where Yaxel Lendeborg got some long overdue national attention. In the 14 games leading up to this one, UAB’s JUCO transfer was averaging 14.9 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 2.1 blocks, including going for 23, 16, four and two, respectively, in the win over Memphis. The Owls shut him down in the first game in mid-January, but he racked up 17 points and 21 rebounds Thursday night, playing all 45 minutes of the win.

(UAB is not a viable at-large candidate, but remember the name Yaxel Lendeborg if the Blazers happen to steal the AAC’s auto bid.)

Dayton’s loss came at VCU in a 49-47 game that was anything but easy to watch. Neither team could buy a bucket or an offensive rebound. VCU scored just seven points in the final 13 minutes and 30 seconds, but the Rams somehow did enough to pull off the upset.

The Flyers were looking good for a possible No. 3 seed, but it’s hard to imagine anything better than a No. 5 seed at this point. Even if they win out, they’re likely going to get bypassed by a handful of power-conference teams with better opportunities down the stretch.

But the real story here is Gonzaga finally picking up a Q1 win, knocking off Kentucky at Rupp Arena.

There’s still plenty of work to be done, as the Zags entered that game at 0-5 against the top 1.5 quadrants, plus had a low-Q2 road loss to Santa Clara. It was a big win, but it doesn’t make up for all of that. However, should they win their remaining six games—which would include road victories over Saint Mary’s and San Francisco—a resume that already features a great NET and great predictive metrics would be almost impossible to deny a spot in the field.