2024 NFL Free Agency: Final Predictions Before the Legal Tampering Period Begins

Maurice Moton@@MoeMotonContributor IMarch 9, 20242024 NFL Free Agency: Final Predictions Before the Legal Tampering Period Begins0 of 10

QB Russell WilsonPerry Knotts/Getty Images

NFL free-agency frenzy will commence in a couple of days, starting with the legal tampering period, marking new beginnings for teams looking to fill roster needs and players on the open market.

Clubs can agree to terms with players on contracts on Monday and Tuesday, and by Wednesday, March 13, the first day of the new league year, those deals can become official, though we’ve seen agreements fall apart in the recent past.

For the most part, within the next week, we’ll find out where several prominent free agents will suit up in 2024.

The 2024 free-agent class has stacked position groups at running back, interior defensive line and edge-rusher, with guys like Saquon Barkley, Chris Jones, and Danielle Hunter available. Also, don’t forget about the trade market, which may heat up in a few days.

Before the start of the legal tampering period, we’ll present our final predictions for signings, extensions and potential trades.

Bears Trade QB Justin Fields to Falcons1 of 10

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Justin Fields has likely heard his name tossed around in trade scenarios for months with the Chicago Bears atop the 2024 draft order.

During the NFL Scouting Combine, general manager Ryan Poles suggested that the team would trade Fields before the start of free agency if it decided to draft a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick.

Per The Athletic’s Adam Jahns, “all signs are there” that Chicago will take a quarterback with the first pick.

If that’s the case, the Atlanta Falcons make the most sense for Fields as a trade suitor.

Yes, Fields grew up in Georgia and spent one collegiate year with the Bulldogs before he transferred to Ohio State. More importantly for his career, he would likely start over Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke, who both struggled to hold on to the starting job last year.

Secondly, Fields would have a pair of big-target pass-catchers in wideout Drake London (6’4″ 213 lbs) and tight end Kyle Pitts (6’6″ 246 lbs).

From the Falcons’ perspective, they would acquire a dual-threat signal-caller (6,674 yards passing with 40 touchdowns and 2,220 yards rushing with 14 touchdowns in three seasons) who could open up the run game for Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

In 2023, the Falcons finished 7-10 and may have snuck into the playoffs with average quarterback performances. Fields should be an immediate upgrade at the position.

Moreover, according to NFL executives via The Athletic’s Jeff Howe, Fields may cost a second- or third-round pick, which means Atlanta can use its eighth overall pick to address another high-priority position of need.

Bears Sign RB Derrick Henry2 of 10

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With $62.7 million in cap space, the Chicago Bears can make multiple splashes in free agency. After the Bears trade Fieids, they can continue to redesign the offense by signing Derrick Henry.

The Bears have running backs Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson and Travis Homer under contract, but Henry fits the team’s hard-nose culture and would bring a high level of physicality to the club’s offensive identity.

As a defensive coordinator, Bears head coach Matt Eberflus witnessed running back Jonathan Taylor help provide the Indianapolis Colts with an offensive identity. Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was on Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay’s staff when Todd Gurley put together peak performances to take pressure off 2016 No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff.

Eberflus and Waldron may believe that Henry, who won the 2019 and 2020 rushing titles, has enough in the tank to force opposing teams to stack the box, which would open up passing lanes for their quarterback.

Broncos Trade WR Jerry Jeudy to Panthers3 of 10

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The Denver Broncos have put the writing on the wall that spells out Jerry Jeudy’s imminent departure.

Denver has reworked wideout Tim Patrick’s contract, hoping he can get back on the field after missing the last two seasons because of a torn ACL and a torn Achilles. Head coach Sean Payton told reporters that Marvin Mims’ role will “expand.”

In 2023, wide receiver Courtland Sutton led the Broncos in catches (59), receiving yards (772) and touchdowns (10). Jeudy posted similar numbers in receptions (54) and yards (758), but he only scored two touchdowns.

As a former first-round pick, Jeudy has had an underwhelming four-year stretch in Denver, averaging 53.6 receiving yards per game in 57 outings.

Denver will likely shop Jeudy to clear about $13 million in cap space, which would allow the club to feature Mims a lot more in the passing game and carve out a role for Patrick with Sutton as the go-to receiver.

The Broncos may find a trade partner in the Carolina Panthers, who must add receivers to help quarterback Bryce Young.

In Young’s rookie campaign, 33-year-old Adam Thielen led Carolina across most receiving categories with 103 receptions for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns.

The Panthers should take a gamble on Jeudy’s upside as a lead receiver while he’s in the final year of his rookie contract. Because of Jeudy’s underwhelming numbers over the past four years, Carolina may be able to acquire him with a fourth-round pick.

If Jeudy flops, the Panthers can allow him to test free agency in 2025, though he may be motivated to put up big numbers before he tests the open market next offseason.

Cardinals Sign Edge Danielle Hunter4 of 10

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As one of the top free agents set to test the open market, Danielle Hunter will likely have plenty of suitors. He’s coming off arguably his best season with career highs in tackles for loss (23) and sacks (16.5) with the seventh-most pressures (41) across the league in 2023.

Going into his age-30 term, Hunter may want to strike big in free agency since this may be his last chance to earn a big-money deal after a standout campaign.

The Arizona Cardinals could offer Hunter a massive multiyear deal. As of Saturday, they have $56.6 million in cap space.

The Cardinals have a major void to fill in their pass rush. They finished the previous campaign with the second-lowest pressure rate (17.1 percent), and none of their defenders logged more than six sacks.

As the Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator in 2022, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon called plays for a defense that featured a historic pass rush. He may look to put together another dominant pass-rushing stable in Arizona. Hunter could spearhead that group.

Chiefs Re-Sign DT Chris Jones5 of 10

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The Kansas City Chiefs will look to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowl titles.

To accomplish that phenomenal feat, Kansas City should do whatever it takes to retain its best players. The Chiefs have already franchise-tagged cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, though they’ve also granted him permission to seek a trade, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport.

Spotrac estimates that Jones could command $28.4 million annually on his new deal.

Despite that steep number, the Chiefs can manipulate their cap space to re-sign Jones, and they should because he’s arguably the best defensive tackle in the league not named Aaron Donald.

The Chiefs have $1.3 million in cap space, but they can clear $35.6 million by restructuring quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ contract. The front office can also restructure right tackle Jawaan Taylor’s deal to save an additional $12.6 million for more cap flexibility.

So, if the Chiefs really want Jones back, they can get it done with some cap-clearing moves.

Jones may want to be courted in free agency, but don’t be surprised if he posts on social media about unfinished business in Kansas City as the Chiefs try to accomplish something no other NFL team has done in the league’s history.

Giants Sign QB Russell Wilson6 of 10

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Earlier in the week, the Denver Broncos informed Russell Wilson of his forthcoming release. With this move, Denver will take on an NFL-record $85 million in dead cap.

Because of Wilson’s contract situation with Denver, he probably won’t command a lucrative deal on the open market, which makes him an appealing player at a position that’s in high demand.

On Thursday, Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported that the Pittsburgh Steelers and Wilson have mutual interest.

That said, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Wilson had an “exploratory meeting” with the New York Giants en route to Pittsburgh.

While at the combine, NFL Network’s Rich Eisen heard that the Giants “are absolutely done with Daniel Jones” (5:00 mark).

Though the Giants signed Jones to a four-year, $160 million deal last offseason, they may be willing to look for an upgrade following his injury-riddled subpar season with just 909 passing yards, two touchdowns and six interceptions in six contests.

Third-year head coach Brian Daboll may be feeling immense pressure to get the Giants back in the playoffs after his team regressed this past season.

If Wilson comes at a discounted price, the Giants can easily afford to sign him with $38.3 million in cap space. In this scenario, Big Blue would have an expensive backup quarterback, though Daboll may be operating in survival mode to keep his job.

Panthers Trade Edge Brian Burns to Rams7 of 10

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If the Carolina Panthers trade Brian Burns, the new regime may settle for less than what the previous administration turned down in a reported deal from the Los Angeles Rams (h/t ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler) that involved two first-rounders.

According to CBS Sports’ Josina Anderson, teams interested in Burns would likely give up less in trade compensation because he’s in the final year of his contract and looking for an extension. Anderson believes Burns will be available for a third-round pick.

As a two-time Pro Bowler with 46 sacks and 142 pressures in 80 games (67 starts), Burns can command a massive pay raise, perhaps north of $25 million annually, which is $500,000 more than edge-rusher Montez Sweat, who signed a four-year, $98 million extension with the Chicago Bears back in November.

If the Panthers are willing to take a third-rounder for Burns, whom the team franchise-tagged, rather than sign him to an extension, they should get plenty of offers.

Yet the Rams may resurface as the most aggressive team in trade talks.

General manager Les Snead has a history of making big moves for star defensive players. Under his watch, the Rams acquired Marcus Peters, Jalen Ramsey, and Von Miller in blockbuster trades.

If the Rams previously offered multiple first-rounders for Burns, they probably wouldn’t flinch while sending over a second-round pick to outbid the competition for the star pass-rusher.

After five losing seasons in Carolina, Burns would likely look forward to a fresh start with the Rams, who made the playoffs last season.

Raiders Re-Sign Josh Jacobs8 of 10

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Among the top running backs, Josh Jacobs may be the only ball-carrier who re-signs with his current team.

When Antonio Pierce took over for Josh McDaniels in an interim head-coaching role midway through the 2023 term, he benched quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo for Aidan O’Connell, and the Raiders played a more physical offensive style with Jacobs leading a resurgent charge on that side of the ball.

Last season, Jacobs didn’t eclipse 77 rushing yards in a game until Week 9, Pierce’s first game as the lead skipper.

Though Jacobs missed the Raiders’ last four games, Pierce may push to retain him.

Jacobs and Zamir White would be a strong running back combination that can take a lot of pressure off of O’Connell or a rookie quarterback in the passing game.

Moreover, Jacobs established himself as a captain alongside wide receiver Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby in the locker room and what he brings in leadership has great value for a team that may start a young quarterback in 2024.

Because of Jacobs’ inability to finish the 2023 season healthy coupled with a talented crop of free-agent running backs, the Raiders may not have to pay a premium to re-sign him. If so, the 2022 rushing champion may be back in Las Vegas.

Texans Sign RB Saquon Barkley9 of 10

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The New York Giants made a mistake when they signed quarterback Daniel Jones to a four-year, $160 million extension and franchise-tagged Saquon Barkley last offseason. The latter has undoubtedly been the more valuable player in the offense.

Even in a star-studded free-agent running back class, Barkley should garner interest from a good number of suitors. Though he’s dealt with injuries that cost him several games in his six-year career (14 in 2020), he’s racked up 1,242-plus scrimmage yards and scored 10 touchdowns in 2022 and 2023.

The Giants may not be willing to sign Barkley at a premium salary rate on a long-term deal, but a team like the Houston Texans, who have a quarterback on a rookie contract and $62.9 million in cap space, may be willing to take a swing at one of the league’s few workhorse running backs.

In 2023, the Texans emerged as a surprise playoff contender and won the AFC South division. Quarterback C.J. Stroud immediately elevated their passing attack, and they finished seventh in passing yards per game.

Houston needs more balance on offense though. The club finished 22nd in rushing, and running back Devin Singletary will be a free agent. The Texans would have a significant upgrade if they replaced him with Barkley.

Vikings Re-Sign QB Kirk Cousins10 of 10

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NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero expects Kirk Cousins to test free agency to gauge his market. Most of the quarterback-needy teams, aside from maybe one or two clubs atop the draft order, should make a strong pitch to him.

Though ultimately, Cousins’ return to the Minnesota Vikings makes the most sense.

Cousins will turn 36 in August and is coming off a torn Achilles. If he signs elsewhere to pick up an unfamiliar system with new teammates, he may have a rough transition year.

In six seasons with the Vikings, Cousins has put together three Pro Bowl campaigns and may have earned a fourth nod if not for the Achilles injury. In two terms (25 games) under head coach Kevin O’Connell, Cousins has thrown for 47 touchdowns and 19 interceptions with a completion rate of 65.9 percent or better in both seasons.

By the way, Minnesota has one of the league’s best receiver duos in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and a two-time Pro Bowl tight end in T.J. Hockenson.

With O’Connell calling the plays, Cousins shouldn’t be in any rush to leave an ascending offense that ranked within the top 10 in total yards in 2022 and 2023.

The Vikings know how hard it could be to replace Cousins though, too. In Cousins’ absence this past season, they cycled through three starting quarterbacks (Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall) and struggled to find efficiency or a rhythm in the passing game.

Unless Minnesota finds a veteran upgrade for Cousins, the front office should re-sign him and draft a signal-caller to develop for the future.

According to the MMQB’s Albert Breer, the Vikings’ coaching staff wants to “keep” Cousins, though the front office doesn’t want to sign him to a fully guaranteed contract (like his previous deal).

As a 35-year-old quarterback with limited mobility coming off an Achilles injury, Cousins may not be able to get a fully guaranteed deal from any team. If not, he should return to Minnesota and happily accept the Vikings’ offer.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.