2024 NFL Free Agency: Top Values at Every Position for Teams to Target This Offseason
Gary Davenport@@IDPSharksFeatured Columnist IVMarch 6, 20242024 NFL Free Agency: Top Values at Every Position for Teams to Target This Offseason0 of 11
Tyler BoydRyan Kang/Getty Images
The deadline for teams to franchise or transition tag players has come and gone. In less than a week, the “legal tampering” period will begin. And on March 13, the floodgates will officially open and free agency will begin.
When it does, some players are going to hit the jackpot. Quarterback Kirk Cousins will get paid—again. With so many wideouts tagged, the demand for Calvin Ridley’s services should be robust. Defensive stars like edge-rusher Danielle Hunter, linebacker Patrick Queen and defensive lineman Leonard Williams are all going to land big bucks.
Those massive deals may drive the free agency news cycle, and fans love it when their team makes a “splash” signing. But more often than not, those megadeals aren’t the contracts that truly “win” free agency. At best you’re getting what you paid for.
No, the signings that can really make a difference for NFL
teams are the values. Players who are signed to relatively modest deals who go
on to wildly outperform those contracts. The deals where production roars past
price.
With that in mind, here’s a look at one player at each position with the potential to be one of the bigger bargains of free agency in 2024.
QB: Russell Wilson1 of 11
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Life comes at you fast in the NFL—just ask Russell Wilson
and the Denver Broncos. Just two years ago, the veteran quarterback was the
toast of the Mile High City—the signal-caller who was going to lead Denver back
to prominence.
Fast forward to 2024, and after clashing with Broncos head
coach Sean Payton last year, the team is eating a record $85 million cap hit
just to be rid of Wilson, while Wilson is trying very hard to not look like a
guy who was just publicly dumped.
“Tough times don’t last, but tough people do,” Wilson wrote in his farewell message on social media. “God’s got me. I am excited for what’s next.”
The thing is, the 35-year-old wasn’t terrible last year—his 3,070 passing yards were a career-low, but Wilson completed over 66 percent of his passes, threw 26 touchdowns against just eight interceptions and posted a passer rating of 98. Wilson was 22nd in QBR, but ranked ahead of the likes of Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears and Kyler Murray of the Arizona Cardinals.
Is Wilson still the quarterback that appeared in two Super Bowls, won one and made nine Pro Bowls? Probably not. But he’s a capable and experienced veteran quarterback. And with the Broncos paying Wilson a whopping $39 million to go away this year, a team could conceivably sign Wilson for the veteran minimum (or close to it).
For teams with a need under center and not much cap space,
that kind of value can make all the difference in the world.
RB: A.J. Dillon2 of 11
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There are no shortage of big names at the running back position set to hit the open market. Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans, Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants, Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers and Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys are all pending free agents. Given the devaluation of the position in recent years, at least one of those backs isn’t going to be happy with his salary next season.
But there’s another young back who could be available for a song who has the potential to be a major bargain—despite a disappointing 2023 season.
There’s no getting around it—A.J. Dillon did not have a good year with the Green Bay Packers in 2023. Dillon’s 613 rushing yards were his fewest since his rookie season. His 3.4 yards per carry was a career-low. He scored just two touchdowns, and according to NFL analyst Warren Sharp, Dillon’s touchdown rate of 11.1 percent marked “the worst mark for any running back with over 15 touches inside the 10-yard line in the last four years.”
Yikes.
However, Dillon is also a 25-year-old former second-round pick who averaged over four yards a carry in each of his first three seasons. He’s a better receiver out of the backfield than he’s given credit for. And perhaps most importantly, after last year’s fiasco his asking price isn’t going to be high at all.
Dillon has never been a lead back—at least not consistently. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be—on the cheap.
WR: Tyler Boyd3 of 11
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Few players are more accustomed to playing in the shadow of
greatness than wide receiver Tyler Boyd.
There was a time when the 29-year-old was the No. 1 wide receiver for the Cincinnati Bengals. In both 2018 and 2019, Boyd eclipsed 75 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards. But then the Bengals added Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and Boyd went from top dog to third banana. Boyd’s 667 receiving yards last year were his fewest since 2017, and his 10.0 yards per catch was a career-low.
Now, with Higgins currently under the franchise tag and Chase set to receive a massive extension, the Bengals likely can’t afford to bring Boyd back. But quarterback Jake Browning told reporters that whoever lands Boyd in free agency will be getting an excellent pass-catcher.
“In the receiver room, obviously we’ve got a ton of
talent there,” said Browning. “But (Boyd is) a big, unsung hero of
the locker room. I hope he’s back. But wherever he goes, someone’s going to be
lucky to have him.”
It’s not like Boyd’s level of play fell off appreciably—he just happened to play on a team that added a pair of star receivers in raid succession. And even then, not once did Boyd grouse publicly about his decreased target share. He just went about doing his job.
There aren’t many wideouts the right side of 30 who become available in free agency who possess 1,000-yard upside and will likely sign for less than $10 million a season.
TE: Mike Gesicki4 of 11
Cooper Neill/Getty Images
To be clear, this year’s crop of free-agent tight ends isn’t all that impressive—especially after Dalton Schultz re-upped with the Houston Texans. NFL teams with a need at the position will have to either look to the draft or try to talk themselves into a low-ceiling veteran like Hunter Henry or Gerald Everett.
It’s either that or the bargain bin. And teams looking to add a tight end on the cheap might want to take a look at Mike Gesicki.
Gesicki’s lone year with the New England Patriots was disappointing—just 29 catches for 244 yards and two scores. Gesicki admitted to reporters that he didn’t meet his own expectations in 2023.
“I had a lot of high expectations for myself coming in here, and I’m just disappointed that I couldn’t, or didn’t, leave more of a mark on the field,” Gesicki said. “Whether it was some of the circumstances, whether it was opportunity, whether it was — we got a lot of playmakers in this building [and] there’s only one football. But I did have high expectations for myself. I hold myself to a high standard, and I would have loved to make more plays and be the guy that I know I am, and a lot of these coaches, which is why they brought me here.”
However, Gesicki has shown that he can both stretch the
field and be a real contributor on offense—he caught 73 passes for 780 yards
with the Miami Dolphins in 2021.
And after last year’s vanishing act, the 28-year-old can probably be had on a one-year “prove it” deal.
OT: Jermaine Eluemunor5 of 11
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To be clear, “value” can be a relative term where offensive tackles are concerned in free agency. It’s a highly coveted position where even average talents can get big money.
Jermaine Eluemunor could be in for a fat raise after playing
on a one-year, $3 million pact with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2023, but based on
a January
tweet from the 29-year-old, he may be as interested in winning as he is in getting
a big contract.
“You can call me a hater I don’t care,” he said. “I don’t like the Chiefs at all. We beat them this year yeah cool, but I want to beat them when it matters. Don’t care who comments on this–players, fans I don’t care. Congrats to them for making another Super Bowl but I hope I get the opportunity to beat you when it matters.”
Tell us how you really feel Jermaine.
If Eluemunor is serious about potentially sacrificing a little money to play for a contender, there should be a few teams who fit the bill who would be interested in the eighth-year veteran. He’s hardly a household name, but Eluemunor has quietly become a quality right tackle, allowing six sacks in just over 900 snaps a year ago.
He might not be a star, but Eluemunor would be an upgrade for a number of teams—one that likely won’t come with a knee-buckling price tag.
IOL: Jon Runyan6 of 11
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It doesn’t appear that guard Jon Runyan is interested in affording NFL teams any discounts this offseason—while there has reportedly been mutual interest between both player and team in a return to Green Bay, Runyan recently hired Drew Rosenhaus as his agent.
While appearing on Radio
Row at the Super Bowl, Runyan also sounded like a man who was ready to let
the open market set his value.
“It’s been fun. It’s been exciting. I really have no
idea what to expect. I’m kind of taking that in stride and letting things
happen,” said Runyan. “I think I’ve put out a good resume for myself
over the past four years. I’m going to let that speak for itself.”
Still, in a deep class of interior linemen in free agency, it’s entirely possible that Runyan’s market could be softer than expected. If that’s the case, the Packers should hardly be the only team looking to add the 26-year-old at a reasonable cost.
Runyan isn’t an elite talent. But he’s a solid interior lineman with experience at both guard spots who has never missed a game and who has started 50 games for the Packers over the past three seasons.
Last season, Runyan allowed just two sacks over 928 snaps. He’s talented. He’s versatile. He’s durable. And he’s likely not going to cost $8 million or more per season.
EDGE: Dorance Armstrong7 of 11
Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
When folks talk about the Dallas Cowboys pass rush, the
conversation usually turns to edge-rushers Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence.
But Dorance Armstrong has played an important part as well, piling up 16 sacks
over the past two seasons.
Now, the 26-year-old is about to hit free agency after out-playing his two-year, $12 million contract. And with the Cowboys annually up against the cap, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler believes that Armstrong’s days in Big D are numbered—and that an NFC East rival could be a leading candidate to sign him.
“(Armstrong) has plenty of interest,” he said. “He most likely won’t be back with the Cowboys; new Commanders coach Dan Quinn could try to snag him in Washington.”
Washington’s cap space (over $91 million per Over the Cap—most in the NFL) would come in handy in pursuit of Armstrong. He might be a value, but he isn’t going to be cheap—a contract averaging north of $10 million a season is a real possibility.
But with Brian Burns of the Carolina Panthers and Josh Allen of the Jacksonville Jaguars each receiving $24 million franchise tags and Danielle Hunter of the Minnesota Vikings all but certain to also receive well over $20 million a season, getting a player just entering the prime of his career with double-digit sack upside for less than half that isn’t bad.
And in an increased role, Armstrong is absolutely capable of
posting a 10-sack season.
DL: Quinton Jefferson8 of 11
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Quinton Jefferson has racked up the frequent flyer miles in
recent years. In 2019, Jefferson played in Seattle. In 2020 it was the Buffalo
Bills. In 2021, it was Las Vegas Raiders. Jefferson went back to the Emerald
City in 2022, and then spent 2023 with the New York Jets, where he amassed 34
tackles and a career-high six sacks.
Per Steve Serby of the New York Post, were it up to Jets defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, the 30-year-old wouldn’t be headed anywhere in 2023 but back to Gang Green.
“Here’s a guy from the outside looking in.” he said, “I always had tremendous respect for because of the player that he is and the strain that he puts on tape and the teammate that everybody spoke of that he is, and then to find out there was this other side of him, I just gained that much more respect and regard for this man. Just an exceptional human being.”
Now, there are reasons why Jefferson could find himself on
his fifth different team since 2019 this year. He spent the end of the 2023
season on injured reserve with a hip injury. And while Jefferson is a
rock-solid pass-rusher on the inside, his run defense can be hit-or-miss.
But in an NFL where getting to the quarterback is more
important than ever, being able to add a pocket-collapsing big man for $5
million or less a season should appeal to no shortage of general managers.
LB: Azeez Al-Shaair9 of 11
Cooper Neill/Getty Images
There are no shortage of big-name free agents at linebacker this year, whether it’s future Hall of Famers like Bobby Wagner of the Seattle Seahawks or Lavonte David of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or younger players like Tampa’s Devin White and Baltimore’s Patrick Queen who are staring at their first huge paydays.
However, there’s another young linebacker coming off a breakout season who could provide elite-level production for significantly less cabbage.
Azeez Al-Shaair bolted San Francisco last year for Tennessee
on a one-year, $5 million contract. He more than lived up to the deal, pacing
the Titans with a whopping 163 total tackles.
Now, Kyle
Madson of Niners Wire thinks the defending NFC champions should look hard
at getting Al-Shaair back in the fold.
“The 49ers aren’t going to have much wiggle room under the salary cap to spend big in free agency,” he wrote. “After a strong year with the Titans Al-Shaair may have priced himself out of what the 49ers can afford. However, an Achilles tear for LB Dre Greenlaw complicates things a bit for a team that has thrived thanks to its defense’s ability to cover in the second level. Neither LB Oren Burks nor Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles was good enough in the Super Bowl and it showed. Adding a player like Al-Shaair gives San Francisco a familiar face who knows their defense and provides a short-term replacement for Greenlaw while he recovers from his Achilles tear, and a potential long-term option to replace Greenlaw if winds up leaving in free agency after the 2024 season.”
Rest assured, just as he did in 2023, Al-Shaair is going to out-play
linebackers this season who make substantially more money.
If that isn’t value, what is?
CB: Chidobe Awuzie10 of 11
Ryan Kang/Getty Images
Had cornerback Chidobe Awuzie entered free agency after the 2021 season, he may well have hit the jackpot. In the Cincinnati Bengals’ march to the Super Bowl that year, Awuzie played like one of the best players at his position in the game. Statistically speaking, he started the 2022 season off even better.
But halfway through the 2022 campaign, Awuzie tore his ACL.
That was followed by an uneven and injury-marred 2023 where Awuzie missed two
games and allowed a passer rating against of 113.5.
Per Paul Dehner of the Athletic, Awuzie has heard the doubters who say the 28-year-old has lost a step since his injury. However, he’s not buying that for a second.
“That’s funny to me,” he said. “Because I know the type of player I am. I was thinking about this the other day, you see LeBron (James) playing in Year — what, 25?! Or 20 or 21? — competing at the highest level. Science and physical therapy and stuff has really improved over the last couple of years. And I feel like I’m one of those guys that’s always been trying to do the next thing and stay on top of my body. My speeds are still very high and my cuts, I feel like myself. All it takes is other people to see that.”
Given the last two seasons, it’s possible (if not probable) that Awuzie is going to have to sign a relatively modest one-year deal. To prove that he’s back to being the high-end corner we saw in 2021 and part of 2022.
If he can come close to that, he’ll be one of the biggest steals in all of free agency.
S: Julian Blackmon11 of 11
Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
There was already no shortage of name players in free agency
at safety, even after Antoine Winfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was
franchise-tagged—Xavier McKinney of the New York Giants and Budda Baker of the
Arizona Cardinals chief among them. The pool got that much deeper Tuesday when
the Seattle Seahawks released Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs. Most of those
players will make big bucks in 2024.
Julian Blackmon isn’t going to see the sort of cheese that those stars are. But for teams looking for quality play at the position without breaking the bank, the fifth-year veteran should absolutely be on the watch list.
Durability is admittedly a concern with the 25-year-old—Blackmon has missed time in all four pro seasons. But when out there, Blackmon is the sort of versatile safety modern NFL teams covet—stout enough against the run to play in the box (career-high 88 tackles a year ago) without being a liability in coverage. In fact, Blackmon’s passer rating against in 2023 was a miniscule 46.6.
While speaking to reporters, Colts general manager Chris Ballard applauded Blackmon’s level of play last year.
“I thought Julian Blackmon played really good football this year,” Ballard said. “It sucked when he got hurt. That hurt when we lost him. I thought he played excellent football.”
The Colts won’t be alone in their interest in Blackmon. But given those durability issues, Blackmon’s salary should remain in a spot where even cap-strapped teams with a need at the position can consider taking a run at him.
