2025 Belmont Stakes weather forecast, outlook, update: Best 3 horses to target for Saratoga Race Course

Weather has been a major factor in the 2025 Triple Crown horse races, and Mother Nature will impact the 2025 Belmont Stakes to some degree as well. The latest 2025 Belmont Stakes forecast is calling for steady rain throughout the morning and early afternoon on Saturday at Sarasota Race Course, which is hosting the Belmont Stakes 2025 as Belmont Park continues to undergo a renovation. The good news, at least for the spectators, is that the chance of precipitation falls to around 15% by the 7:04 p.m. ET post time.

The 2025 Belmont Stakes odds list Sovereignty as the 2-1 favorite. A wet track was not an issue for him at the Kentucky Derby, as he ran through the mud and held off Journalism by 1 1/2 lengths in May. Though Pimlico Race Course was considered “fast” by post time at the Preakness, there had been rain through that day in Baltimore before Journalism pulled off a come-from-behind win in that race.

With the 2025 Belmont Stakes weather forecast coming into focus as post time approaches, bettors are making their final selections. Should you back one of the favorites in the 2025 Belmont Stakes, especially given that they have some experience tracks that have taken on some rain, or should you take a swing on a huge longshot like Uncaged, who has a win on a sloppy track on his resume? 

2025 Belmont Stakes weather forecastDay

Skies

Temperature

Rain Chance

Saturday 3 p.m. ET

Cloudy

68

10%

Saturday 5 p.m. ET

Partly cloudy

72

5%

Post time (7:04 p.m. ET)

Partly cloudy

68

15%

The team at SportsLine has taken a deep dive into the history of the 2025 Belmont horses to see which ones are bred to thrive in sloppy conditions.

You can use their advice to make picks on Belmont Stakes betting sites and get the latest FanDuel Racing promo code and TwinSpires promo code. You can also evaluate the 2025 Belmont odds to get the latest 2025 Belmont Stakes picks.

Here are three Belmont horses to target, given the potential Saratoga track conditions, to help you figure out how to bet the Belmont Stakes: 

Sovereignty (2-1)He’s only run once on an off track, winning the Kentucky Derby with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure on a sloppy track. Sovereignty held off eventual Preakness champion, Journalism, and the fast closing Baeza to win the first jewel of the Triple Crown. After skipping the Preakness Stakes to target this race, trainer Bill Mott’s horse comes in fresh looking to hold off the seven challengers in the Belmont Stakes.

An advantage that Sovereignty might have this time is not having to go as wide during the race. With so many horses in the field, he had to move out 5-6 paths off the rail to find the room to make his winning run. With less than half of the field as we saw in Louisville, Sovereignty should be able to save more ground and battle the front runners and Journalism down the stretch on Saturday. You can bet Sovereignty at FanDuel Racing now and get a no-sweat first bet up to $500:

Crudo (15-1)Owned by celebrity chef Bobby Flay, Crudo (15-1) is making only his fourth career start in this year’s Belmont Stakes. His Beyer Speed Figures are around 20 points below the top contenders so from that standpoint, his chances seem remote unless something goes amiss with Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza. But his Tomlinson Wet Figure is 408 which means he is bred to run in wet conditions, so an off track may be to his liking.

Trained by four time Belmont Stakes winner Todd Pletcher, Crudo has two wins in three starts and should look to be towards the front of the pack heading into the first turn. While he may have to battle the likes of Rodriguez and Uncaged for the top spot early, Crudo could save ground and have more stamina down the home stretch to hold off the deep closers. He is worth a look at a big price especially if the track is not rated fast. You can bet Crudo now at TwinSpires and get up to $400 in bonus bets:

Uncaged (30-1)The Kentucky Derby is still a fresh memory for racing fans, especially with the top three finishers competing again on Saturday night. While all three of them gained experience on a sloppy track, Uncaged is a Belmont Stakes longshot who has experience on an off track as well. He has two wins from two starts on an off track, posting the highest Beyer Speed Figure of his career in his debut on a muddy track at Saratoga.

Uncaged will likely have another chance to run on a wet track at Saratoga on Saturday, giving him an advantage over some of the other horses in the field. He also won an allowance race at Aqueduct Racetrack in April at one mile in the mud. Trainer Todd Pletcher’s horse is being overlooked following a sixth-place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes last month, but the track conditions could suit him perfectly for the final leg of the Triple Crown. You can bet Uncaged at FanDuel Racing now and get a no-sweat first bet up to $500:

How to make 2025 Belmont Stakes picks, betsSportsLine’s Jody Demling nailed the Kentucky Derby trifecta and Preakness exacta this year, as well as having picked the winner of the Belmont in 4 of the last 7 years. His pick to win might surprise some, but could be “best value” in the race. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Belmont leaderboard and betting tickets, over at SportsLine.

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