32 Thoughts Ahead of NFL Week 12

Brad Gagnon@@Brad_GagnonFeatured Columnist IVNovember 22, 202432 Thoughts Ahead of NFL Week 120 of 8

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Each Friday throughout the 2024 NFL season, we’re performing a leaguewide check-in with quick-hit takes about all 32 squads based on news, fodder, trends and results.

On the brink of Thanksgiving, the intensity has been turned up for the home stretch.

Let’s jump into what’s dominating the national football conversation this week.

AFC East1 of 8

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Buffalo Bills: It continues to feel as though this is their year. That prime-time September blowout loss to the Ravens feels like ancient history—and an anomaly. Buffalo at Detroit in mid-December could be a thrilling Super Bowl preview between two snake-bitten franchises seeking their first Lombardi Trophy.

Miami Dolphins: I’m not getting fooled by victories over the Rams and Raiders, even if they did hang with the Bills before that. Miami always does this. Watch this team get smoked in its next two road games in Green Bay and Houston.

New England Patriots: Many of the pieces are in place, and the energy is there. I can see them playing spoiler once or twice more.

New York Jets: Prepare during the bye for the final six starts of Aaron Rodgers’ career, if he even hangs around until Week 18. Yawn.

AFC North2 of 8

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Baltimore Ravens: With the way the offense has performed, it’s ridiculous that they have four losses. All four defeats have come within the AFC, and the remaining schedule is tough. I don’t see this ending well.

Cincinnati Bengals: Back-to-back brutal pre-bye losses pretty much cement this as a wasted spectacular season for Joe Burrow. They basically have to run the table now, and the defense isn’t capable of that.

Cleveland Browns: Congratulations on the snowy victory? Always nice to beat a strong division rival in prime time at home, even if it could cost you critical draft capital in an attempt to replace Deshaun Watson.

Pittsburgh Steelers: That’s the second weird, weather-impacted prime-time home loss of the season for the Steelers. It could be the difference between winning and not winning the AFC North.

AFC South3 of 8

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Houston Texans: To be considered a true contender, they need to beat a heavyweight. It’s all about how they fare against Kansas City and Baltimore in Weeks 16 and 17, respectively.

Indianapolis Colts: Is the sudden resurgence of Anthony Richardson a sign of things to come or an aberrational performance from a dude who is talented enough to put those together on occasion? Sunday’s matchup with the Lions will be telling.

Jacksonville Jaguars: They hit the bye on track for the No. 1 overall pick. Will they one day regret not just cutting bait on Trevor Lawrence and taking a quarterback early in the 2025 draft? Maybe they’ll do it. The Broncos did something similarly wild with Russell Wilson/Bo Nix and are already smiling. Big moments are coming in Jacksonville, one way or another.

Tennessee Titans: They half-assed the rebuild this year, lining the roster with veterans who, in many cases, were overpaid and/or beyond their primes. Now, they need to full-ass it. Blow it up in six weeks’ time.

AFC West4 of 8

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Denver Broncos: Bo Nix is making a legit run at Offensive Rookie of the Year. Imagine how much better he and this team could be this year and in upcoming seasons if they weren’t still wasting so much money on Russell Wilson? I guess there’s no point in thinking about it now.

Kansas City Chiefs: Told you the path would eventually get rocky. I do believe they have more losses in them, especially during a season-closing stretch against Houston, Pittsburgh and Denver. They won’t win the AFC.

Las Vegas Raiders: The rest of their season is just so sadly irrelevant, aside from a potential spoiler opportunity against the Chiefs on Black Friday. The Raiders won’t be interesting again until we’re talking about what is likely to be a top-five draft pick and their quarterback targets in the 2025 offseason.

Los Angeles Chargers: That’s eight straight interception-free games from Justin Herbert, and the balance is there both offensively and overall. Jim Harbaugh has changed this franchise, maybe dramatically. Now the real test comes with Baltimore on Monday night, Atlanta on the road and the Chiefs in prime time over the next three weeks. Win all of them and they’re a contender for the AFC West crown.

NFC East5 of 8

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Dallas Cowboys: The worst part of this torched Dallas season is we’re stuck with a useless Giants-Cowboys matchup on Thanksgiving. Too bad they can’t flex that. I’ll bet it’s Mike McCarthy’s finale. And the NFC East will fail to have a repeat winner for the 20th year in a row. That’s one of the wildest stats in the NFL.

New York Giants: They’d better hope Tommy DeVito doesn’t give them some sort of a late-season jolt, because they’re going to need that primo 2025 draft pick for the rebuild.

Philadelphia Eagles: They’ve scored at least 28 points in five straight games and haven’t lost since September. That Week 5 bye apparently changed their season—and likely saved many jobs. I’m already looking forward to a seemingly inevitable Eagles-Lions NFC title game.

Washington Commanders: Their only wins in the last month came by fluke against Chicago and by five measly points over the soft Giants. The schedule should allow them to hang onto a playoff spot, but it became clear last Thursday that this division is Philadelphia’s.

NFC North6 of 8

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Chicago Bears: Barring a sudden streak, it’s over for a team that hasn’t scored 20 points in a game since Oct. 13. Now it’s all about testing Caleb Williams and the Thomas Brown-led offense. Continued signs of life could save head coach Matt Eberflus and position them to confidently build on what they have this offseason.

Detroit Lions: Imagine the conversation we’d be having if they had completed a drive that nearly beat the Buccaneers late in Week 2? They’d be undefeated with just three road games remaining. If they didn’t have the Lions’ historical stink and a quarterback who hasn’t completely won over the masses, they’d be the obvious Super Bowl favorite.

Green Bay Packers: A wild-card spot seems inevitable now. The fluctuations have been dramatic, and they’ll limit their potential in 2024. They’ll need more stability beyond that.

Minnesota Vikings: The mission now is to remain within a game of the Lions until they travel to Detroit in Week 18, where anything could happen. For what it’s worth, they should be favored in each of their next six games. Still, I don’t trust Sam Darnold enough to believe they can win them all, which may be necessary.

NFC South7 of 8

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Atlanta Falcons: The defense continues to be a problem as they hit their bye. December road tests in Minnesota and Washington could be pivotal, but they might win the division anyway. The ceiling is pretty low regardless, unless something changes fast.

Carolina Panthers: The next seven weeks are likely to determine what happens with Bryce Young. The schedule is tough, which is a good thing both in terms of that test and their chances to winding up with a high draft pick in order to replace him if necessary.

New Orleans Saints: Like the Panthers, they’re amid a sudden two-game winning streak. But with two weeks to prepare for the Rams at home and the offense healthy and rolling, I wouldn’t rule out a run at the shaky Falcons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They’ve lost four in a row and four of the next five are on the road. It’s over, and big changes should be coming in the offseason.

NFC West8 of 8

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Arizona Cardinals: Still just one loss since the start of October, but the next two weeks (in Seattle and Minnesota) could determine their fate for 2024. Their only two road wins this season have come by a combined total of two points.

Los Angeles Rams: They’re staying alive, but I just don’t know if they have the overall firepower to keep their heads above water with the Eagles and Bills coming to town over the course of the next three weeks. This is also a crossroads for the Rams.

San Francisco 49ers: Oh, and them! With road games in Green Bay and Buffalo the next two weeks and then no easy outs the remainder of the season. The Niners are so beat-up that it’s really hard to see them bouncing back from that tough home loss to Seattle.

Seattle Seahawks: A back-breaker for San Francisco could go down as a season-saver for a feisty Seattle team that lacks consistency but not overall talent. The Seahawks get to take aim at the division leaders twice in the next three weeks, and you can’t rule anything out with these guys.