3DownNation CFL Week 21 predictions: best bets for Redblacks at Ticats, Stamps at Elks, Als at Bombers

Photo courtesy: Calgary Stampeders
The Canadian Football League has reached its final week, and there’s still a lot on the line going into everyone’s final game.

We went 3-0 last week, so let’s see if we can finish strong as we enter the last week with four games to pick from.

Ottawa Redblacks at Hamilton Tiger-Cats — Friday, October 24 at 7:00 p.m. EDT
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are looking to wrap-up the top spot in the East Division as they take on Ottawa, which is looking to go from last place to, well, tied for last place.

This week can be very tricky, so it’s important to rely on what we know for sure and this is a strong example of that. We don’t have to worry about players resting or motivations or anything like that — both teams have very black-and-white scenarios for this game.

With that said, I don’t see how Ottawa keeps this game close. The Redblacks have lost five in a row and seven of their last eight. Four of those seven losses have been by double digits, contributing to the seven losses of nine points or more they’ve suffered this season. It has been a year to forget for Ottawa.

They’re taking on a Hamilton team that’s looking to make this a year to remember. While the Tabbies are looking to clinch top spot in the East, they are also just trying to get back on track as they’ve two of their last three by a combined score of 77-23.

I know the Tiger-Cats aren’t playing their best football right now, but I don’t see a way that they don’t win this game by a lot, considering what’s on the line. The main concern I have with a spread this high is Hamilton getting up by enough that they rest their starters and Ottawa slips in a backdoor cover, but I’ll take my chances with the team that’s looking to clinch a first-round bye.

PICK: Hamilton -13.5
Calgary Stampeders at Edmonton Elks — Friday, October 24 at 9:30 p.m. EDT
The third instalment of the Battle of Alberta features the Elks trying to play spoiler against Calgary.

There are a lot of different scenarios for the Stamps heading into the final week of the season, but all the ones they are interested in require them to win this game. As such, this is another game where one team has a lot on the line and the other doesn’t.

The Stampeders’ last game with Edmonton was in the Labour Day rematch, and it saw the Elks beat Calgary, which sent the Stamps spiralling on a four-game losing streak. Calgary has recently worked out of that with two dominant wins over Hamilton and Toronto.

Meanwhile, Edmonton saw its playoff hopes come to an end against the Lions. This is another game where we don’t have to go too deep into the stats for the analysis. Edmonton doesn’t have anything to play for, and they got thumped last week, while Calgary has a lot to play for, and they have scored 81 points in the last two games.

I expect Vernon Adams Jr. to put an exclamation point on his first season in Calgary with a strong performance against a defence that just got torched by Nathan Rourke last week.

PICK: Calgary -5.5
Montreal Alouettes at Winnipeg Blue Bombers — Saturday, October 25 at 3:00 p.m. EDT
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers host the Montreal Alouettes in a game that will probably have meaning, but just how much is yet to be determined.

If Hamilton wins on Friday, then Montreal will finish second in the East, while Winnipeg’s scenario is a little cloudy, but we should have a bit of clarity on it based on the Calgary game.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty, which was something I said before that I was looking to avoid. However, I saw Winnipeg play last week, and that was all I needed to see. That was one of the worst performances I’ve seen from a team in a must-win game in a long time.

Even if Montreal decides to rest its starters based on the Hamilton-Ottawa outcome, I’m not confident that Winnipeg dominates this game. Saskatchewan’s backups came close to beating them last week, and Montreal’s backups have played a bunch this year because of various injury problems.

I don’t see Jason Maas’ team fully letting up even if their playoff fate is decided. They’re rolling at the moment, having scored 30-plus points in four of the five games on their current win streak. On the defensive side, they have the second-most sacks in the league this year. Obviously, a lot of the players who contributed to that high total may not be in the lineup depending on how things play out, but Winnipeg has struggled to protect their QBs all season long regardless of who is on the other side.

There is a very real chance I am letting one game cloud my judgment here, but it was a really bad game. I’ve also liked how Montreal has played all season long, regardless of any injury issues they’ve had, so I think they’ll be able to keep this game close.

PICK: Montreal +5.5