5 NFL Offenses Who Could Break Out in 2025: Caleb Williams & Geno Smith Lead the Way

The NFL doesn’t hand out repeat fairytales, but every year, a new team scripts one, anyway. Last season, it was the Commanders. A new head coach. A rookie quarterback. And a fresh offensive identity. It all culminated in Washington reaching its first NFC Championship game since 1991. Jayden Daniels was at the heart of it. An unflinching rookie who turned a chaotic franchise into a top-tier offense.

Then, take the Bucs, who found similar magic the year prior with Baker Mayfield’s late-career surge. Before that, it was Mike McDaniel turning Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle into heat-seeking missiles. These stories are becoming more common, but predicting the next breakout isn’t guesswork; it’s pattern recognition. You look for the combination: quarterback upside, schematic clarity, and organizational buy-in.

So, who’s next? Our first shout. Chicago Bears. In Windy City, the Bears are finally matching Caleb Williams’ talent with structure. Ben Johnson, the league’s most coveted play-caller, is now his head coach. That move alone changed the outlook. Johnson’s quick-read system demands timing to be key. Williams will have to speed up his clock, but with improved protection and weapons like Colston Loveland, DJ Moore, and Luther Burden III, the conditions are ripe.

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In Las Vegas, the Raiders’ transformation is schematic and cultural. Pete Carroll has brought in Chip Kelly, whose offensive evolution now emphasizes diversity over speed. Geno Smith, behind an improving line and flanked by a loaded tight end group, gives the Raiders their most coherent offensive vision since Derek Carr’s peak. Kelly’s willingness to use heavy personnel and manufacture space for guys like Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty could put Sin City in the top half of nearly every major offensive metric.

Denver has its own revival act. Bo Nix looked overwhelmed in his first month, then turned into a top-10 quarterback down the stretch. With Sean Payton’s guidance, five returning starters on the offensive line, and a retooled backfield featuring J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey, the Broncos have the stability to let Nix build on his late-season rhythm. “I’m excited to be in the room with him,” Harvey said of Dobbins. “People sleeping on us right now, but we’re going to wake everybody up this year.” If Nix’s accuracy holds and the offense continues to stay on schedule, Denver’s rise won’t just be real—it’ll be sustainable.

Atlanta rounds out the group. The Falcons gave Michael Penix Jr. the keys, and with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, this is no rebuild—it’s a live offense with a playoff ceiling. The work ethic is already surfacing in OTAs. As Bijan put it, “It’s not a want to. It’s a need to.” That urgency could separate the Falcons from other young, unproven groups. But there’s one more offense with the pieces in place, waiting for that final push… And the Jaguars might just cut in with the sleeper push.

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The NFL shouldn’t sleep on the Jaguars next seasonTrevor Lawrence is running out of excuses—and he knows it. Especially when there’s someone like Caleb Williams who had, despite the Bears’ offensive struggles, all the signs to show that he might just have a breakout season in 2025… Now, there’s another new offense in Jacksonville. Another new face as head coach. For most quarterbacks, that’s instability. For Lawrence, it’s been the norm.

But now? The Jags aren’t just shuffling pieces around the QB. They’re going all in on maximizing him. Liam Coen is in. Grant Udinski is running the offense. And Jacksonville’s message is clear: this year, they’re playing fast and building around Lawrence’s strengths, not burying them in another stale dropback-heavy system. As Andrew Hawkins put it, “Less thinking, playing fast, playing decisive.”

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Because we’ve seen Coen cook before. Just last year in Tampa, his offense lifted the Bucs from 30th in EPA per rush to tied for second. That’s not theory. That’s the impact. Jacksonville’s run game under Doug Pederson? A bleak 28th in EPA per rush. So the Jaguars brought in Robert Hainsey, who thrived in Coen’s system in Tampa, and paired him with Patrick Mekari to fix that. If the run game gets humming, the play-action opens up. That’s when Lawrence looks like the guy from 2022. The one who beat the Chargers in the playoffs. The one who made Jacksonville believe.

Of course, none of this works unless the quarterback clicks. And that’s why Lawrence has to start fast. “Those numbers are not good,” Austen Lane said about Lawrence’s 22 TD, 14 INT projection. “I don’t care what the other stats say.” No one does anymore. Not in Year 5. Not after $275 million. The schedule’s manageable. The division is winnable. And the system? It’s finally tailored to Lawrence.