5 Reasons Dallas Mavericks Can Make History in NBA Finals Comeback vs. Boston Celtics
5 Reasons Dallas Mavericks Can Make History in NBA Finals Comeback vs. Boston Celtics0 of 5
Luka DonÄiÄNathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
DALLAS ā After the Dallas Mavericks clobbered the Boston Celtics, 122-84, in Friday’s Game 4, you can be sure some form of “Can Dallas pull off the unthinkable?” will float around the internet and hot-take shows between now and Game 5.
The short answer to the question is probably “Nope.” But as a former Celtic once told us, anything is possible.
When it comes down to it, there are a few reasons Dallas could be the first team in NBA history to complete a series comeback after falling into an 0-3 hole.
The biggest ones can be found below.
Mavs Are Good on the Road1 of 5
Kyrie Irving and Jrue HolidayChina Wong/NBAE via Getty Images
Dallas got blown out in Boston in Game 1. And in the first two games, both on the road, Kyrie Irving shot 13-of-37 (35.1 percent) from the field.
Of course, the biggest problem for Dallas now that we’re at Game 5 is that the Celtics have been a juggernaut at the Garden throughout 2023-24.
When you combine regular and postseason results, Boston is 45-6 at home. The team is plus-730 points there, a mark that trails only the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, 2016-17 Golden State Warriors, 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks and 2015-16 Warriors.
Sneaking another win by a group that good on its own floor will be no small feat.
But Dallas has been strong on the road this season.
In the regular season, the Mavs were tied for fifth in winning percentage on the road and tied for eighth in road net rating. Kyrie’s struggles in Games 1 and 2 aside, he averaged 24.2 points and 5.0 assists on the road in 2023-24 and had a higher true shooting percentage in those games.
Luka DonÄiÄ was predictably prolific in the same setting. He averaged 33.5 points, 9.6 assists, and 9.4 rebounds away from Dallas. And he, too, had a higher true shooting percentage on the road.
Winning, though, will obviously take more than pointing to the stat sheet. Getting to those kinds of numbers in Game 5 will be tough, as Luka and Kyrie are both all-time great playoff performers.
They showed their pride and the ceiling they’re capable of reaching in Game 4 when they combined for 50 points on 22-of-44 shooting without having to play any of the fourth quarter.
Dallas May Have Figured Something out with the Bench2 of 5
Dante ExumNathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
When he was healthy, Dante Exum was an X-factor for the Mavericks in the regular season.
At 6’5″ with a 6’9″ wingspan, he’s big for a playmaker. He doesn’t hold the ball, pushes the pace a bit and isn’t afraid of challenging defensive assignments like either of Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown.
But his three-point shot sort of betrayed him in the first three rounds of the playoffs, and coach Jason Kidd clearly lost trust in him.
In the regular season, Exum averaged 19.8 minutes and shot 49.1 percent from deep. Coming into Friday’s Game 4, he was at 6.4 minutes with a 26.7 three-point percentage.
But he infused a ton of energy into the Mavericks in Friday’s first half. He hit two threes and was plus-15 in just 14 minutes. He had multiple stout defensive possessions on Celtics guards and wings. And if he’s back to his regular-season form, he could be a legitimate game-changer.
Prior to the playoffs, Dallas was plus-2.6 points per 100 possessions when Luka played without Exum and plus-16.6 when he played with him. His low-usage, high-effort game looked like a perfect complement to Luka’s.
But of course, he’s not the only potential swing piece off the bench. A lot of that same praise can be allowed to another Australian, Josh Green, who’s even bouncier than Exum.
And of course, there’s Dereck Lively II, who’s on track to finish the playoffs with more wins over replacement player than anyone in league history’s ever piled up in an age-19 (or younger) season.
Lively’s relentless activity around the basket led to 11 points and 12 rebounds in 22 minutes. He was plus-20 and hit a three. Seven of those boards were on the offensive end, and those extra possessions were big in demoralizing Boston early on. To this day, offensive rebounding remains one of basketball’s most underrated forms of shot creation.
“I think people forget he’s a rookie,” Luka told reporters after the game. “He’s a rookie doing this stuff. He’s been amazing the whole season.”
As this series goes on, Lively’s minutes are likely to keep rising (starting 5 Daniel Gafford only played 10 minutes in Game 4), and Boston doesn’t really have anyone to challenge him physically.
Kristaps PorziÅÄ£is’ Injury3 of 5
Kristaps PorziÅÄ£isStacy Revere/Getty Images
Kristaps PorziÅÄ£is was technically available on Friday, but he didn’t play a second, and it seems unlikely that he will for the rest of the series.
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If he does, he’s not likely to be 100 percent, and without KP’s rim protection and scoring ability as either a pick-and-pop or pick-and-roll threat, Boston’s simply not as good.
The back line of defense is far more formidable with a mobile, 7’3″ shot-blocker. The driving lanes for Tatum and Brown are more open when bigs have to chase PorziÅÄ£is around the three-point line.
If he’s out again in Game 5, Dallas’ margin for error will be slightly bigger.
Dallas Has Luka DonÄiÄ4 of 5
Luka DonÄiÄStacy Revere/Getty Images
We dabbled in this take earlier, but Luka is a truly ridiculous playoff performer. Dallas may be down 1-3, but it still has the best individual player in this series.
DonÄiÄ is third all-time in career box plus/minus in playoff road games behind only Nikola JokiÄ and Michael Jordan. In 27 games under those circumstances, he’s put up 32.6 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.7 assists while hitting 55.2 percent of his twos and 39.7 percent of his threes.
If there’s one player in the NBA right now capable of carrying his team to two road playoff wins in just three games, it might be Luka. No one seems to relish the opportunity to crush opponents’ fans quite like him.
Of course, that’s not the likeliest path for the remainder of this series. There’s a reason Boston is still the prohibitive favorite to win the Finals. But Dallas doesn’t need to think about overcoming an 0-3 deficit anymore.
“I said at the beginning of this series, it’s the first to four,” Luka said postgame. “And we’re going to believe until the end. I have big belief in this team that we can do it, so you just have to keep believing.”
Now, they only need three straight wins, and we’ve seen that as recently as the 2016 Finals.
Someone’s Bound to Do It Eventually, Right?5 of 5
Kyrie Irving and Derrick WhiteNathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
A total of 156 teams have jumped out to a 3-0 series lead in the NBA playoffs. Not a single one has gone on to lose the series. Only four wound up having to go to a Game 7.
The odds are undoubtedly stacked against the Mavericks, but someone has to be able to make this happen at some point. And the NBA returning to the 2-2-1-1-1 format for the seven-game series feels like a plus for teams that fall into this hole.
This is very much a one-game-at-a-time situation, and if the Mavericks can pull off an upset in Game 5, the amount of pressure on the Celtics in Dallas’ Game 6 will be immense.
Closing out a good NBA team on the road is hard, and the Mavs should be able to play as loose as they did on Friday.
At that point, they’d sort of be playing with found money. Once you open a series with three losses, you’re not even supposed to be able to make that sixth game (only 15 have done that).
Win that one, and all bets are off for a winner-take-all Game 7.
