Projecting each NFL playoff team’s odds to win the Super Bowl, with wild-card matchup analysis

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The NFL playoffs are here. Are we destined for a San Francisco 49ers–Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl showdown, or will one of the teams playing on wild-card weekend pull off an upset en route to a shot at the title?

Jeff Howe breaks down each of the six matchups this weekend before The Athletic’s projection model, created by Austin Mock, reveals the odds each team has to win the Super Bowl.

AFCNo. 2 Buffalo Bills vs. No. 7 Pittsburgh SteelersThe Bills are the league’s hottest team, riding a five-game winning streak into the postseason. Impressively, three of those victories (Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins) came against playoff teams. Their finale against the Dolphins was a perfect encapsulation of the Bills’ season. They’re capable of looking as fierce as any team in the NFL, but they also fight through stretches when they can’t stop making mistakes.

The Steelers fell to 7-7 and the No. 10 seed in Week 15 after losing three consecutive games to non-playoff opponents. But they closed the season on a three-game winning streak and got the help they needed to sneak into the playoffs. Now, if they can pull off an upset, the Steelers could get a chance to beat the hated Ravens for a third time this season — a win in that setting would cause the Ravens to immediately regret resting their starters in the finale.

The Steelers are 2-1 against the Bills in the playoffs, but they haven’t squared off in the postseason in 28 years.

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2024 NFL wild card odds: Bills, Cowboys big favorites, Browns, Eagles favored on the road

No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs vs. No. 6 Miami DolphinsThe league is about to get its answer on the Chiefs, who have endured their most difficult season in years and went 3-4 in Patrick Mahomes’ last seven starts. Can Mahomes and a mistake-prone supporting cast turn it on in the playoffs and prove all the concern and criticism was unnecessary? Or will a season’s worth of mistakes continue to haunt them in the playoffs and end their shot at a Super Bowl repeat?

The Chiefs do have the upper hand in the matchup with the Dolphins, who have a five-game playoff losing streak dating back to 2000. The Dolphins also closed the regular season on a two-game skid against the AFC’s top-two seeds, and they fell to the Chiefs, 21-14, in Germany in Week 9. It’s time for the Dolphins to beat top-tier teams with more consistency to be viewed as an AFC contender.

No. 4 Houston Texans vs. No. 5 Cleveland BrownsThis should be a terrific matchup between teams being led by the two favorites for coach of the year. The Texans won the AFC South title in DeMeco Ryans’ first season at the helm, and a massive amount of credit belongs to NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite C.J. Stroud. The quarterback completed 63.9 percent of his passes for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions in 15 games.

Browns coach Kevin Stefanski got his team to the postseason despite starting five quarterbacks, and new starter Joe Flacco is on a statistical heater. The 38-year-old has won four of his five starts and has 1,616 yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Flacco’s numbers have been superior to Deshaun Watson, and it’s fair to wonder whether the Browns would rethink their quarterback situation next season if they make a playoff run.

The Browns beat the Texans 36-22 in Week 16, but Stroud was out with a concussion.

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NFCNo. 2 Dallas Cowboys vs. No. 7 Green Bay PackersThe Cowboys have looked like a juggernaut at times, and they’re undefeated at home. But there’s a notable concern when they aren’t winning by lopsided margins. They’re 3-2 this season in one-possession games, and they’ve only won twice all season when they’ve trailed at any point after the first quarter. The Packers were 6-5 in one-possession games this season, so they’re used to tight contests. They’ve also won five of their last six one-possession games.

Quarterback Jordan Love will make his playoff debut for the Packers, who lost three of their previous four postseason games with Aaron Rodgers. That’s already a moral victory for Green Bay as it’s ahead of schedule in the post-Rodgers rebuild.

The teams have split their eight playoff meetings, but the Packers have won the last two encounters since the 2014 season.

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2024 Super Bowl odds: 49ers enter playoffs as favorite, ahead of the Ravens

No. 3 Detroit Lions vs. No. 6 Los Angeles RamsThe Lions are hosting a playoff game for the first time in 30 years, and they’re trying to win a postseason contest for the first time in 32 years. Since no good deed goes unpunished, Lions fans will now have to root against one of the most popular figures in franchise history with quarterback Matthew Stafford returning to town.

Stafford and the Rams are back in the playoffs after suffering the worst record in history (5-12) for a defending Super Bowl champion. Rams coach Sean McVay found his spark again and doubled the Rams’ win total from a season ago.

The Lions and Rams have only played once since the Jared Goff-Stafford trade, with the Rams winning, 28-19, in 2021.

No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. No. 5 Philadelphia EaglesThese teams have been moving in opposite directions. Philly, the defending NFC champs, has lost five of their last six games, with its lone win in that stretch coming against the New York Giants. It won’t help that quarterback Jalen Hurts (dislocated finger) and wide receiver A.J. Brown (knee) were injured Sunday against the Giants, while wideout Devonta Smith (ankle) missed the finale.

Meanwhile, the Bucs won five of six to take their third consecutive NFC South title. Tampa Bay has only taken out one playoff team (Packers) during that stretch, but the Bucs have mastered the art of winning ugly. These teams have split their four playoff meetings since 2000, but the Bucs have won the last two. The Eagles won their regular-season encounter, 25-11, in Week 3.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is making his third-career playoff start after going 1-1 with the Browns during the 2020 postseason, and he’ll be facing a Matt Patricia-led defense that hasn’t offered much resistance of late.

(Photo of Matthew Stafford: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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