Predicting Where Top Players Involved in MLB Trade Rumors Will Finish ’24 Season

Kerry Miller@@kerrancejamesFeatured Columnist IVFebruary 26, 2024Predicting Where Top Players Involved in MLB Trade Rumors Will Finish ’24 Season0 of 10

Mike TroutBrandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Major League Baseball’s 2024 regular season doesn’t begin for another month, and the trade deadline is more than five months away on July 30.

But those gears are always turning, aren’t they?

There probably won’t be any massive trades today or tomorrow. In fact, the only trade that went down between Feb. 12 and March 22 last year was a swap of Mark Mathias for a player to be named later. However, we can already make some educated guesses at which teams will eventually become sellers and which expiring assets they’ll be looking to sell.

To take it one step further down the rabbit hole, it’s never too early to theorize where those trade-block candidates could be headed.

So let’s make some official prognostications about 10 of the biggest names already popping up in trade rumors/speculations.

For several of the players on this list, the pick is that they don’t get traded. Even for those, though, we’ll explain why they might not be on the move and maybe offer up an “if he does get traded” potential landing spot.

Players are presented in alphabetical order.

Baseball Trade Values have been included as a gauge for how much each player theoretically would fetch if traded.

Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers1 of 10

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2023 Stats: .217/.310/.407, 24 HR, 80 RBI, 3.0 bWAR

Contract Situation: $12.25M in 2024, free agent this winter

Baseball Trade Value: 11.1

Finishes 2024 With: San Francisco Giants

It remains wholly unclear whether Milwaukee views itself as a contender this season.

Some of the Brewers’ offseason moves—most notably trading away Corbin Burnes—suggest they are less than all the way in on making the playoffs in 2024. But other decisions—most notably signing Rhys Hoskins and not yet trading away Willy Adames—make it seem like they at least plan to give it a go for a few months.

By the end of July, though, they’ll probably be far enough back in the NL Central standings to part with their impending free agent who has accounted for 55 home runs and 178 RBI over the past two seasons, trailing only Corey Seager (66 and 179) and Francisco Lindor (57 and 205) among guys who primarily play shortstop.

So, who figures to be looking for a SS/DH upgrade in a few months?

Most of the presumed contenders look to be in good shape on both fronts, but two potential candidates are San Francisco and Tampa Bay.

The Giants are hopeful that rookie Marco Luciano is ready for the full-time gig, but he has neither been particularly healthy—and is already dealing with a hamstring issue this spring—nor all that productive over the past two seasons (mostly in the minors) and may well be the weakest link in their quest for a wild-card spot in the NL West. That makes the Giants our official pick here.

But if Luciano pans out in the Bay Area, maybe Adames makes a return to the other bay area.

He spent his first three-plus seasons with the Rays, who are presently throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks at shortstop. They signed Amed Rosario, traded for Jose Caballero and have high hopes for Junior Caminero, but a temporary reunion with Adames might be their best bet.

Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets2 of 10

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2023 Stats: .217/.318/.504, 46 HR, 118 RBI, 3.2 bWAR

Contract Situation: $20.5M in 2024, free agent this winter

Baseball Trade Value: 11.2

Finishes 2024 With: Toronto Blue Jays

Barring the unlikely scenario that the Yankees or Astros fall so far out of playoff contention that impending free agents Juan Soto or Alex Bregman land on the trade block, Pete Alonso is the position player who could make or break this year’s trade deadline.

Since his debut in 2019, Alonso’s home-run total of 192 is highest in the majors, edging out No. 2 Matt Olson by a margin of 15 dingers.

If Alonso hits the trade block, it would be similar to three years ago when Minnesota parted with Nelson Cruz and got one of Tampa Bay’s top prospects (Joe Ryan) for the slugger who had 20 more home runs than everyone else from 2014-20.

There might be even more interest in Alonso than there was in Cruz, too, considering we’re talking about a 29-year-old as opposed to a 41-year-old.

Teams have grown increasingly reluctant to give up a top prospect for a two-month rental, but with Alonso, there’s a good chance he’ll give you 15-20 home runs during those two months—and ideally at least a few more in October. It should be quite the bidding war for the Polar Bear if the Mets are as unimpressive as the preseason projections suggest.

If there’s one team in the majors with a thirst to improve its ability to put runs on the board in the postseason, surely it’s the Toronto Blue Jays, right?

They did have one game in the 2022 wild-card round when the offense showed up in a big way, but they still lost that game 10-9. And in losing each of their other five postseason games over the past four years, they were outscored by a combined total of 20-4. It was also the offense that let them down back in the 2016 ALCS against Cleveland, scoring eight runs in the entirety of that five-game series.

They whiffed on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but maybe they can win the roster-improving race over the summer by making a big swing for Alonso.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians3 of 10

Jason Miller/Getty Images

2023 Stats: 6-6, 128.0 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 1.8 bWAR

Contract Situation: $13.125M in 2024, free agent this winter

Baseball Trade Value: 7.7

Finishes 2024 With: Chicago Cubs

There will be two Cleveland Guardians pitchers on this list, but Shane Bieber is the one much more likely to actually get traded at some point in the next five months.

Bieber is entering his final season before reaching free agency, and there’s just no chance Cleveland will be able to sign the 29-year-old 2020 AL Cy Young winner to a long-term contract.

As such, if they fall out of contention before the trade deadline, there’s about a 110 percent chance Bieber will be on the move.

Even if the Guardians are in the running for a postseason berth, though, there’s a decent chance he could get traded, as the Guardians do have quite the stable of young starting pitchers who they could ride to the finish line if they can flip Bieber for, say, an outfielder who can actually homer from time to time.

One team with a potential need for pitching and an excess of outfield talent is the Chicago Cubs. They’ve got Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Mike Tauchman and Pete Crow-Armstrong all under team control for at least another three years, plus the recent re-signing of Cody Bellinger and highly touted outfield prospects in Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara.

Maybe a one-for-one swap for Tauchman? Or Cleveland adds a second player to the deal to get one of those prospects? We’ll let them work out the specifics, but a couple months of Bieber pitching in Wrigley Field is a reasonable expectation.

Dylan Cease, RHP, Chicago White Sox4 of 10

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2023 Stats: 7-9, 177.0 IP, 4.58 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 2.4 bWAR

Contract Situation: $8M in 2024, arbitration-eligible in 2025, free agent after 2025

Baseball Trade Value: 42.4

Finishes 2024 With: St. Louis Cardinals

It was made clear at last year’s trade deadline and even clearer this offseason that the White Sox aren’t trying to to contend in 2024. They traded away two of their best relievers (Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos) this winter and spent a grand total of $20 million in free agency on one-year deals for a combined seven players.

But they have yet to trade away Dylan Cease, who was maybe the biggest name on the trade block at the start of the offseason—aside from Juan Soto.

This is likely because Chicago wants the trade package to reflect two years’ worth of the Cy Young finalist that Cease was in 2022, while potential suitors have to be concerned they’ll end up with two years’ worth of the Cease who had an ERA more than twice as high in 2023.

However, if a sportsbook was offering a betting line for “Will Dylan Cease be traded before the July 30, 2023 deadline,” the “Yes” option would probably land somewhere in the -300 range, as this feels like more of a question of “who and when” than an “if” situation, given Chicago’s clear rebuilding state.

Baltimore has been one of the most frequently suggested landing spots for Cease, but the Cardinals might make the most sense here.

Sonny Gray was a great pickup for St. Louis, but both the Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn “one year plus a club option” deals feel like band-aid solutions that might not stick. The Cards do have two highly touted pitching prospects in the pipeline in Tink Hence and Tekoah Roby, but both of those 2020 draft picks are likely at least a year away from becoming legitimate options for the rotation.

Emmanuel Clase, RHP, Cleveland Guardians5 of 10

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2023 Stats: 3-9, 72.2 IP, 44 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 0.6 bWAR

Contract Situation: $2.9M in 2024, $4.9M in 2025, $6.4M in 2026, $10M club option ($2M buyout) in 2027, $10M club option ($1M buyout) in 2028

Baseball Trade Value: 51.4

Finishes 2024 With: Cleveland Guardians

Emmanuel Clase keeps popping up as a name on the trade block, and it just never makes much sense.

Cleveland is not a team in rebuilding mode, and Clase’s contract—at least for another year or two—is about as ideal as it can get for a small-market team with little money to spend.

If the Guardians do put him on the trade block, though, they theoretically could get one heck of a haul for the budget-friendly, back-to-back MLB leader in saves.

Baseball Trade Values suggests Cleveland could get a bit more for Clase than Chicago would get for Dylan Cease. And if someone comes calling with that king’s ransom of top prospects, then, sure, the Guardians will answer the phone and consider embracing an immediate future with Scott Barlow at closer.

However, who is going to be that desperate to acquire a closer who doesn’t generate that many strikeouts and who blew 12 saves last season, particularly when a Kenley Jansen or Aroldis Chapman will probably be available as a two-month rental at the deadline?

Don’t get me wrong, Clase is a valuable closer with a 1.97 ERA and 2.44 FIP over the past three seasons in Cleveland. It’s just hard to envision A) Cleveland falling far enough out of the AL Central race to embrace a seller’s mentality and B) another team valuing Clase enough to give up what it would take to acquire him.

Maybe that changes if an established closer for a contender suffers the dreaded UCL injury in June or July and it suddenly gets desperate for a two-year solution in the ninth inning. But as things currently stand, Clase remaining in Cleveland seems most likely.

Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers6 of 10

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2023 Stats: DNP (ACL)

Contract Situation: $12M in 2024, $18M player option ($4M buyout) in 2025, $18M mutual option ($4M buyout) in 2026

Baseball Trade Value: N/A

Finishes 2024 With: Milwaukee Brewers

We’ve previously mentioned that Milwaukee is a bit stuck in no-man’s land, with its ultimate direction somewhat hinging upon how well Rhys Hoskins plays in his return from injury.

For “trade block intrigue” purposes, the ideal scenario is Hoskins looking like his old self while the Brewers sputter to a sub-.500 record. If that happens, Milwaukee will be sellers, and the player option for 2025 won’t dissuade anyone from trading for Hoskins, viewing him as a two-month rental before he declines the option and hits free agency again.

If he does become available, look for Seattle to pounce, especially if Hoskins is willing and able to occasionally reprise his former role as a left fielder. Mariners first baseman Ty France had a down year in 2023, and their corner-outfield situation is far from a strong suit heading into 2024.

But the “good Hoskins, bad Brewers” scenario is kind of a narrow window, right?

If he plays at a high level, it could be a 2023 Cody Bellinger sort of situation in which it keeps the team hanging around in the NL Central picture just long enough to be a buyer at the deadline.

Conversely, if he struggles, will anyone be eager to trade for a guy with an $18 million player option for next season?

We did see the Marlins trade for Josh Bell and his $16.5 million player option last summer, so never say never. However, the gut call here is that Hoskins is an oft-discussed trade candidate who doesn’t actually go anywhere.

Kenley Jansen, RHP, Boston Red Sox7 of 10

Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

2023 Stats: 3-6, 44.2 IP, 29 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 0.8 bWAR

Contract Situation: $16M in 2024, free agent this winter

Baseball Trade Value: negative-2.1

Finishes 2024 With: Philadelphia Phillies

Boston could have quite the intriguing fire sale if it is destined for another year in the AL East basement. In addition to Jansen, the Red Sox have Tyler O’Neill, Nick Pivetta and Chris Martin on expiring deals, plus Lucas Giolito on a two-year deal with a $19M player option for 2025.

But with 420 career saves during the regular season as well as 20 saves with a 2.20 ERA in his postseason career, Jansen is the big one…who has somehow never been traded in his career.

Jansen has gotten a reputation in recent years for being shaky, but he has converted 108-of-124 save chances over the past three seasons. And 87 percent isn’t bad at all. Among the 25 pitchers with at least 40 saves since the beginning of 2021, only Josh Hader (91 percent) is north of 90, and even he had a two-month stretch in 2022 when he couldn’t get anyone out. Hader (103), Jansen and Emmanuel Clase (110) are also the only ones with at least 95 saves during that time.

But, fine, let’s say Jansen is a little shaky now.

At least he has been more consistent than Craig Kimbrel (82 percent), who melted in the postseason for the Phillies last fall.

And at least he has more saves in the past two seasons (70) than any current Phillies pitcher has in his career. (Gregory Soto has 53.)

There are a bunch of contenders who could end up wanting Jansen at the trade deadline, but Philadelphia is the one almost certain to be shopping for relief help. There has also been rumbling in recent weeks that the Phillies could trade for Jansen before the season even begins, but they’ll probably see how things go with Soto, José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez before they make a big move.

Ha-Seong Kim, 2B/SS, San Diego Padres8 of 10

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2023 Stats: .260/.351/.398, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 38 SB, 5.8 bWAR

Contract Situation: $7M in 2024, $7M mutual option ($2M buyout) for 2025

Baseball Trade Value: 20.4

Finishes 2024 With: San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres have been saying throughout the offseason that they would love to re-sign Ha-Seong Kim to a long-term deal.

But will they be able to get it done before it’s too late?

They already have nine guys (some with player options) signed through at least 2027, and putting another high-priced, long-term deal on the books just might not be doable. At any rate, they traded away Juan Soto earlier this offseason because they knew they weren’t going to be able to afford re-signing him next winter.

That isn’t to say Kim’s next contract is going to come anywhere close to matching what Soto fetches next offseason, but Kim is certainly headed for more than the $7M salary San Diego has been paying him over the past few seasons. (And certainly going to decline that mutual option for 2025.)

There’s also the Jackson Merrill factor to consider, as one of the Padres’ top prospects (and one of the top prospects in all of baseball) is a shortstop they took in the first round of the 2021 draft. However, they’ve been using him in the outfield already this spring and might consider permanently shifting him to left field if they’re able to re-up with Kim as their long-term shortstop.

All that to say they just might stay with HSK.

This isn’t anywhere near the Trevor Story situation that the Colorado Rockies completely botched a few years ago. San Diego might be a contender this season and the Padres might be able to re-sign him during the offseason if they hang onto him through the trade deadline even without a long-term deal in place—neither of which were true for those Rockies.

Considering San Diego’s only unrestricted free agents after this season are Kyle Higashioka and Jurickson Profar, there’s just not much for the Padres to part with if things did go downhill and they opted to sell at the deadline. Keeping Kim seems likely.

Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Miami Marlins9 of 10

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2023 Stats: 10-10, 178.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 4.1 bWAR

Contract Situation: $5.5M in 2024, two years of arbitration eligibility remaining

Baseball Trade Value: 65.4

Finishes 2024 With: Baltimore Orioles

Jesús Luzardo has been kind of quietly one of the more valuable starting pitchers over the past two seasons.

Since the start of 2022, he’s one of just 10 pitchers with at least 250 innings of work, a K/9 north of 10.0 and an ERA south of 3.50. The others are Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, Shane McClanahan, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer, Blake Snell and Spencer Strider.

Factor in the very team-friendly price of $5.5M this season with two years of team control yet to come and there’s really no question he would be the most coveted player on the trade block if he lands there.

It would take a lot for Miami to give him up, but Baltimore does have a lot to offer, boasting maybe the best farm system and quite the crop of talent already in the majors.

Without actually drawing up a theoretical trade package for y’all to get mad about, let’s just say there’s not enough room for Baltimore’s entire stockpile of quality position players to get regular playing time. And if they can turn a few of those bats not named Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson or Adley Rutschman into three years of one of the most lethal left-handed starting pitchers in the game today, why not?

Similar motivation on the Miami side of things, as the Marlins have almost too many viable starting pitchers and nowhere near enough bats. Even without Luzardo, they could have a rotation of Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers and Max Meyer for 2025 and beyond. And if trading away Luzardo gets them the offense to provide some run support for that staff, that should be a no-brainer.

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels10 of 10

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2023 Stats: .263/.367/.490, 18 HR, 44 RBI, 2.9 bWAR

Contract Situation: $35.45M annually through 2030

Baseball Trade Value: negative-69.7

Finishes 2024 With: Los Angeles Angels

Here’s the thing about that negative-69.7 trade value. It doesn’t mean Mike Trout is worthless. Far from it. Baseball Trade Values puts his “Adjusted Field Value” at 178.4, which is around the 25th best mark in the majors.

The problem is he has about $250 million left on his contract, and if you subtract that money still due to him from his adjusted field value, you get a big negative number, suggesting he is just about untradable.

But if the Angels are willing to trade him and Trout is willing to waive his full no-trade clause, there would be more than a couple of interested parties from the clubs in the biggest markets.

Including the one just 30 miles down the road.

Even with the deferred Shohei Ohtani contract, the Dodgers are already well on their way to a $300 million luxury tax payroll. If they were to trade for Trout at the deadline, that adds around $12M in prorated salary to the equation. But at that point, what’s a little more overkill on the tax front to add another superstar to the mix?

And with more than $65 million scheduled to come off the books next offseason between Teoscar Hernández, Jason Heyward, Walker Buehler, Joe Kelly, James Paxton and Manuel Margot* hitting free agency, the Dodgers could find the money to pay Trout for 2025 and beyond.

Would the Halos ever do it, though?

Excluding a few “trades” where the Angels purchased a player from the Dodgers, the two Los Angeles franchises have only made three trades dating back to 1976. So, no, probably not. Especially not after feeling like the Dodgers stole Ohtani away from them. That’s why our official projection is that Trout stays with LA’s AL squad.

But from a roster/prospects/budget perspective, the Dodgers would make the most sense as a trade partner if the Angels can swallow that pride while embracing a rebuild.

*Margot has a $12 million mutual option for 2025, but why would the Dodgers exercise that if they have Trout?