Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2024: Busts via MLB simulation that called Daulton Varsho’s difficult season

The New York Mets have run into awful luck with their top talent starting pitching over the last few years and 2024 isn’t off to the best start. The Mets recently announced Kodai Senga, who was expected to be the team’s Opening Day starter, will likely start the season on the injured list due to a shoulder injury. The Mets already had one of the weaker starting rotations in baseball and its depth will be tested from early.

With the news of Senga’s injury and the unknown of how long he’ll be out, how should Fantasy baseball players alter their 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings for Senga with Opening Day a few weeks away? And which other players could end up being 2024 Fantasy baseball busts due to injury or other factors? Before finalizing your 2024 Fantasy baseball draft prep, be sure to see the 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last season, SportsLine’s Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts, including Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho.

Varsho set new career highs in doubles (23), triples (3), home runs (27), RBI (74) and stolen bases (16) in 2022 and Fantasy baseball managers were predicting he’d take another step forward in 2023, drafting him 73rd overall on average. However, the model saw some holes in his game and predicted him as a 2023 Fantasy baseball bust who wouldn’t live up to his Fantasy baseball ADP. 

The result: Varsho’s OPS dropped from .745 to .674 and he also saw drops in home runs (20) and RBI (61), while failing to take advantage of the new baserunning rules (16 steals again). Anybody who followed the model’s advice and avoided Varsho in their Fantasy baseball drafts avoided a major headache.

The SportsLine model is engineered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.

Any time more MLB news comes out about MLB free agency signings or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.

Top 2024 Fantasy baseball bustsOne of the Fantasy baseball busts 2024 the model is fading: Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman. The 26-year-old had a strong season with 20 home runs, 80 RBI and 84 runs scored with a .277 batting average and .809 OPS last year in his second MLB season. He had one of the best seasons for catchers in Fantasy baseball last season, yet, there seems to be an overaction in his current ADP. Rutschman is going as the top catcher off the board in many 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts and the numbers don’t seem to justify that type of selection.

Seven catchers hit more home runs than Rutschman and he was seventh in OPS among catchers with at least 290 at-bats last season. Rutschman was second for catchers in runs scored and tied for second in RBI, but he also had 48 more at-bats than any catcher in baseball while playing 154 games. Catcher is one of the toughest positions on the field and carries a higher injury risk than most, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to play 150 games again this season as a chunk of his success can be credited toward being healthy. The model has Rutschman ranked outside the top five of his position and believes he’s being selected way too early in 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts. 

Another of the 2024 Fantasy baseball busts the model projects won’t live up to their ADP: Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Having just turned 22 last month, De La Cruz looks like one of the most exciting prospects in baseball after showing some incredible flashes during his rookie season in 2023. He hit 13 home runs (including four that went over 450 feet), drove in 44 and stole 35 bases over 98 games.

That incredible potential is a big reason why his current 2024 Fantasy baseball ADP is 37.50, but spending a fourth-round pick on a player who just slashed .235/.300/.410 is a big risk unless you’re in a keeper league. A .336 BABIP doesn’t seem to indicate that De La Cruz was particularly unlucky. Even if you’re expecting his overall batted-ball profile to improve, he’s guaranteed to fight swings and misses after being struck out 194 times across AAA and the big leagues. That’s why the model ranks him behind Willy Adames and Carlos Correa, who are being drafted more than 10 rounds later on average. See more busts at SportsLine.

How to find proven 2024 Fantasy baseball rankingsSportsLine’s model is also fading a surprising starting pitcher who is coming off the board in the third round on average in early 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts. The model is predicting this ace suffers a setback and finishes outside the top 15 at his position. Avoiding him until later on could be the difference in winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.

So which 2024 Fantasy busts should you be avoiding in your upcoming drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that predicted Daulton Varsho’s falloff in 2023, and find out.