Predicting Every MLB Team’s 2024 Home Run Leader
Predicting Every MLB Team’s 2024 Home Run Leader0 of 6
Atlanta’s Matt OlsonRich Schultz/Getty Images
At this early point in the 2023 Major League Baseball campaign, there were 15 players with at least three home runs. The three hailing from the NL East (Matt Olson, Pete Alonso and Jorge Soler) each went on to lead their respective teams in dingers for the year.
However, none of the others did. In fact, two of them (Jason Vosler and Garrett Mitchell) did not homer again in 2023, while two others (Trayce Thompson and Brian Anderson) failed to reach 10 dingers for the year despite a trio of them in the opening week.
So, you know, let’s not put too much stock in what we’ve seen through the first 5 percent of the season when forecasting each team’s home run leader. But there might be a few guys out to hot starts who will be able to ride that early momentum to at least 40 home runs by year end.
Picks are predictive, of course, but rooted primarily in what each player has done in past seasons, with 2023 carrying the most weight.
Teams are broken up by division and listed alphabetically within each division.
American League East1 of 6
Aaron JudgeChristian Petersen/Getty Images
Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson
2023 Leader: Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander tied at 28
Henderson tied for the team lead last season, but it took a little while for the AL Rookie of the Year to get into a groove. After hitting .201 with five home runs in the first two months, he operated at a 37-home run, 110-RBI 162-game pace from June 1 onward. If he can harness that power for a full season, he might be leading more than just the O’s in dingers in 2024.
Boston Red Sox: Tyler O’Neill
2023 Leader: Rafael Devers with 33
Bit of a bold pick here given O’Neill’s rather extensive injury history. However, with this being his contract year, there’s no time like the present to stay healthy and revert to the slugger who was excellent en route to 34 home runs back in 2021. He already has a pair of solo shots, and Boston has exclusively been playing out west thus far, keeping this right-hander from yet being able to take advantage of the Green Monster.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge
2023 Leader: Aaron Judge with 37
Maybe Giancarlo Stanton plays close to 162 games and hits more than 40 home runs for what would be his first time with the Yankees. Or maybe Juan Soto has some fun with that short porch in right field and blows right past his career high of 35 home runs set last season. But if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. And at least so far, Judge ain’t broke. It’s always just a question of whether he’ll play enough games to vie for a home run crown, as he has averaged a home run for every 14 trips to the plate in his career.
Tampa Bay Rays: Jose Siri
2023 Leader: Isaac Paredes with 31
Siri broke out in a big way last year with 25 home runs in 364 plate appearances. He had shown some potential in the past, but aside from hitting four as a September call-up back in 2021, never anything quite like that. Maybe it was a flash in the pan, or maybe it was the start of something special from the center fielder who turned 28 last summer. At any rate, with Manuel Margot out of the picture, Siri should be getting all the at-bats he can handle.
Toronto Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
2023 Leader: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with 26
Not only did Guerrero lead the Blue Jays in home runs last season, but he also did so in both 2022 and 2021. Even though he went from 48 to 32 to 26 in the process, we kind of have to just stick with old faithful here. Keep an eye on Davis Schneider, though. He hit eight home runs in the first 25 games of his MLB career last season, and it only took nine trips to the plate for him to get his first two of this yearâthe second coming off Josh Hader, no less. It’s only because Toronto is stubbornly not playing him on anything close to a daily basis that we can’t make him the pick.
American League Central2 of 6
Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr.Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert Jr.
2023 Leader: Luis Robert Jr. with 38
Robert was already the clear choice here, but then he hit two home runs while Eloy JimĂ©nez has already gotten injured. It’s probably just a question of whether any member of the White Sox will even hit half as many home runs as this stellar center fielder. Robert has had more than his own fair share of injuries, though, and it’s plausible he’ll be traded over the summer, even though he’s under team control through 2027. Those are the two X-factors that could pave the way for JimĂ©nez or Andrew Vaughn to lead the team with something like 23 homers.
Cleveland Guardians: Josh Naylor
2023 Leader: JosĂ© RamĂrez with 24
Jo-Ram led the Guardians in homers last year, but Naylor was the team leader in slugging percentage in nearly 200 fewer trips to the plate. If he can play close to a full season for a change, Cleveland’s clean-up hitter should mash a good number of taters. He’s still just 26 years old, but he has been a great source of hard-hit balls over the past couple of years. This might be the year he becomes more of a household name.
Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson
2023 Leader: Spencer Torkelson with 31
In 2022, Torkelson was supposed to be one of the top contenders for AL Rookie of the Year. To put it lightly, that didn’t go according to plan. However, he was much more proficient in 2023, ranking second in this division in home runs. And he did most of that damage in the second half, with 19 home runs in his final 72 games. He didn’t homer at all during spring training and has yet to go yard during the regular season, but it should just be a matter of time before he starts crushing again.
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr.
2023 Leader: Bobby Witt Jr. with 30
Witt had a sensational sophomore year, going for 30 home runs and 49 stolen bases en route to a gigantic offseason contract extension. The young Royal is already looking good again this season, too, with two home runs in his first four games. Don’t sleep on Nelson VelĂĄzquez, though. After coming over from the Cubs at the trade deadline, he hit 14 home runs in 40 games played with Kansas City last season. Sal Perez is also still a big part of the Royals’ equation.
Minnesota Twins: Carlos Correa
2023 Leader: Max Kepler with 24
Royce Lewis lasted a whole two plate appearances before landing back on the IL with a significant leg injury, and Byron Buxton almost got trampled by the racing pierogies in Milwaukee earlier this week. We know better than to bank on either of them to play enough games to lead this team in home runs. So, maybe Correa can be the guy after a rough 2023? He has not yet hit more than 26 in a season in his career, but that would’ve been enough to lead this team last year.
American League West3 of 6
Houston’s Yordan AlvarezTim Warner/Getty Images
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez
2023 Leader: Yordan Alvarez with 31
Alvarez missed almost a third of last season and still led the Astros in home runs for the third consecutive year, averaging one home run for every 16.4 trips to the plate during that three-season span. He does have competition, though, as Kyle Tucker was not far behind him in any of those years, hitting 89 home runs to Alvarez’s 101. Tucker already went yard twice during Ronel Blanco’s no-hitter on Monday, too. Jose Altuve has three solo shots thus far. Yainer Diaz already has a pair of home runs, too, and is probably the biggest challenger to Alvarez of the bunch.
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout
2023 Leader: Shohei Ohtani with 44
This is the lone case in the American League where we know for a fact it won’t be a repeat team leader, asâI don’t know if you heardâOhtani is no longer an Angel. His departure leaves Trout as the fairly obvious choice, provided he can stay at least moderately healthy. Trout had 40 home runs in just 119 games played in 2022 and has already shown with three 400-plus-foot solo smashes this season that there is still plenty of pop left in that three-time AL MVP bat.
Oakland Athletics: Zack Gelof
2023 Leader: Brent Rooker with 30
A tough part of forecasting Oakland’s home run leader is making sure not to pick someone who is going to get traded if he has a big year. That rules out impending free agents like JD Davis, and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if they dealt either Rooker or Seth Brown if they’ve hit 20 home runs by the deadline. But Gelof isn’t going anywhere, after hitting 14 home runs in 69 games played as a 23-year-old rookie last season. He has struggled in the early going with 11 strikeouts and nary an RBI, but he is a big part of whatever semblance of long-term plans the A’s have.
Seattle Mariners: Julio RodrĂguez
2023 Leader: Julio RodrĂguez with 32
While tempting to go with Cal “Big Dumper” Raleigh in this spot, betting against RodrĂguez and his 60 home runs over the past two seasons seems like a bad ideaâespecially with Raleigh likely destined for fewer at-bats in 2024, now that the M’s have viable DH options. J-Rod hasn’t done anything on the homer front yet this season, but that’s nothing new. He has a career OPS of .652 in March/April and typically heats up once the temperature does the same.
Texas Rangers: Adolis GarcĂa
2023 Leader: Adolis GarcĂa with 39
With Josh Jung already on the IL with a fractured wrist and GarcĂa already very much on the board with three home runs in his first four games, it’s not exactly a tough call with the Rangers pick. That doesn’t mean it’s an open-and-shut case, though. Both Corey Seager and Marcus Semien are legitimate threats to hit 40 home runs, and rookie Wyatt Langford hit six in spring training in becoming an everyday fixture in the lineup thus far. He could become a slugging sensation in a hurry.
National League East4 of 6
Philadelphia’s Kyle SchwarberTim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Atlanta Braves: Matt Olson
2023 Leader: Matt Olson with 54
Olson led the majors with 54 home runs in 2023, and there were stretches when it looked like he might flirt with 70. When this slugging first baseman gets into one of his zones, good luck. Though, of course, there are other candidates here if Olson has a bit of an off year. Reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. had 41 last year, narrowly edging Marcell Ozuna’s 40. Austin Riley (37 in 2023) is no stranger to dingers, and Ozzie Albies (33 last year, 30 in 2021) can mash, too.
Miami Marlins: Jake Burger
2023 Leader: Jorge Soler with 36
Among returning Marlins, nobody hit 20 home runs while with this team in 2023. But Burger did hit 34 total home runs last year, tattooing 25 for the White Sox before getting traded to Miami and blossoming into a .300 hitter out of nowhere. No homers yet in 2024, but so long as he stays healthy, they’re coming. But if you’re worried about the “staying healthy” portion of the equation with Burger, Miami’s next-best candidate is probably Jazz Chisholm Jr., who makes Byron Buxton look like someone with good injury luck.
New York Mets: Francisco Alvarez
2023 Leader: Pete Alonso with 46
Alonso has led the Mets in home runs in each of the past five seasons, and it wasn’t even close in any of those years. He hit an MLB-best 192 from 2019 to 2023, with the next-closest current Met being Francisco Lindor at a distant 117. I can appreciate it’s practically blasphemy to suggest anyone else wears this crown. But is the Polar Bear going to spend the entire year in Queens? He is, quite notably, an impending free agent, and the Mets are already out to a rough start in what wasn’t expected to be a fantastic season. Granted, Alonso could hit enough home runs by the end of July to lock up the team lead, but let’s go with Alvarez, who hit 25 last year as a 21-year-old and was probably just getting warmed up.
Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Schwarber
2023 Leader: Kyle Schwarber with 47
Schwarber plays atrocious defense in left when he’s not the DH and has struck out a staggering 415 times over the past two seasons, leading the majors in that department in each of those years. But he also regularly annihilates baseballs, hitting 47 home runs in 2023 and an NL-best 46 the year before that. Bryce Harper could be the correct answer here, but it likely needs to be a situation where Harper approaches 50 as opposed to a scenario where Schwarber regresses into the low 30s.
Washington Nationals: James Wood
2023 Leader: Lane Thomas with 28
They’re going to wait another two to three weeks to call him up for service time manipulation reasons, same as what Baltimore is doing with Jackson Holliday. But do you really see anyone on this Nationals roster jumping out to a considerable lead before Wood gets that call? Maybe CJ Abrams if he gets hot, but Wood could be a 30-homer guy even with the late start to his big league campaign.
National League Central5 of 6
Cincinnati’s Elly De La CruzRich Schultz/Getty Images
Chicago Cubs: Christopher Morel
2023 Leader: Cody Bellinger and Christopher Morel tied at 26
Morel didn’t make his 2023 debut until early May, but he mashed nine home runs in his first 12 games back. And when he gets a hold of one, mercy. He had several tank jobs last season where the left fielder or center fielder didn’t even bother to move a muscle because it was such a no-doubter. If he can get into a groove or two while playing in a full season for a change, he could get to 35 with some room to spare.
Cincinnati Reds: Elly De La Cruz
2023 Leader: Spencer Steer with 23
This is the toughest pick of them all. Though no one did it last year, just about all of the Reds’ regulars could get to 25. However, none of them feel like a threat to hit 40 home runs in 2024. The safest pick would probably be Jeimer Candelario, but let’s have some fun and go with De La Cruz putting together a 30-HR/60-SB sophomore season, joining the club that Ronald Acuña Jr. just created last season.
Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich
2023 Leader: Willy Adames with 24
If this one is incorrect, hopefully it’s because Jackson Chourio goes off for 35-plus while edging out Yoshinobu Yamamoto for NL Rookie of the Year. It’s also plausible Yelich is the wrong pick because Rhys Hoskins leads the wayâthough it’s equally plausible Hoskins gets traded if he does continue to mash. (Same goes for Adames attempting to repeat as team leader.) Yelich is as good an option as any, though. Even if he doesn’t get all the way back to what he was while hitting 80 homers from 2018 to 2019, he had a bit of a bounce-back year in 2023 and has gotten out to a good start to this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Oneil Cruz
2023 Leader: Jack Suwinski with 26
A healthy Cruz is an exciting proposition for the Pirates and for baseball as a whole. He hit 17 home runs in 87 games played as a rookie in 2022 before lasting just nine games into the 2023 campaign before a season-ending leg fracture. But he is back and quickly made his presence felt with a homer on Opening Day. If he does end up leading the team this season, the Pirates could emerge as a legitimate contender.
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Gorman
2023 Leader: Nolan Gorman with 27
First of all, how wild is it that Gorman led this division with 27 home runs last season? What a shockingly low number, but one that he got to in just 119 games played in his age-23 season. The Cardinals finished 20 games below .500 and Gorman didn’t even have a full-time home, sharing second-base duties with Tommy Edman and Brendan Donovan while occasionally getting starts at third or DH. As a result, his impressive sophomore season went pretty overlooked. He should get more national attention this year, though, provided he can recover from his slow start.
National League West6 of 6
Los Angeles’ Mookie BettsAllen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker
2023 Leader: Christian Walker with 33
The D-Backs have four players back who hit at least 24 home runs last season, and they added both Eugenio Suarez and Joc Pederson to the equation. They also put Blaze Alexander on the Opening Day roster, who had a decent amount of pop in the minors over the past few seasons. Basically, they’ve got a bunch of legitimate options now, and could go from tied for 22nd in the majors in home runs in 2023 to top-five in that department in 2024. But let’s stick with Walker as the leader, as he presently has 72 homers dating back to the start of 2022.
Colorado Rockies: Nolan Jones
2023 Leader: Ryan McMahon with 23
McMahon technically led the Rockies in home runs last season, but only because Jones didn’t get called up until late May. Because while McMahon slugged .431 en route to his 23 home runs in 627 plate appearances, Jones was at .542 with 20 homers in 424 trips to the plate. If he can even remotely repeat what he did last year while starting much earlier in the season, he’ll at least give fans in Colorado something to get excited about.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Mookie Betts
2023 Leader: Mookie Betts with 39
Before the season began, the pick here would have been Shohei Ohtani. However, Betts stormed out of the gates with five early home runs, while it took Ohtani nine games (and a gambling/theft scandal that simply has to be a distraction to some extent) to get his first homer in Dodger blue. To be clear, the expectation is still that Ohtani probably gets to 40 dingers. This pick is much more about believing in Betts as a candidate to get to 45 or 50 than it is a belief that this slow start is going to result in Ohtani having a rough six months.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr.
2023 Leader: Juan Soto with 35
Pick your poison: Tatis or Manny Machado. Machado did hit more home runs (30) last season than Tatis (25) and in fewer games played, so maybe the third baseman edges out the right fielder again in 2024. But Tatis is hitting a bit better here at the outset of the season, and he did have a 42-homer season before that whole PEDs scandal that temporarily derailed his career. He sure seems to be all the way back from that, though, and could be gearing up for an MVP-caliber year.
San Francisco Giants: Jorge Soler
2023 Leader: Wilmer Flores with 23
San Francisco hasn’t had a 30-home run season since Barry Bonds in 2004, but maybe Soler can be the one to break that two-decade drought. Michael Conforto is actually the Giant out to a hot start with three home runs in his first five games, but Soler is the one who hit 36 last season with the Marlins, as well as 48 for the Royals in 2019. He’s a certified slugger, who should be able to mash even at Oracle Park after the job he did last year in Miami’s cavernous stadium. The one he hit against the Dodgers Wednesday night was an absolute bomb.
