2024 NBA Playoff Underdogs Built to Play Spoiler

2024 NBA Playoff Underdogs Built to Play Spoiler0 of 3

Pacers guard Tyrese HaliburtonPepper Robinson/NBAE via Getty Images

Somewhere between true contenders and early-round exits waiting to happen, a third type of NBA playoff team exists: the spoiler.

These teams aren’t broadly dangerous. They typically tote a set of specific imperfections that give them long title odds. But against the right team in the right circumstances, these squads can become season-wrecking disruptors.

Whether it’s a matchup advantage, a stylistic profile that the opposition hasn’t handled well in the past or even a history of punching above its weight during the regular season, these teams are set up to send their more heavily favored opponents home early.

Nobody’s saying these underdogs will make a clean sweep of their higher-seeded competition. But if you’re looking to pencil in some upsets in the first round of your NBA postseason bracket, you might want to start here.

Indiana Pacers1 of 3

Tyrese Haliburton and Giannis AntetokounmpoStacy Revere/Getty Images

We’ll get to the advantages that helped the Indiana Pacers go 4-1 against the Milwaukee Bucks in five rivalry-building games this season, but none of that matters as much to Indy’s underdog case as the health of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Shams Charania of The Athletic and Stadium reported there is “real doubt” about Antetokounmpo’s status against Indy as he deals with a calf injury. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski added that the Bucks were “preparing to be without” Giannis for the start of their series against Indiana.

Nobody needs to remind the Bucks of how vulnerable they are in the postseason without their best player in top form. Antetokounmpo’s back injury cost him two full games and most of a third as Milwaukee exited in the first round against the Miami Heat last year.

The Pacers don’t bring the same experience level or inspire the same fear as the Heat. But if Giannis is unavailable or limited, the Bucks are absolutely susceptible to another upset.

Indiana’s uptempo attack is purpose-built to exploit the Bucks’ shaky transition defense. Though the Pacers weren’t as dominant on the break after Tyrese Haliburton’s hamstring injury, and though the Bucks did a better job getting back on D as the season progressed, this is still a case of one team’s clear strength (seventh in points added per 100 transition plays) lining up precisely with another’s weakness (23rd in opponent transition frequency).

One might point out that all four of the Pacers’ wins against Milwaukee came during the Adrian Griffin era. That shouldn’t console Bucks fans who know the team’s record under Doc Rivers (17-19) was far worse than it was under the man whom he replaced (30-13).

Throw in Haliburton’s ability to capitalize on Brook Lopez in drop coverage, Andrew Nembhard’s top-flight on-ball defense waiting for Damian Lillard and the fact that Indy’s plus-6.3 net rating after the All-Star break was better than Milwaukee’s plus-2.5, and it might not even be right to call the Pacers an underdog in the first place.

Philadelphia 76ers2 of 3

Jalen Brunson and Joel EmbiidDavid Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

The New York Knicks ended the season with the East’s No. 2 seed, but the Philadelphia 76ers were comfortably ahead of them in the standings until Joel Embiid went down with a knee injury in late January.

With the reigning MVP back, it seems reasonable to posit that the Sixers, who downed the typically indomitable Miami Heat to secure the No. 7 spot, are a better team than the Knicks. That argument comes with the enormous caveat of Embiid’s health and fitness, but it’s not like the Knicks are at full strength either.

Julius Randle is out for the season, Mitchell Robinson has been in iffy form since returning from an ankle injury, and OG Anunoby’s performance following elbow surgery likely won’t match the incredible one he put on in his first few games with the Knicks.

Tom Thibodeau’s teams don’t fold, but they do tend to lose key advantages in the playoffs when opponents match the effort and preparation that Thibs demands across the 82-game regular season. Relentless focus on winning each individual game pays off in November if the opponent isn’t similarly obsessed with short-term success. But that edge disappears when both teams adopt a do-or-die mindset.

If the Sixers’ guards can’t contain Jalen Brunson, he could live in the paint and force Embiid to be involved in enough defensive actions to wear the big man out. That presumes Brunson and the rest of New York’s rotation players didn’t grind themselves into dust with ridiculous amounts of playing time down the stretch of the regular season, though.

What seems more likely is that Sixers head coach Nick Nurse will capitalize on a Knicks team that doesn’t have much playmaking diversity. Philly enters this series with an obvious weakness to exploit. If it forces the ball out of Brunson’s hands consistently, it may be difficult for the Knicks to score consistently.

And if Embiid can operate at something around 75 percent, that should be enough to engineer an exit for a tough but injury-hit and fatigued Knicks team.

Minnesota Timberwolves3 of 3

Naz Reid and Devin BookerDavid Berding/Getty Images

Devin Booker has won five playoff series, and Bradley Beal’s career total is at three. Those match the figures posted by Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, respectively, but nobody on the Minnesota Timberwolves comes anywhere close to Kevin Durant’s 22 postseason series wins.

That gulf in experience, along with a general mistrust in the Minnesota Timberwolves’ offense and the potential for the Suns’ mid-range maestros to feast on the league’s drop-favoring No. 1 defense, are all reasons why the lower-seeded Suns are actually the betting favorites here. That’s right: The higher-seeded team is the underdog in this situation.

Phoenix went 3-0 against Minnesota during the regular season, but the Wolves won seven more games and posted a net rating 3.1 points per 100 possessions higher than the Suns. So it shouldn’t be all that hard to make the “long-shot” case for Minnesota.

Though Minnesota’s defensive style invites the shots Booker, Durant and Beal prefer, it’s difficult to think of a team with better personnel to throw at Phoenix’s three stars. Anthony Edwards is among the league’s best point-of-attack stoppers when fully engaged, and he’ll bring maximum intensity to the postseason. Jaden McDaniels is one of the few humans on earth with the length and foot speed to bother Durant, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker is up for the challenge of checking Booker or Beal.

Behind them, Rudy Gobert looms. Maybe his minus-68 plus/minus in 86 minutes against the Suns this year was an aberration?

Offensive rebounding isn’t a big part of either team’s profile, but the Wolves certainly have the size to create an advantage on the boards. If the Suns can’t rebound or defend well enough to get away with playing KD at center for significant stretches, it’ll favor the Wolves.

Lastly, Phoenix faded in fourth quarters all season. Some combination of fatigue and predictable offense sapped the Suns of their strength in the final 12 minutes, contributing to a league-worst minus-11.6 fourth-quarter net rating.

With big-minute playing-time demands on the table and Minnesota’s defense capable of putting the clamps on anyone, it’s possible the Suns’ ugly late-game trend will persist. If that happens, this could actually be a short series in which the Wolves have little difficulty.

Phoenix is prone to some of the ugliest stretches of disjointed basketball you’d ever want to see. It shouldn’t be favored over a 56-win Wolves team with a defense this dominant.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale.