Preview: Mirra Andreeva vs. Aryna Sabalenka -to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Wednesday’s Madrid Open quarter-final between Mirra Andreeva and Aryna Sabalenka, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

For the second year running, Mirra Andreeva and Aryna Sabalenka will clash racquets in the Madrid Open, this time with a semi-final place at stake.

The Russian teenager celebrated her 17th birthday with victory over Jasmine Paolini to reach the quarter-finals, while the defending champion triumphed against Danielle Collins in another three-setter.

Match preview
© Reuters

Gifting herself the best kind of 17th birthday present she could have hoped for, the up-and-coming Andreeva now has a first WTA 1000 quarter-final pencilled into her diary thanks to her elimination of 12th seed Paolini in the last 16.

The 2007-born protege had already sent Taylor Townsend, Linda Noskova and reigning Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova packing before squaring up to her Italian foe, whom she bested 7-6[2] 6-4 with one hour and 40 minutes on the clock to break new ground in Masters tournaments.

Having already come from a set down to sink Townsend and Noskova in her opening two matches, Andreeva exhibited her powers of recovery yet again in her battle with Paolini, fighting back from a 5-2 deficit in a first set where the pair managed just one hold between them in the opening six games.

It was Paolini’s turn to threaten an almighty comeback in the second set, where Andreeva stormed into a 4-0 lead before the 12th seed clawed her way back to 5-4, but the 17-year-old needed just one match point to reach the last eight of a Masters competition for the first time in her embryonic career.

Only a 16-year-old Coco Gauff at the 2021 Dubai Tennis Championships reached a WTA 1000 quarter-final at a younger age than Andreeva, who already has two top-15 wins to her name at the current Madrid Open, but making lightning strike for a third time will be a tall order indeed.

Sabalenka’s defence of her Spanish clay crown has not been an easy ride by any stretch, though, as she was taken to three sets by both Magda Linette and Robin Montgomery before squaring up to a red-hot Danielle Collins, riding the crest of the wave of a 15-match winning sequence.

The American, whose last year on the WTA Tour is proving to be her finest, worked her brilliant backhand returns to devastating effect as she took the first set against Sabalenka, but the Belarusian cleaned up her act from the second set onwards and found a way to prevail 4-6 6-4 6-3 in just under two and a half hours.

While Collins made the most of Sabalenka’s poor first-serve percentage in the opening set, the 2021 and 2023 champion quickly rectified such mistakes and reeled off several winners to end the 13th seed’s exceptional victorious streak and reach her first Masters quarter-final of the season.

It has been win or bust for Sabalenka as far as Madrid is concerned so far, as alongside her two triumphs in the tournament, she lost in the first round in the 2018, 2019 and 2022 editions and also came up short in her most recent WTA 1000 last-eight clash, losing to Elena Rybakina in Beijing last year.

A shot at revenge against the former Wimbledon champion – who meets Kazakhstani compatriot Yulia Putintseva in her quarter-final battle – could be on the cards for Sabalenka should she sink the fledgling Andreeva, who has already felt the full force of the second seed’s Madrid mastery.

Tournament so far
Mirra Andreeva:

First round: vs. Taylor Townsend 4-6 6-1 7-5
Second round: vs. Linda Noskova 4-6 6-3 6-3
Third round: vs. Marketa Vondrousova 7-5 6-1
Round of 16: vs. Jasmine Paolini 7-6[2] 6-4

Aryna Sabalenka:

Second round: vs. Magda Linette 6-4 3-6 6-3
Third round: vs. Robin Montgomery 6-1 6-7[5] 6-4
Round of 16: vs. Danielle Collins 4-6 6-4 6-3

Head To Head
Madrid Open (2023) – Last 16: Sabalenka wins 6-3 6-1

Wednesday’s contest will be a repeat of Andreeva and Sabalenka’s first and only WTA Tour meeting to date, which came in the last 16 of the 2023 Madrid Open, a match in which the second seed strolled to a 6-3 6-1 victory.

Sabalenka needed just 72 minutes to defeat her Russian foe on that occasion, although Andreeva still managed to save eight of the 13 break points she faced en route to defeat and even broke the reigning champion in her opening service game.

Since their inaugural meeting in a competitive setting, Andreeva and Sabalenka reunited in December’s World Tennis League exhibition match, where the world number two – representing Team Kites – won the one-set contest 6-2 over her Team Eagles opponent.

We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets
Still waiting for her first straight-sets success of the tournament, Sabalenka would do well to break that duck against a fired-up Andreeva, who is already well-versed in sending Grand Slam champions packing on the clay.

The 17-year-old would have also enjoyed several more hours of recuperation time from her last-16 exploits, but as long as Sabalenka’s aggressive and venomous groundstrokes find the mark, she should continue her quest for a third Madrid crown.

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