Preview: Iga Swiatek vs. Madison Keys -to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Thursday’s Madrid Open semi-final between Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Continuing their trend of meeting exclusively in Masters events, Iga Swiatek and Madison Keys square off in Thursday’s Madrid Open women’s singles semi-final.

Both players produced terrific turnarounds to book their spots in the final four, as the world number one fought back against Beatriz Haddad Maia, while her American foe sensationally sent Ons Jabeur packing.

Match preview
© Reuters

En route to a 16th WTA 1000 quarter-final, Swiatek had dropped a mere eight games in her first three Madrid ties with Wang Xiyu, Sorana Cirstea and Sara Sorribes Tormo, but she was forced to harness her powers of recovery against Brazil’s Haddad Maia, who miraculously won the first set of their quarter-final despite falling 1-4 down.

However, Haddad Maia would only delay the inevitable with her small triumph over Swiatek, who responded with a second-set bagel and earned three breaks of serve in the third to record a 4-6 6-0 6-2 victory in two hours and 24 minutes.

In her bid to explode out of the blocks against Haddad Maia, the world number one conceded that she committed far too many mistakes, but reverting to the basics was the key to punching her ticket to her fourth Masters semi-final of the year, and just her second in Madrid.

Owing to her run to the final last year, where she fell to Aryna Sabalenka’s superiority, Swiatek boasts a 100% record from Madrid semi-finals thus far and has now triumphed in a remarkable 25 of 29 Masters matches on clay courts, further enhancing her credentials as the French Open favourite.

Before the Pole can dream of a Roland Garros three-peat, reaching an 11th WTA 1000 semi-final will be the overriding goal on Thursday, although four of her previous seven Masters matches at this stage have seen Swiatek bow out.

Keys will no doubt take any slice of encouragement she can against the 2022 and 2023 French Open champion, but the 29-year-old American is already well-versed in shocking the big names on the clay, besting US Open holder Coco Gauff to set up a quarter-final battle with Ons Jabeur.

As praiseworthy as Swiatek’s comeback was against Haddad Maia, her turnaround paled into insignificance when compared to Keys’s astounding recovery against Jabeur, who would seemingly cruise into the last four as she consigned the American to a first-set bagel and went a break up early in the second.

However, Keys bounced back from losing the first eight games to prevail 0-6 7-5 6-1 in one hour and 33 minutes, even serving Jabeur a slight dose of her own medicine by winning each of the first five games of the deciding set, thereby ending the Tunisian’s nine-match winning sequence at the tournament.

Joining Serena Williams and Venus Williams in an esteemed group, Keys is now just the third American woman to reach the semi-finals at both the Madrid and Italian Opens and now gears up for her first Masters semi since the 2022 Cincinnati Open, where Petra Kvitova proved too strong for her.

Still boasting just the one WTA 1000 title at the 2019 Cincinnati tournament, the world number 20 has not reached another Masters singles showpiece since, but a battle for glory against Mirra Andreeva, Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina or Yulia Putintseva will be her reward should she defy the odds yet again.

Tournament so far
Iga Swiatek:

Second round: vs. Wang Xiyu 6-1 6-4
Third round: vs. Sorana Cirstea 6-1 6-1
Round of 16: vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo 6-1 6-0
Quarter-final: vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia 4-6 6-0 6-2

Madison Keys:

Second round: vs. Irina-Camelia Begu 7-6[3] 7-6[6]
Third round: vs. Liudmila Samsonova 6-2 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Coco Gauff 7-6[4] 4-6 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Ons Jabeur 0-6 7-5 6-1

Head To Head
Cincinnati Open (2022) – Last 16: Keys wins 6-3 6-4
Indian Wells Masters (2022) – Quarter-finals: Swiatek wins 6-1 6-0
Italian Open (2022) – Second round: Swiatek wins 7-5 6-1

Each of Swiatek and Keys’s previous three meetings have coincidentally come at WTA 1000 level, and the world number one holds the slight edge over her more experienced foe with two triumphs to her name, although the American came out on top in the latest showdown.

Indeed, Keys prevailed in straight sets during the last 16 of the Cincinnati Open before losing to Kvitova in the final, prior to which Swiatek dropped just one game in an Indian Wells quarter-final success, subjecting the world number 20 to her most recent bagel before the Jabeur contest.

Swiatek also triumphed in the first and only meeting between the duo on the clay to date, earning a straight-sets success in the second round of the 2022 Italian Open, which she would go on to win.

We say: Swiatek to win in three sets
With stinging serves and powerful groundstrokes that can rival even some of the top male players, Keys will prove a stern examination for Swiatek, and her tall frame has not inhibited her on the clay thus far.

However, coming up against one of the WTA’s current aficionados on the surface, the American’s Madrid run should come to an end against the in-form Swiatek, but it should not be a straightforward path to the final for the world number one.

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