Kentucky Derby 2024: Odds, Dark-Horse Contenders and Predictions After Post Draw

Jake RillMay 1, 2024Kentucky Derby 2024: Odds, Dark-Horse Contenders and Predictions After Post Draw0 of 3

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The 2024 Kentucky Derby field underwent its first change on Tuesday. Encino, who had been slated to start from the No. 9 post, was scratched. That means Epic Ride, previously an alternate, will enter the race at No. 21.

The news, however, didn’t impact the betting lines for the 150th running of the Derby, which is set for Saturday at 6:57 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs in Louisville. Fierceness (5-2) remains the favorite to win, with Sierra Leone (3-1) and Catching Freedom (8-1) among the other expected top competitors.

Will the favorites battle for the win? Could sleepers emerge to finish in the money? How will this year’s edition of the race unfold?

Here are the full odds for the event, followed by a look at some dark horses to watch and predictions for the 2024 Derby.

Odds, Post Positions1 of 3

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1. Dornoch (20-1)

2. Sierra Leone (3-1)

3. Mystik Dan (20-1)

4. Catching Freedom (8-1)

5. Catalytic (30-1)

6. Just Steel (20-1)

7. Honor Marie (20-1)

8. Just A Touch (10-1)

9. (Originally belonged to Encino, who was scratched)

10. T O Password (30-1)

11. Forever Young (10-1)

12. Track Phantom (20-1)

13. West Saratoga (50-1)

14. Endlessly (30-1)

15. Domestic Product (30-1)

16. Grand Mo the First (50-1)

17. Fierceness (5-2)

18. Stronghold (20-1)

19. Resilience (20-1)

20. Society Man (50-1)

21. Epic Man (50-1)

Dark Horses to Watch2 of 3

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Honor Marie (20-1)

The colt is trained by D. Whitworth Beckman, who will be making his Kentucky Derby debut. However, the Louisville native was previously an assistant to longtime trainers Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, so he has history in horse racing.

Honor Marie placed second in the Louisiana Derby in March, finishing behind only fellow Kentucky Derby competitor Catching Freedom. Honor Marie owns two wins and two second-place finishes in five career races.

Mystik Dan (20-1)

The winner of two previous races (including the Southwest Stakes in February), Mystik Dan will look to get longtime trainer Kenneth McPeek his first Kentucky Derby win. The colt is coming off a third-place showing at the Arkansas Derby in March.

It might be a surprise if Mystik Dan pulls off a Derby upset victory, but he could have a strong showing. He might get off to a strong start out of the No. 3 post.

Resilience (20-1)

Resilience owns two wins in his six career races, and those victories have both come within his past three events. The colt is coming off a win at the Wood Memorial Stakes in April.

Trainer William Mott is a former Kentucky Derby champion, having won the race with Country House in 2019. Perhaps Resilience pulls off an upset and gets Mott to the winner’s circle at Churchill Downs for a second time.

Predictions3 of 3

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Fierceness and Sierra Leone are both strong horses that have great chances of winning the Kentucky Derby. However, the prediction here is that Catching Freedom will be the colt that crosses the finish line at Churchill Downs first on Saturday.

Catching Freedom is trained by Brad Cox, who won the Kentucky Derby with Mandaloun in 2021. Not only that, but the colt will be ridden by jockey Flavien Prat, who previously rode Country House to victory in 2019.

In March, Catching Freedom won the Louisiana Derby, notching his third victory in five races.

Even if Fierceness and Sierra Leone don’t win the Kentucky Derby, they should still be among the top horses in the field. And at least one of the two should finish in the money.

Expect Sierra Leone to make things interesting late in the race. He could put the pressure on Catching Freedom. However, it won’t quite be enough, as Catching Freedom will pull away down the final stretch and secure the victory.

As for sleepers, Honor Marie will surprise some by finishing in the money. That will bump Fierceness to fourth.

However things unfold, it should be an exciting race. But it will be Catching Freedom heading to the winner’s circle.

Predictions: 1. Catching Freedom; 2. Sierra Leone; 3. Honor Marie; 4. Fierceness