Canelo Álvarez vs. Jaime Munguia: Fight Odds, Live Stream, Predictions

Canelo Alvarez and Jaime MunguiaKatelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

Cinco de Mayo weekend has played host to several major fights over the years. This year, the Holiday will bring the gift of a Canelo Álvarez fight as he takes on fellow Mexican Jaime Munguia at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The 33-year-old will look to defend his undisputed super middleweight title against Munguia.

The 27-year-old wasn’t the biggest matchup that Álvarez could have taken, but he’s an intriguing opponent nonetheless. Donning a record of 43-0 with 34 knockouts, he’ll look to take the torch from Álvarez and become an instant star.

It’s a classic battle of legend vs. up-and-comer and a matchup that is sure to have the attention of the boxing world.

Here’s a look at all the info you need to catch the bout along with a preview and prediction for the fight.

Fight Odds, Info

When: Saturday, May 4 at 8 p.m. ET (main event ringwalks at approximately 11 p.m. ET)

Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

Odds: Álvarez -525 (wager $525 to win $100); Munguia +380 (wager $100 to win $380)

Preview

Álvarez is a fairly strong favorite, but it’s not a foregone conclusion he’s going to get his hand raised.

Canelo has proven he can still win as he moves to his mid-30s. He has reeled off unanimous decision wins over Gennady Golovkin, John Ryder and Jermell Charlo since losing to Dmitry Bivol in May 2022.

Those weren’t the vintage performances that we’ve seen from Canelo before, though. He looked much more human in those bouts and didn’t have the same finishing instinct that has earned him knockouts over better competition in the past.

Still, Canelo at less than his best is better than most boxers on their best night. We’ll see if that still rings true against Munguia. Álvarez is tough to beat when he’s bigger and stronger than his opponent.

Given that Munguia has only recently moved up to super middleweight that will probably be the case on Saturday night.

Regardless, he’s a high-volume puncher who is promising a fun fight.

“The respect between us is mutual,” Munguia said, per Adam Hill of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “We want to be a source of pride not just for Mexicans in Mexico, but those all around the world who are expecting a great fight. It’s going to be a great Mexican party, and I promise a great fight that fans are going to love.”

If there’s a path to victory for the underdog, it probably lies in his willingness to push the pace and bring the fight to the favorite.

Most of Álvarez’s comments leading into this fight have been about potential future fights with David Benavidez or his war of words with former promoter Oscar De La Hoya.

If Canelo isn’t completely focused on this fight and Munguia can avoid being star-struck in the early rounds, things could get interesting.

Prediction

Just because things could get interesting doesn’t mean this is headed for an upset.

The early rounds could be more competitive than the odds would indicate. Munguia has the physical tools to have some success if he’s willing to be the aggressor and bring the fight to Canelo.

That’s not a gameplan that will ultimately lead to victory, though. Álvarez isn’t the same combination punching dynamo he once was, but he’s still capable of putting together a tactical fight where his skill shines through.

That should be the case. here. Early success for Munguia could have him getting a little more confident than he should be. Canelo’s counterpunching will start to show itself after the early rounds and he should break Munguia down to the point of earning his first TKO since 2021.

Prediction: Álvarez via ninth-round TKO

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