NASCAR at Darlington odds, predictions: Advanced model makes surprising 2024 Goodyear 400 picks, leaderboard
Martin Truex Jr. enters Sunday’s 2024 NASCAR at Darlington race with the best average finish (8.9) in the Cup Series this season. However, what Truex doesn’t have is a victory, a drought he hopes comes to an end at the 2024 Goodyear 400, which begins at 3 p.m. ET from Darlington Raceway. It’s the last Cup Series race before the All-Star break and presents an opportunity for Truex to notch a checkered flag. Entering the Goodyear 400 2024, he’s one of just three active drivers with multiple NASCAR at Darlington victories, last winning in 2021.
Kyle Larson is atop the Cup Series standings and the 17-4 favorite in the latest 2024 Goodyear 400 odds, just ahead of Denny Hamlin (18-4). Truex is third in the NASCAR at Darlington 2024 odds at 13-2, while William Byron, who has three victories this season, is 8-1. Before making any 2024 NASCAR at Darlington predictions, be sure to see the latest 2024 Goodyear 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
McClure’s model was red-hot in 2023, nailing Martin Truex Jr.’s Clash win (20-1) as well as his win in New Hampshire (11-2), Joey Logano’s Duel win (8-1), Kyle Busch’s Fontana victory (10-1), Denny Hamlin’s triumph in Kansas (6-1) and Kyle Larson’s wins at Martinsville (6-1) and the NASCAR All-Star Race (13-2). The model correctly predicted winners in two of the playoff races as well, with Ryan Blaney scoring a 12-1 payout at Talladega and Larson winning at 9-2 in Las Vegas.Â
Then it called its first winner of the 2024 season with Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout and predicted Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Goodyear 400 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Darlington leaderboard.
Top 2024 Goodyear 400 predictionsFor the 2024 Goodyear 400, the model is high on Ryan Blaney, even though he’s a +2800 longshot in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Darlington odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The reigning Cup Series champion has four top-fives this season compared to just three such finishes at this point last season. That includes a third place at Las Vegas, a comparable intermediate track to Darlington. Just five drivers have more championship points than Blaney in 2024 as he’s poised to make a push to another title.
Blaney notched top-10 finishes in both Darlington races last year, and his 13.0 average finish over the last six races at the track is seventh-best in the sport. He’s fared well at intermediate tracks as a whole, with three top-six finishes over his last five starts, posting an 11.2 average finish over this span. His team, Penske, won this race two years ago with Joey Logano and has had at least one driver finish in the top 10 in the last eight Darlington races. Even with that, there are 13 drivers with shorter 2024 Goodyear 400 odds than Blaney, so he’s a steal at his current odds.
Another massive shocker: Martin Truex Jr., who is second in the standings and listed as one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 Darlington NASCAR starting lineup. The 44-year-old hasn’t been able to make his way to victory lane over the first 12 races of the season. He’s failed to lead a lap in three of his last five races after leading at least one lap in six consecutive races after Daytona.
Truex is a two-time winner at Darlington, but only has four top-five finishes in 23 career starts on the egg-shaped oval and has had tough luck there since the switch to the Next-Gen Car. Truex has finished 18th or worse in all four of his starts at Darlington since 2022, with mechanical failures sending him to the back of the pack in three of those races despite the fact that he led at least 28 laps in each. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Darlington picksThe model is also targeting three other drivers with 2024 NASCAR at Darlington odds longer than +1500 to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2024 Goodyear 400, and which longshots are a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Darlington odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2024 NASCAR at Darlington leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.
2024 Goodyear 400 odds, drivers, lineupSee full NASCAR at Darlington picks at SportsLine
Kyle Larson +425
Denny Hamlin +450
Martin Truex Jr. +650
William Byron +800
Tyler Reddick +800
Christopher Bell +900
Ross Chastain +1500
Brad Keselowski +1600
Chase Elliott +1600
Kyle Busch +1600
Chris Buescher +2000
Ty Gibbs +2200
Joey Logano +2500
Ryan Blaney +2800
Bubba Wallace +3000
Alex Bowman +3500
Erik Jones +4000
Noah Gragson +5000
Chase Briscoe +10000
Josh Berry +10000
Daniel Suarez +12500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +15000
Michael McDowell +25000
Austin Dillon +30000
Carson Hocevar +30000
Austin Cindric +30000
John Hunter Nemechek +35000
Ryan Preece +50000
Todd Gilliland +50000
Corey Lajoie +75000
Justin Haley +100000
Harrison Burton +100000
Zane Smith +100000
Daniel Hemric +150000
Derek Kraus +500000
Kaz Grala +500000
