Mavericks vs. Timberwolves picks, odds, best bets for Game 3: Why Luka Doncic, Dereck Lively will keep rolling

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The 2024 NBA postseason is well underway, and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota TimberwolvesDallas has won the first two games on the road, and they’ve done so despite several disadvantages that don’t seem especially unsustainable. In Game 1, they made one-third as many 3-pointers as Minnesota (18-to-6). They won Game 2 despite drawing 10 fewer free-throw attempts, whereas in the regular season, these teams were more or less even on that front. The simplest explanation for what we’ve thus far seen is that Minnesota, the No. 1 defense in the NBA, just doesn’t have a solution for Luka Doncic’s pick-and-roll game. Drop and he kills you in mid-range. Switch, as Rudy Gobert did on Game 2’s final possession, and he beats you one-on-one. Blitz and Dereck Lively beats the 4-on-3. Meanwhile, Derrick Jones Jr. and an array of doubles have stifled Anthony Edwards in ways that seem more reliable for a 22-year-old rising star in his first playoff run. The Mavericks just seem to have figured this series out. The Pick: Mavericks -3

That said, I expect Game 3 to be a bit more offensively-inclined because Minnesota’s stars still haven’t shown up. Edwards is shooting 13-of-33 in the series. Karl-Anthony Towns is 10-of-36. Dallas can score reliably. Minnesota hasn’t gotten much out of its two best players so far, and yet the first two games of this series have both gone over. If Edwards or Towns bounce back, there should be more than enough scoring in Game 3. The Pick: Over 208.5

Dereck Lively is 10-of-10 from the floor in the Western Conference Finals. Dallas is a staggering +105 in their last seven games with Lively on the floor and -78 with him off of it. Of all the defenses Minnesota tried against Doncic, blitzing was the only one that showed much promise (and not much of it, to be honest). If the Timberwolves come out and blitz more in Game 3, that’s going to create more 4-on-3’s for Lively. That should mean more easy points. The Pick: Lively Over 8.5 Points