Predicting MLB Free-Agent Contracts For Top Names of the 2024-25 Class
Predicting MLB Free-Agent Contracts for Top Names of the 2024-25 Class0 of 12
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Believe it or not, the 2024 MLB season has advanced so far that the halfway mark is only two weeks away.
But rather than ask how the heck this happened, let’s look ahead instead. As in, way ahead to the 2024-25 free-agent market and what riches it could rain on the top players available.
This is never a straightforward exercise, but it’s even more complicated now.
Big spending in free agency made a huge comeback during the 2022-23 offseason, but then only the Los Angeles Dodgers really went big this past winter. You may recall how costly that was to some marquee players, namely Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman. They were projected to command $760 million. They got $221 million.
All the same, the idea here is to treat last winter as more of an anomaly than as a sign of things to come. This round of predictions is on the bullish side, albeit while still being based on relevant contracts from the recent past.
Please note only sure-thing free agents were included here. That means not players with opt-outs they might want to avoid exercising, such as Bellinger, Snell and Gerrit Cole.
We have 20 players to discuss, starting with five hitters and five pitchers who didn’t quite make the cut for the top 10.
Honorable Mentions: Hitters1 of 12
Paul GoldschmidtBrandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images
1B Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 36
2024 Stats: 64 G, 282 PA, 7 HR, 3 SB, .225 AVG, .300 OBP, .344 SLG
Goldschmidt was the National League MVP in 2022, but going from a .981 OPS that year to a .644 OPS this year sure looks like a decline. He would be lucky to match Anthony Rizzo’s two-year, $40 million deal from 2022, so let’s use Justin Turner’s latest deal as a model.
Prediction: 1 year, $15 million
LF Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 71 G, 284 PA, 10 HR, 4 SB, .324 AVG, .424 OBP, .500 SLG
Does anyone still remember Gary Matthews Jr.’s 2006 season? Profar’s breakout this year has the same fluky energy, but it’s hardly out of the question that he’ll get a multi-year deal from it. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. money seems fair.
Prediction: 3 years, $42 million
2B Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
Age: 27
2024 Stats: 70 G, 287 PA, 6 HR, 4 SB, .231 AVG, .308 OBP, .345 SLG
After back-to-back solid seasons in 2022 and 2023, Torres’ walk year is going…not great. His chances for a multi-year deal have almost certainly plummeted accordingly. He may have to do a one-year pillow deal, and probably not quite for Cody Bellinger money.
Prediction: 1 year, $12 million
LF Alex Verdugo, New York Yankees
Age: 28
2024 Stats: 67 G, 276 PA, 8 HR, 1 SB, .263 AVG, .319 OBP, .425 SLG
If Andrew Benintendi can get five years, $75 million as a power-light, yet contact- and defense-heavy outfielder, maybe Verdugo can, too. But the Benintendi deal also feels like an anomaly, so let’s once again default to the Gurriel deal.
Prediction: 3 years, $42 million
1B Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 33
2024 Stats: 68 G, 291 PA, 13 HR, 2 SB, .255 AVG, .340 OBP, .458 SLG
Walker is a sneaky-good player, having posted back-to-back 30-homer seasons and three times as many Outs Above Average as the next-best first baseman since 2022. He’s nonetheless an aging first baseman, so the Rizzo model is his best possible outcome.
Prediction: 2 years, $36 million
Honorable Mentions: Pitchers2 of 12
Clay HolmesJim McIsaac/Getty Images
RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 2 GS, 12.0 IP, 10 H (0 HR), 20 K, 1 BB, 0.00 ERA
Bieber looked determined to have a big walk year at the outset of 2024, but then Tommy John surgery happened. His best hope now is to sign a Brandon Woodruff deal that would bind him to a team for 2025 and 2026.
Prediction: 2 years, $17.5 million
RHP Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 7 GS, 33.0 IP, 40 H (8 HR), 29 K, 9 BB, 4.64 ERA
Buehler has two Tommy John surgeries on his record, and his comeback from the second has thus far been unspectacular. Rather than in those of Jameson Taillon, one wonders if he might have to follow in Lucas Giolito’s footsteps with his next contract.
Prediction: 1 year, $18 million
LHP Yusei Kikuchi, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 32
2024 Stats: 14 GS, 77.1 IP, 76 H (7 HR), 76 K, 19 BB, 3.26 ERA
Kikuchi has rebounded nicely from a rough first season in Toronto in 2022, posting a 3.67 ERA since the start of last year. He turns 33 on June 17, so Tyler Anderson’s contract could be a model for what he can expect in his next dance with free agency.
Prediction: 3 years, $33 million
RHP Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 30 G, 29.1 IP, 28 H (0 HR), 29 K, 8 BB, 1.23 ERA
Holmes has probably been a little too good in 2024, but his 2.42 ERA for the last three seasons is a nice selling point. It’s doubtful he has a shot at really big reliever money, à la Josh Hader and Edwin Díaz, but Robert Stephenson money should be doable.
Prediction: 3 years, $36 million
RHP Max Scherzer, Texas Rangers
Age: 39
Has not pitched in 2024
Scherzer will soon return from surgery on his lower back, at which point he’ll get to work adding to his Hall of Fame career. He’ll only pitch half the year and will turn 40 on July 27, so let’s just take his current salary and cut it in half for a one-year deal.
Prediction: 1 year, $21 million
10. RF Anthony Santander, Baltimore Orioles3 of 12
Anthony SantanderG Fiume/Getty Images
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 63 G, 264 PA, 14 HR, 0 SB, .225 AVG, .304 OBP, .466 SLG
There are great hitters, there are good hitters and then there are Anthony Santanders.
He’s one of those guys who’s more in between good and great than one might realize. Out of every hitter who’s come through MLB over the last four seasons, he’s one of only 14 with at least a 120 OPS+ and 75 home runs.
Santander does seem to have a ceiling as a 30-homer, high-.700s-OPS sort of hitter, though. He’s also not much of a defender, as his minus-12 Outs Above Average since 2017 can attest.
These things figure to work against him in free agency, and there’s also the inconvenience of having to share the market with Teoscar Hernández. The two have similar profiles, but the Dodgers star is in the process of reminding everyone how high his upside goes.
Even still, a Mitch Haniger contract sounds fair for Santander. And since he’s two seasonal ages younger than Haniger was when he signed his deal, let’s tack on another year.
Prediction: 4 years, $60 million
9. SS Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres4 of 12
Ha-Seong KimOrlando Ramirez/Getty Images
Age: 28
2024 Stats: 71 G, 284 PA, 9 HR, 14 SB, .222 AVG, .336 OBP, .393 SLG
Ha-Seong Kim has an $8 million mutual option for 2025, but why would he think of exercising his half of it?
He has as much rWAR as a hitter than Shohei Ohtani over the last three seasons, which is a statement meant to both blatantly drum up outrage and to give Kim proper credit.
He’s an excellent defender who’s posted 21 Outs Above Average over the last four seasons. Boosts to his OPS+ have come annually in that span, and this year may eventually see him go 20-20 for home runs and stolen bases.
MLB @MLBBack-to-back days with a homer for Ha-Seong Kim! pic.twitter.com/fAWLiCy1xT
Still, Kim’s general profile is that of a glove-first middle infielder with effective, but not quite outstanding offensive skills. A good player, no doubt, but not the easiest to find contract comps for.
Rather than a free-agent deal, Andrés Giménez’s extension with the Cleveland Guardians may be the most appropriate model. It bought out three of his free-agent years for $72 million, which sounds just about right for Kim’s next deal.
Prediction: 4 years, $68 million
8. RHP Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers5 of 12
Jack FlahertyMaddie Meyer/Getty Images
Age: 28
2024 Stats: 12 GS, 72.2 IP, 60 H (9 HR), 94 K, 10 BB, 3.22 ERA
Jack Flaherty looked like he would be an ace for a long time after he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting in 2019, but then came four injury-marred and forgettable years.
What he’s doing now, though, smacks of the good old days.
Flaherty’s reemergence is somewhat reminiscent of Kevin Gausman’s, but not so much so that anyone can confidently predict a nine-figure deal. Gausman was a top-10 pitcher in the season that preceded him scoring five years, $115 million from the Blue Jays.
Flaherty may be more likely to end up in the same contract tier as Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and Eduardo Rodriguez, which is to say around four years and less than $100 million.
Prediction: 4 years, $72 million
7. LF/RF Teoscar Hernández, Los Angeles Dodgers6 of 12
Teoscar HernándezJim McIsaac/Getty Images
Age: 31
2024 Stats: 69 G, 291 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .262 AVG, .331 OBP, .517 SLG
Teoscar Hernández had the misfortune of having to play his walk year in 2023 with the Seattle Mariners, whose home park clearly didn’t agree with him:
Home: .643 OPS, 12 HRAway: .830 OPS, 14 HRIt’s not surprising that he chose to bet on himself in the form of a one-year deal with the Dodgers, much less that this bet is going very, very well.
FOX Sports: MLB @MLBONFOXGRAND SLAM TEOSCAR HERNANDEZ!
Teoscar Hernandez makes it an 8-2 lead for the @Dodgers! pic.twitter.com/ipoLFGdmdy
The results are nice and shiny, and they’re backed up by some pretty good peripherals. To name just one, he has the second-fastest bat among L.A. hitters after only Shohei Ohtani.
The minus-28 Outs Above Average on Hernández’s record spoil the mood a bit, but he can still look to Nick Castellanos’ five-year, $100 million contract from a couple winters ago as his target. And that works, so long as you subtract a year on account of his age.
In other words, this should be the winter Hernández actually gets the contract MLB Trade Rumors projected him for last winter.
Prediction: 4 years, $80 million
6. SS Willy Adames, Milwaukee Brewers7 of 12
Willy AdamesJohn Fisher/Getty Images
Age: 28
2024 Stats: 68 G, 296 PA, 11 HR, 10 SB, .246 AVG, .331 OBP, .438 SLG
Willy Adames had a rough one at the plate in 2023, hitting only .217 and posting a .717 OPS. Per OPS+, he was eight percent worse than the average hitter.
That he nonetheless salvaged 3.0 rWAR goes to show how valuable good defense is at shortstop. And his is good indeed, as he’s fifth in Defensive Runs Saved and second in Outs Above Average among shortstops for the last three years.
Meanwhile, Adames’ bat is back online in 2024. Everything is up, and he even has a shot at his first 20-20 season. Even 25-25 or 30-30 could be doable, for that matter.
As both were likewise coming off their age-28 seasons, the six-year, $140 million pact that Javier Báez and Trevor Story both got three winters ago would seem to be an obvious benchmark for Adames.
Those deals have aged poorly, though, and one can’t ignore how Adames comes with similar volatility. That could cost him, but probably not so much that he lands below nine figures.
Prediction: 6 years, $120 million
5. LHP Max Fried, Atlanta8 of 12
Max FriedMatthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 13 GS, 78.2 IP, 59 H (6 HR), 70 K, 24 BB, 3.20 ERA
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts referred to Max Fried as “the best left-hander in the game” in 2022 and, honestly, that opinion is still valid.
There’s a yawning gap (4.5, to be exact) in rWAR between Fried and the next-best lefty for the last five seasons. Much of that has to do with just how effective he is on a pitch-to-pitch basis, as he’s racked up a 2.73 ERA and held hitters to a .224 average.
Atlanta Braves @BravesMax Fried’s career-high 13 strikeouts tonight earns the record for most strikeouts by an NL pitcher at Fenway Park! pic.twitter.com/i3Fa1RbaRU
Fried has thrown 105 fewer innings than Framber Valdez’s lefty-leading 668.1 since 2020, but to call him prone to injuries would be overselling it. Setting aside his recurring blisters, only last year’s forearm strain really stands out.
As he’ll likewise be coming off his age-30 season, he might look at Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year, $245 million deal from 2019 as a sort of gold standard. Yet that deal also feels like a relic that won’t ever be replicated.
But Carlos Rodón’s six-year, $162 million contract from two winters ago? That seems achievable, if not beatable.
Prediction: 6 years, $180 million
4. 1B Pete Alonso, New York Mets9 of 12
Pete AlonsoRich Schultz/Getty Images
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 66 G, 286 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .235 AVG, .315 OBP, .463 SLG
Everyone loves home runs, and Pete Alonso has hit more of them (206) since he debuted in 2019.
You therefore can’t blame Alonso or his agent, the one and only Scott Boras, if they have their sights set on a huge contract in free agency. And they do, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported they’re expected to seek “at least” $200 million.
But isn’t that a little too high?
Alonso may have power in spades, but he’s also a low-average, low-OBP hitter who’s a liability on the basepaths and on defense, where he has minus-20 Outs Above Average. His profile is less Freddie Freeman and more Chris Davis.
A scary proposition, to be sure, but either one of those comes with a $160 million price tag. That could even be a baseline for Alonso, who’s notably two years younger than Freeman was as a free agent and not as prone to whiffs as Davis was.
Prediction: 7 years, $189 million
3. 3B Alex Bregman, Houston Astros10 of 12
Alex BregmanBrace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images
Age: 30
2024 Stats: 65 G, 280 PA, 9 HR, 2 SB, .240 AVG, .304 OBP, .402 SLG
Alex Bregman’s numbers don’t scream “elite free agent.” But they’re misleading.
He’s historically been more of a second-half hitter, posting a .915 OPS after the All-Star break compared to an .820 OPS before it. He’s already trending toward more of the same, as his last 32 games have seen him post an .892 OPS with eight homers.
Houston Astros @astrosBreggy is on 🔥 pic.twitter.com/urjPWMaanc
Bregman’s walk rate is down in 2024, but he’s trying to make this seven years in a row with a strikeout rate in at least the 90th percentile. He also has 25 Outs Above Average for his career.
The 11-year, $350 million deal Manny Machado signed last year was arguably too much even then, and time already isn’t doing it any favors. As such, let’s avoid looking at it as a precedent for Bregman’s next deal even if he’s in the same ballpark age-wise.
It makes more sense to look to Machado’s original 10-year, $300 million deal, which locked him up through his age-35 season. A similar length with a higher average annual value for Bregman would get him close to $200 million.
Prediction: 6 years, $192 million
2. RHP Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles11 of 12
Corbin BurnesG Fiume/Getty Images
Age: 29
2024 Stats: 14 GS, 86.2 IP, 65 H (8 HR), 82 K, 22 BB, 2.08 ERA
Even if he didn’t yet know he would be playing 2024 in Baltimore and not in Milwaukee, Corbin Burnes might as well have come right out and said “Hell no!” to signing an extension in December.
“Every guy who gets this close to free agency wants to test the market,” Burnes, who’s notably another Boras client, told Foul Territory.
The 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner’s comments had a chance to age poorly, but so much for that. He’s having a terrific season, and it’s only adding to what’s arguably the best resume of any starting pitcher over the last five years.
Burnes will be coming off his age-29 season, which will make him one year older than Gerrit Cole when he signed for nine years, $324 million after the 2019 season.
Yet even if it’s shorter by a year, the righty’s next deal could at least resemble Cole’s in average annual value. And if so, we’ll be looking at a real whopper.
Prediction: 8 years, $288 million
1. RF Juan Soto, New York Yankees12 of 12
Juan SotoRonald Martinez/Getty Images
Age: 25
2024 Stats: 67 G, 303 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .317 AVG, .432 OBP, .593 SLG
Juan Soto was never not going to get paid this winter, but what he’s doing in his first year as a Yankee isn’t exactly hurting his cause.
He’s trying to make this his fifth year in a row with more walks than strikeouts, and his slugging percentage would mark a personal high for a full 162-game season. Per his .661 expected slugging percentage, there could even be room for growth there.
MLB @MLBJUAN. SOTO. 😤 pic.twitter.com/FzkoEFkRaJ
So, you know how that one anonymous player told The Athletic about how all Soto does is “walk and hit singles?” It’s probably best to just ignore that.
He’s even looked like a new man on defense, pulling off a plus-10 swing in Outs Above Average relative to 2023. And since he doesn’t celebrate his next birthday until Oct. 25, he’ll be a young 26 when he reaches free agency.
It’s been reported and speculated on that the bidding for Soto, who’s yet another Boras client, will start at $500 million. Between that and the year he’s having, I figure I’ll stick to my initial prediction from December.
Prediction: 15 years, $520 million
