Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul -to-head, tournament so far

By Anthony BrownPublished: 08 July 2024 5:03 PM
Last updated: 08 July 2024 8:01 PM

Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s Wimbledon quarter-final match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Carlos Alcaraz’s Wimbledon title defence meets its next challenge in Tommy Paul, with both in-form players set to battle in Tuesday’s quarter-final.

Paul has already defeated two Spaniards en route to a first last-eight match at the Championships, and he aims to stun the No. 3 seed, who became the second-youngest player in the Open Era — behind Rafael Nadal’s 2007 feat — to reach the men’s singles quarter-final at the Australian Open, Roland Garros and SW19 after Sunday’s battling four-set match against Ugo Humbert in the fourth round.

Match preview
© Reuters

Yet again on Centre Court, supporters got the full Alcaraz experience in his last-16 match against Humbert, as he claimed the first set with ease, just about edged the second, dipped spectacularly in the third and looked to be losing his head in the fourth, only to find enough to defeat the Frenchman 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-5.

The No. 3 seed struggled to hold serve in the third set and early on in the fourth, with Humbert’s adept returns and aggressive ball striking posing issues for the defending champion, who ultimately came through another arduous match after a thrilling five-setter against Frances Tiafoe in the previous round.

Several records tumbled after another Slam victory for last year’s champion, who seeks to claim the Championships weeks after a maiden French Open win, keen to notch his fourth triumph in the majors.

Only Nadal (21 years and 32 days) has advanced to the last eight at the first three Grand Slams in a calendar younger than Alcaraz (21 years and 63 days), who has made it to nine quarter-finals in 14 attempts in the main draws — another Open Era record.

Another potential semi-final against Jannik Sinner — a repeat of their Roland Garros semi-final — beckons if both players come through their imminent matches, even if the defending champion cannot look that far ahead with Paul an undoubted threat.

The American is on a roll on grass, and he aims to end the No. 3 seed’s 11-match winning streak on the lawns of Wimbledon.

Paul has built on success at the Queen’s Club Championships in the lead-up to the third Slam of the year, where he ended an in-form Jack Draper’s winning run and dropped one set throughout the week-long event for a first title on grass.

He became American No. 1 due to that triumph at Queen’s and has carried that form into this year’s Championships, to make it to the last eight in SW19 for the first time.

Paul’s run could have been over in the early rounds with the 27-year-old taken to five sets in his second-round win over Otto Virtanen following his round-one match in four.

The pressure has possibly been lifted since, underlined by consecutive straight-set wins in rounds three and four, with the latter coming against Roberto Bautista Agut as he triumphed 6-2, 7-6(3), 6-2 on Sunday.

Having already got the better of two Spaniards en route to a first quarter-final match at Wimbledon, Paul seeks a third against the world No. 3 and defending champion to make a second-ever semi-final at the Slams.

Tournament so far
Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Mark Lajal 7-6[3] 7-5 6-2
Second round: vs. Aleksandar Vukic 7-6[5] 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Frances Tiafoe 5-7 6-2 4-6 7-6(2) 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Ugo Humbert 6-3 6-4 1-6 7-5

Tommy Paul:

First round: vs. Pedro Martinez 6-2 6-1 4-6 6-3
Second round: vs. Otto Virtanen 4-6 6-3 5-7 7-5 6-4
Third round: vs. Alexander Bublik 6-3 6-4 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Roberto Bautista Agut 6-2 7-6[3] 6-2

Head To Head
Canadian Open (2022) – Round of 32: Paul 6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3

Miami Masters (2023) – Round of 16: Alcaraz 6-4 6-4

Canadian Open (2023) – Quarter-final: Paul 6-3 4-6 6-3

Cincinnati Open (2023) – Round of 16: Alcaraz 7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3

Alcaraz and Paul meet for the fifth time since their first match-up two years ago, with the pair tied after four encounters.

All four matches have been in Masters 1000 events on hard courts, with both Paul victories coming in Canada (2022 and 2023). However, Alcaraz won their recent meeting in Cincinnati last year, clinching a round of 16 victory in three sets.

We say: Alcaraz to win in five sets
Tuesday’s match-up should be fascinating for several reasons as Alcaraz’s 11-match winning streak at Wimbledon meets Paul’s ongoing nine-match sequence on grass.

The American has momentum but facing the defending champion is a different challenge entirely. Alcaraz’s wont to dip within matches means Paul possibly forces a decider on Tuesday, with the Spaniard expected to continue his sequence of winning extended matches at Slams.

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