The Open 2024: 1st round weather calls for 25 mph gusts

The Open Championship is all about the weather.

It’s the most unpredictable of the four majors, as truly nobody has any idea on how things will shape it out. It’s also the most unfair, with one side of the field often drawing better conditions, while the other barely survives—that’s exactly what happened the last time The Open visited Royal Troon, when Henrik Stenson won in 2016.

It’s all based on Mother Nature.

So with that in mind, let’s check out the forecast for Thursday’s opening round.

Earlier in the week, meteorologists called for a blinding rain and a harsh wind, but that forecast has dissipated. Instead, a cloudy morning with some drizzle will give way to a light rain in the afternoon. Temperatures will hover in the mid 60s—a classic Scottish summer day.

Interestingly, the wind will blow out of the south at a consistent 10-to-15 miles per hour. Gusts will get up to 25, which certainly makes things difficult, but a southerly wind is rarely seen at Royal Troon. Typically, the breeze blows from the north, meaning the first six holes—the easiest stretch on the course—will play downwind.

The exact opposite will play out on Thursday.

The 1st tee at Royal Troon.

Photo by Tom Shaw/R&A via Getty Images

Players typically look to attack Troon’s benign opening stretch, but they will have to face a sustained wind to begin the championship.

That means the back-nine—one of the hardest second nines found anywhere in the world—will play downwind, which should help ease the pain of it’s brutality. The 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th holes is Troon’s most challenging set of holes, but the 200-yard par-3 14th does not offer much of a reprieve either. The only gettable hole on the backside is truly the par-5 16th, which, in the northerly wind, typically plays as a three shot hole. But with the rare breeze from the south, many players should be able to get home in two on 16 on Thursday.

On the opposite nine, the par-5 4th and the par-5 6th typically play downwind, but that will not be the case on Thursday. The 6th is the longest hole in Open Championship history, at 623 yards, so it would come as a surprise if somebody got home in two there. The 4th, meanwhile, measures 599 yards, and will likely play as the easiest hole all week. With that said, the wind on Thursday will not do the players any favors on the 4th.

Play begins at 1:35 a.m. ET on Thursday, when Justin Leonard, who won the 1997 Open at Royal Troon, is set to strike the opening tee shot.

Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.