Ukraine’s growing soy output could be vital to Europe

Ukraine is Europe’s largest soy exporter. Its soy exports make up 0.9% of the global supply, according to Statista. While this is miniscule compared to Brazil (49.7%) and the US (36.8%), it is the​ key source for soy grown in Europe.

According to Vitaliy Golovnya, Ukraine’s deputy minister for agrarian policy and food, soybean yields have seen a significant increase in recent years, despite the challenges of the war and despite a decrease in other key crops.

How can Ukrainian soy help Europe?​According to the organisation Donau Soja, Ukraine is the most important soy supplier in Europe. This is because, the organisation suggests, Ukraine’s soy can fulfil the need for deforestation-free and GMO-free soy demanded by the upcoming EUDR regulation. According to the organisation, the EUDR is expected to shift demand away from Brazilian soy towards soy like Ukraine’s, which has a lower deforestation risk.

The EU’s soya self-sufficiency rate is currently 8%, which, Donau Soja suggests, poses a threat to EU food security.

Ukraine is working hard to fulfil the requirements of the EUDR, according to Golovnya. He predicts that they will be ready by the 30 December deadline.

How has recent weather impacted Ukrainian soy?The hot weather seen in Europe recently has decreased soy yields compared to Donau Soja’s forecasts, despite an increase in soy sowing in all major regions. Its revised prediction for Ukraine suggests the country’s soy area will grow by 10% in 2024, reaching two million hectares. Donau Soja predicts an output of 4.6 million tonnes, which is 3.2% less than the previous season.

Falling soy pricesSoy prices have continued to fall​, in spite of events such as the flooding in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, a few months ago. This is largely due to increased production, according to Expana (formerly Mintec). Weak demand​ also plays a factor.

Ukraine’s agrometeorological conditions improved during August, according to Donau Soja, meaning that growing conditions for soybean improved. Rainfall in western and northern Ukraine helped the crop flourish as it increased the moisture in the topsoil, while the absence of rain in southern, central and eastern Ukraine caused the depletion of the crop. In the Poltava region, the plant was completely desiccated. In some regions, the situation was worsened by weeds and crop pests.

How does the war affect agriculture?​On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. The country is still at war, which among other things makes agriculture more challenging. Since then, about 19% of land has been lost to Russia. However, soybean production has increased 2.2 times since the 2020/2021 marketing year, despite other crops decreasing.

How can soy comply with the EUDR?In order to comply with the EUDR, you must be aware of your supply chain​. The more certainty about your supply chain the better. Certification schemes for sustainable soy can also help. However, neither of these things are enough on their own and manufacturers must perform due diligence.

The biggest priority, Golovnya suggested, is de-mining agricultural land. As of today, over 400,000 hectares of land have been de-mined. Farmers receive full compensation for the de-mined land when they have a contract with a de-mining company.

Through its use of the Black Sea corridor, Ukraine’s agricultural exports began to return to their previous frequency. In fact, Golovnya suggested, in the period of January to May this year, the country exported more agricultural goods than before the war.