Forget Arsenal, Spurs really, really need to prove they are not fall guys

Arsenal, Arsenal, Arsenal. That’s been the build-up to Sunday’s North London Derby which, last we checked, involved two sides. Yet all we’ve heard about is the pressure on Arsenal not to drop any points, knowing that any slips are costly in any title race against Manchester City.

Spurs have barely got a mention. As much as their fans would beg to differ, the popular perception is that this game is a free hit for them. Despite Tottenham Hotspur playing host this weekend, the bookies are universally favouring Arsenal.

But the reality is that this is the exactly the kind of game that Tottenham need to start winning if they are serious about breaking back into the top four.

Over the past two seasons, Tottenham have taken just 12 points from 18 games (0.67 per game) against sides who finished the respective campaigns in the top five: three wins, three draws and 12 defeats. Go outside the top five and it’s 114 from 58 (1.97 per game).

Getting just two more points from those encounters last season would have qualified Spurs for the Champions League. Their record of just 10 points from 14 games against the sides above them in 2022/23 was exactly why they finished as low as eighth.

READ: Big Weekend: North London Derby takes centre stage but all eyes on a Man Utd debutant

Naturally, you’d expect those games to be tougher for all concerned, but that’s a poor record. And it’s not just that Tottenham lost a lot of those games against their top five rivals: they’ve been characteristically defensively feeble, keeping just two clean sheets in those 18 games and conceding 42 in the others. There have been seven occasions on which Spurs have scored at least twice in those high-pressure games and still not won.

Just to add a little bit of extra oomph, Tottenham’s worst record of all in the Premier League over the past two seasons has been against Arsenal. Their closest rivals are the only Big Eight side Spurs have not beaten at all since 2021/22.

City and Arsenal’s title challenges have been built on avoiding defeat against the top sides and consistently winning against the rest; Spurs are far closer to achieving the second than the first.

Tottenham have shown the same traits already in this nascent campaign, dominating as they did for so much of the game against Newcastle just before the international break, only to end up on the losing side.

There’s a reason we picked out Ange Postecoglou as one Premier League manager happy to see Erik ten Hag under so much pressure. Their only five wins in the last 14 Premier League games have been against Luton, Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Sheffield United and Everton.

That means that even setting the local rivalry to one side, getting these points is just as important for Tottenham as it is for Arsenal – even if just to prove they can.