IRONMAN World Championship 2024: Expert predictions and podium picks for a Nice blockbuster
Who will win the Womenâs IRONMAN World Championship title this Sunday in Nice, France?
Thatâs the topic we are trying to unpack here, when highlighting the key contenders for victory on the French Riviera.
Winding back almost 12 months, ahead of the 2023 IRONMAN World Championship in Kona when trying to address the same question, I felt there was a clear âsuper sevenâ in contention for the top spots. When I did my post-race âlearningsâ wrap, what was so impressive I thought was how strongly that group of favourites performed under pressure, filling the top six positions between them.
Another year and another continent on, and things are a little different. Daniela Ryf has retired and Taylor Knibb is not here for a start, so who will be the likely stars this year?
I think it could be Great Britain vs. Germany, with that âclear favouritesâ group considerably smaller this time around. So letâs look at those contenders for victoryâŠ
Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR)
When looking at favourites, the natural place to start is with the defending champion. Winner in Kona last year, and doing so in course-record time, LCB has more than proven her IRONMAN World Championship credentials. Between 2017 and 2023 she finished second four times before that famous victory. In short, sheâs shown incredible consistency on the biggest stage.
Nice is not Kona of course, but Lucy has experience of the French Riviera. As well as a fifth-place finish back at the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship in 2019, she did her validation race to secure her start this coming weekend at the IRONMAN France race in June.
Photo by Pablo Blazquez Dominguez/Getty Images
The best swimmer in the sport, the opening ocean swim should also play to her strengths, with the gaps â my take at least â likely to be a little bigger than they would be relative to courses such as the Main Donau Kanal in Roth. Any extra minutes gained there could be crucial. On the bike, Lucy has likely racked up, quite literally, years of her life training on the tough hills of Lanzarote, so thereâs no obvious reason to think that once on dry land she wonât be able to mix it with the majority of the favourites around the Alps Maritime.
So, is it game over and is LCB the odds-on favourite? Not quite. Any counter-arguments come from two primary sources. Firstly, coming into 2024 the Charles-Barclay target was explicitly not to race in Nice, with a focus all-in on the PTOâs T100 Tour. The reversal of that decision came in early June, ahead of that race at IRONMAN France. Will it prove to be the right call, and did any change in objectives leave enough time to optimise performance for the longer format? With so many racing options right now, optimising the right mix and volume of racing really is a key task.
The other topic â and interestingly, it was something she referenced back in February when outlining the reason for her season planning â is injury status. Her incredible victory in Hawaii last year came despite running through the pain of a torn calf, and that has been something that she and her team have had to manage through the year. She ran very strongly at IRONMAN France, but was unable to finish at T100 London, withdrawing as a precautionary measure after feeling pain in her Achilles.
Whatever the result, my fingers are crossed that injury is not a factor in the outcome.
Anne Haug (GER)
If you apply the saying, âyou are only as good as your last raceâ, then Anne Haug wonât even be in your discussions. To do that however, would be reckless in the extreme.
That race of course was T100 London, where the 2019 IRONMAN World Champion finished outside of the top 10, and even her trump card, the run, didnât really turn up. For some context, thatâs only the second time in her middle and long-distance racing career, which is now into its eighth year, that Anne has not finished on the podium. Fourth at IRONMAN Frankfurt 2018 was that sole previous instance.
Iâm going to place almost no weight on that event as a factor however. Coming three weeks after a stunning, record-breaking performance at Challenge Roth, and carrying over some fatigue plus sickness that has been a problem through various points in 2024, every athlete has a bad day⊠and Anne hadnât had one for more than six years.
Anne Haug celebrates an historic win [Photo credit: Simon Fischer | Challenge Roth]
Mirroring much of the history of Lucy Charles-Barclay, when the IRONMAN World Championship rolls around, Haug can be relied upon to be ready. Since her Kona debut in 2018, Anneâs IM World Champs record comprises a win, a second and three third-place finishes from five starts.
While it is partly due to circumstances, Haugâs season also looks fully focused on the full distance. It wasnât just Roth she excelled at. Back in May â after missing the first two T100 races â Haugâs season opener was a very impressive 40+ minute victory at IRONMAN Lanzarote. While nobody would suggest that the field there was remotely close to the competition this weekend, it did represent a new course record, one that was closed with a 2:49 marathon.
To further add weight to her Nice focus, Haug took the unusual route of taking part in the (age-group) IRONMAN 70.3 Nice event, to get a feel of at least some of the course under racing conditions.
Any question marks then? I think the unknown might be the impact of the extended periods of sickness and whether any degree of training interruption will catch up with her. Those performances in Lanzarote and Roth show that Haug is able to perform well and find her top form in relatively short periods of time â a lifetime of endurance to call upon is clearly a help there.
Weâll find out on Sunday if any missing endurance base from earlier in the season will catch up with here.
Kat Matthews (GBR)
For different reasons, the Kat Matthews 2024 season didnât get off to the best of starts â but like Anne Haug, what sheâs done since means that she absolutely has to be one of the key favourites on Sunday.
Setting out the year with a busy schedule aiming at both the T100 Tour and IRONMAN Pro Series, that looked under threat in March when a spontaneous calf tear at T100 Miami took her out of the race, and potentially meant a re-write of those plans. While that unforeseen setback provided a psychological toll in the short term, Matthews has proven history on recovering from far greater setbacks. Seven weeks later she was back to win IRONMAN Texas again.
Itâs not all been plain sailing since then either, with a DQ at IRONMAN Hamburg, but a quick change of plans and flight to San Francisco the following week was rewarded with a T100 second place there to a dominant Taylor Knibb. From there, the twin goals of T100 and IRONMAN Pro Series have continued in consistent style at IRONMAN Vitoria-Gasteiz (win), T100 London (third) and IRONMAN 70.3 Tallinn (second).
Photo by Eric Alonso/Getty Images for Ironma
Matthews also has championship success on her C.V. having finished second at the â2021â IRONMAN World Championship in St George, plus another silver last year over the 70.3 format in Lahti. Despite that start in Miami then, to this point in the season Kat has pretty much all of her targets in terms of âseriesâ points, and can come into this fully focused on the World Championship aspect.
Alongside that, Kat is also very balanced in terms of her skills. Sure, she â along with likely everyone else â wonât be close to LCB out of the water, but sheâs shown numerous times, including at that St George World Champs, sheâs one of the best cyclists in the field⊠and perhaps more importantly here, a very good runner off the bike. She certainly wouldnât want to start the run shoulder-to-shoulder with Anne Haug, but at the same time, she would not fear her either.
Laura Philipp (GER)
Imagine delivering an 8:14 full-distance finish as a female athlete and getting overshadowed? Thatâs largely what happened to Germanyâs Laura Philipp at Challenge Roth this season.
The reason of course was that sensational 8:02:38 clocked by her compatriot Anne Haug in Bavaria, but itâs absolutely worth noting that Philipp also improved her own performance by 11 minutes between 2023 and 2024, finishing the day off with a 2:44 marathon in the process.
Consistency really is the hallmark of Philipp, who comes into this race at the PTOâs World Ranked #5, and with four podium finishes and two fourth place finishes from her six starts in 2024. Two of those were finishing one position behind Kat Matthews at both the San Francisco and London T100 events.
Laura secured her first IRONMAN World Championship podium last year with third place in Kona. Coming into the sport very late, Philipp started her swimming from pretty much ground zero, and she was one of the biggest favourites not to make the âmainâ chase group in Hawaii. While the bike course on the French Riviera is likely to see less in terms of group dynamics due to the terrain, if she can start the bike in sight of the likes of Haug and Matthews, that would be a hugely positive start to her day.
If sheâs forced onto the back foot from the start, then I think it could be a race for the podium rather than the win for Laura.
Photo Credit: Christoph Raithel / Challenge Roth
Chelsea Sodaro (USA)
The IRONMAN World Champion from 2022 is likely not the âwinnerâ pick for too many, but when youâve shown you can do it once, and are still one of the absolute best runners in the sport, dismissing her podium prospects out of hand could prove to be a mistake.
Dealing with the ups and downs of life changing after that Kona win hasnât always been the easiest for Chelsea, but the saying, âform is temporary, class is permanentâ is widely used one. And how is that form? Now at #14 in the PTO World Rankings, while it was early season and perhaps forgotten a little now, Sodaro set new course record figures when winning IRONMAN New Zealand in March this year. That included a sub 2:50 marathon, showing that her fleet feet are still very much there.
The question will be, can she be close enough to the front of the race at T2 to be in podium contention? She was sixth last year in Kona âon one of my worst days everâ, so will be aiming to bring her healthy 2022 version to the beach start on Sunday.
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images for IRONMAN)
Live Outsiders
Iâm all but certain that Sundayâs winner will come from one of the five names Iâve outlined above â and in truth, likely from one of the first four.
That doesnât mean that others canât feature or impact that race, and in that bracket Iâd include local favourite Marjolaine PierrĂ© (FRA), Els Visser (NED), India Lee (GBR) in only her third IRONMAN start and perhaps Jackie Hering (USA).
Thatâs said, I think anyone has a very tough ask ahead to crack the podium from that leading group.
Final Prediction and Podium Picks
Enough words then, hereâs my final take. As with the menâs race last year, I think this race could be won on the bike â but as the saying goes, itâs âbike for show, run for doughâ, so a fast bike is of no use unless backed up by a very solid run.
Based on Kona last year â and with the added advantage of a guaranteed lead from the swim â that might initially suggest that LCB is the clear pick, but there has to be some concern about that injury from the London T100, especially with a marathon to run.
With that in mind, Iâm going to go for Kat Matthews to utilise the same sort of tactics she did in St George in May 2022, with a very strong bike, and then have to hold off a late charge from Anne Haug on the run. Iâm not sure weâve ever truly seen what Matthews is fully capable of over an IRONMAN marathon yet, but Sunday could well require that to be answered if she is to claim world title glory.
1. Kat Matthews (GBR)
2. Anne Haug (GER)
3. Lucy Charles-Barclay (GBR)
