Fever vs. Sun prediction, odds, schedule for 2024 WNBA Playoffs first round series featuring Caitlin Clark

After making her WNBA debut at Connecticut’s Mohegan Sun Arena, Fever No. 1 overall pick Caitlin Clark will make her WNBA Playoffs debut on the very same floor.

In the first round of the 2024 WNBA Playoffs, Clark and the No. 6 Fever will face Alyssa Thomas and the No. 3 Sun. Indiana returns to the postseason after an eight-year drought while Connecticut makes its eighth consecutive trip to the playoffs.

Clark’s debut kicked off a rough start for the Fever, who lost eight of their first nine games of the season. In the time since, however, Clark and All-Star teammates Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell have turned things around in Indiana, which enters the postseason with plenty of momentum.

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The Sun, on the other hand, have essentially been a juggernaut all season aside from a few small missteps. Thomas & Co. are still in search of the franchise’s first-ever WNBA title and they have a real shot to make a run in 2024.

As the young up-and-comers look to upset the established group of veterans, we have you covered with everything you need to know about this year’s 3-vs-6 matchup in the WNBA.

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Fever vs. Sun predictionPrediction: Sun in three

The Fever finished a few games behind the Sun in the standings but the two teams have been playing at an equal level since the Olympics ended.

Connecticut is the superior team and has a stylistic advantage for the postseason, imposing its will physically to make life difficult for Clark and Indiana’s interior duo of Aliyah Boston and NaLyssa Smith. The Sun also added shooting with the acquisition of Marina Mabrey, checking a much-needed box for their hopes of contention.

That said, the Fever are a talented team and can get hot from deep. If Indiana has one of its signature nights on the offensive end, Connecticut may not have the offensive firepower to keep up.

Indiana is pesky enough to steal one game in Connecticut, which would set up a winner-takes-all Game 3 on the Fever’s home floor. Ultimately, the Sun’s experience will allow them to prevail, but this just feels like a series that is destined to go the distance.

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Fever vs. Sun oddsThis section will be updated when odds are released by BetMGM.

Fever vs. Sun regular season seriesIndiana and Connecticut met four times during the 2024 regular season. The Sun won the season series, 3-1.

May 14: Sun 92, Fever 71May 20: Sun 88, Fever 84June 10: Sun 89, Fever 72Aug. 28: Fever 84, Sun 80After meeting twice during opening week, the Fever and Sun met once more before the Olympic break and had their final meeting in late August. The timing of the meetings is important to note as Indiana has been a much different team since an abysmal start to the season.

The two close decisions were played at Indiana’s Gainbridge Fieldhouse while the two games in Connecticut were routs. For those reasons, the Sun’s homecourt advantage will be key in the series.

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Fever vs. Sun key storyline: Can Caitlin Clark crack Connecticut’s code?Clark is turning in one of the best seasons in WNBA history but she’s had her fair share of troubles with the Sun’s defense.

Over four games against Connecticut, Clark’s scoring and assists numbers are lower than her season averages, a testament to the defensive game plan of Sun coach Stephanie White and the defensive job of DiJonai Carrington, among others.

To be fair to Clark, the averages are slightly skewed because she played two of the first four games of her career against Connecticut, but she even saw a dip in efficiency and playmaking in the team’s final regular season head-to-head.

A look at Clark’s averages against the Sun vs. her season averages illustrates the story well.

Caitlin Clark stats Regular seasonvs. SunPPG19.516.5RPG5.72.0APG8.43.8SPG1.31.0BPG0.70.8TO/G5.66.3FG-FGA6.2-14.7 (41.7%)5.0-12.8 (39.2%)3P-3PA3.1-9.0 (34.1%)3.0-8.8 (34.3%)FT-FTA4.1-4.6 (90.4%)3.5-3.5 (100.0%)The most notable difference is Clark’s low assists numbers. It’s intuitive, but by limiting her playmaking, the Sun force Clark’s teammates to create for themselves, breaking down some of the free-flowing motion the Fever aim to have offensively.

To say Connecticut hangs its hat on the defensive end may be an understatement — its defensive rating has been first or second in each of the last four seasons. The Sun also allowed the second-fewest assists to opponents this season.

If Clark can figure out ways to distribute and play at the peak of her powers, the Fever will have a chance.

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Fever vs. Sun scheduleDateGameTime (ET)TV channelSunday, Sept. 22Game 1 at Sun3 p.m.TBDWednesday, Sept. 25Game 2 at Sun7:30 p.m.TBDTBDGame 3 at Fever*TBDTBD*If necessary