Takeaways and Fallout of Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani’s Historic 50/50 Season
Megan Briggs/Getty Images
It must be a day ending in a Y, because Shohei Ohtani has done something that had never been done before in Major League Baseball.
50 home runs and 50 stolen bases? Yup, he did that.
Ohtani reaching the 50-50 threshold has felt inevitable since he became the fastest player (and only the sixth ever) to join the 40-40 Club on August 23. What finally got the Los Angeles Dodgers star there was this homer against the Miami Marlins on Thursday:
MLB @MLBSHOHEI OHTANI HAS DONE IT
50 HOME RUNS | 50 STOLEN BASES
HISTORY pic.twitter.com/GRVJUCbpja
Leave it to Ohtani to not only reach 50-50, but to do so as part of the game of his life. He also had two other homers among his six hits, with 10 runs batted in and two stolen bases. Ohtani now sits at 51-51.
For a guy with only six years of experience, Ohtani had an outsized place in MLB history even before he snapped the league’s 147-year streak without a 50-50 player. That’s what two MVPs, creds as the greatest two-way player ever and a $700 million contract will do for you.
But what does him reaching 50-50 mean, exactly?
Does Ohtani Have the NL MVP Locked Up?
Yes. Next question.
New York Mets fans gesturing in Francisco Lindor’s direction have a case. He is leading Ohtani in fWAR, and both his offense (31 HR, 27 SB) and defense (17 OAA) have been crucial for a surprising Mets squad.
Yet at -2500, the DraftKings odds overwhelmingly favor Ohtani for the National League MVP. It’s ultimately hard to argue against a 50-50 player, least of all one who also leads the NL in runs, runs batted in, total bases and OPS.
Plus, don’t forget how Ohtani carried the Dodgers when they needed it the most. While fellow MVP Mookie Betts was out of action with a fractured hand between June 17 and August 11, Ohtani posted a 1.042 OPS with 16 homers and 17 steals in 42 games.
The Dodgers have already clinched a playoff spot. But without Ohtani, their slight 4-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the NL West might be even smaller.
How Does 50-50 Rate as an Accomplishment?
The fact that Ohtani is the first 50-50 player ever would seem to make the answer self-explanatory, but is this truly the best power-speed season in MLB history?
Perhaps not.
There’s a Bill James-devised metric meant to encapsulate a player’s prowess as a home run hitter and base stealer, and it rates Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 41-homer, 73-steal season from 2023 as the best power-speed performance ever.
But there are other ways to look at this, starting with just how rare it is for a player to record 50 homers and 50 steals at any point in his career.
MLB @MLBThe stolen base that gave Shohei Ohtani his 50th of the season!
He has been successful on his last 27 stolen base attempts 🤯 pic.twitter.com/rsSHCsG27L
Before 2024, only 31 players hit 50 home runs in a season. Of those, only two were among the 218 players with a 50-steal season: Barry Bonds and Brady Anderson.
And remember, Ohtani’s 50 home runs only represent a portion of his power output. He also has 34 doubles and seven triples, making him the first player in history with at least 90 extra-base hits and 50 stolen bases in a season.
Best power-speed season ever? Best power-speed season ever.
Could Anyone Else Get to 50-50 in the Future?
Since MLB is in a golden age of 30-30 seasons, there’s no harm in wondering if anyone could follow Ohtani’s lead and leap to 50-50.
Don’t be surprised if it takes another 147 years, though.
Bobby Witt Jr. is the only player to go 30-30 in the last two seasons. But the 30-homer range may be his ceiling if for no other reason than Kauffman Stadium is a lousy place to hit homers.
Julio RodrÃguez should have had room to grow after reaching 32 homers and 37 steals last year, but he’s regressed to 16 and 22 this year. This could be a mere blip, but he’s another guy with a dimensions disadvantage at T-Mobile Park.
The opposite is true of Elly De La Cruz, who plays his home games at notoriously slugger-friendly Great American Ball Park. But while he does have 64 stolen bases this year, he could double up on his current home run total (48) and still be short of 50.
The better long-hold bet in the NL Central might be Jackson Chourio, who just became the youngest player ever to go 20-20. But getting to 50-50 will require adding much more oomph to his bat, which only produces exit velocities in the 64th percentile.
Acuña could potentially give it a shot, but only if recovery from his second left ACL tear goes as well as the first. And while we’re talking percentiles, even his first torn ACL coincided with his sprint speed going from the 97th to the 67th percentile.
Which brings us back to Ohtani as the best bet to go 50-50 again, but that may depend on what his future holds.
What’s Next for Ohtani?
If Ohtani’s season is nothing else—and it is many things, to be sure—it is proof of concept for what he’s capable of when he doesn’t have to worry about pitching.
With his pitching duties effectively suspended until 2025 as he recovers from a second major elbow operation, the possibility of the 30-year-old Ohtani pushing the offensive envelope in 2024 always did seem strong.
This is, after all, a guy who averaged a 40-20 season between 2021 and 2023 even as he split his time between the plate and the mound.
MLB @MLBShohei Ohtani last night, 40/40.
Today, throwing off a mound for the first time since elbow surgery 👀 pic.twitter.com/jjQtSCqZkF
Though Ohtani is “not sure” he’ll return to pitching in October, all signs point to him being a two-way player again in 2025. Yet there’s also been reporting, including by Bob Nightengale of USA Today, that he could give up pitching if the Dodgers asked.
If it hasn’t already, that discussion frankly needs to happen in the club’s front office.
There is ample reward in returning Ohtani to two-way duties, but his elbow will always be at risk. The need to preserve his legs would likely mean fewer stolen bases. By contrast, keeping him as a full-time hitter (be it as a designated hitter or an outfielder) is pretty much all reward and no risk.
In the meantime, what’s for sure is that Ohtani doesn’t need to wait until 2025 to add another extraordinary feat to his legacy.
When the Dodgers take the field in the playoffs, it’ll be nothing new for them but a first for Ohtani, who never sniffed the postseason with the Los Angeles Angels. It’ll be his chance to prove his history-making act works just as well in October as in every other month.
From how he’s handled big moments he’s encountered in the past, don’t put it past him to make like Carlos Beltrán or Randy Arozarena and go off for an all-time October onslaught.
Where Does the GOAT Debate Stand Now?
The problem with arguing for Ohtani as the Greatest of All Time is that the last two words of that phrase matter just as much as the first.
Longevity should count, in other words, especially if anyone dares stack Ohtani up to the likes of Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and Willie Mays. Each has over 150 career rWAR. Even between his hitting and pitching, Ohtani is only at 41.8.
Since the term “greatest” has some malleability inherent in it, I’m personally inclined to lean toward Ruth. It’s not even about the numbers so much as about how he basically reinvented baseball in his image, with the home run as its beating heart. Over a century later, not a whole lot has changed.
What can nonetheless be said unequivocally about Ohtani is this: He’s the Most Talented Player of All Time.
Maybe it doesn’t roll off the tongue, but it’s true. He’s the only player who’s ever been 40 percent better than both the average hitter and the average starting pitcher. And even before he founded the 50-50 Club, he was the only player ever to go 40-20 three times within his first seven MLB seasons.
It would be exciting if all this led to a Ruth-like reinvention of baseball, with the game suddenly consisting of powerful and speedy dynamos who moonlight as ace pitchers. But to believe in that is to believe that Ohtani is a standard that can be lived up to.
That is not what he is, and nobody has ever summarized why better than his manager.
“He’s one of one,” Dave Roberts said in August. “A unicorn.”
