Oscar Predictions 2025: Race Begins to Heat Up as ‘Anora,’ ‘The Brutalist’ and ‘Emilia Pérez’ Garner Awards Buzz at Fall Festivals
Apple Original Films / A24 / Sony Pictures Classics / Neon / Netflix
Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories
Courtesy of Columbia Pictures
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 23, 2024): The buzz surrounding films showcased at the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals has started to clarify which titles may dominate this year’s awards season. Though it’s still early, specific patterns and historical Oscar trends provide useful insights into how the race might unfold.
One of the big winners out of Venice was Pedro Almodóvar’s “The Room Next Door,” which took home the prestigious Golden Lion. This marks a significant boost for the film, as winning at Venice is often a stepping stone toward Oscar glory. Past Golden Lion winners like “Nomadland” and “Roma” went on to perform exceptionally well at the Academy Awards, setting a solid precedent for Almodóvar’s latest work.
At TIFF, Mike Flanagan’s adaptation of Stephen King’s “The Life of Chuck” emerged as the recipient of the Audience Award despite not having yet secured a U.S. distributor. The film’s popularity at TIFF could signal future success, as audience award winners like “Green Book” and “12 Years a Slave” went on to win best picture at the Oscars. If “The Life of Chuck” finds a distributor and gains momentum, it could enter the race as a dark horse contender.
Brady Corbet’s “The Brutalist” has also garnered significant attention, particularly after being acquired by A24. This historical Holocaust drama, starring Adrien Brody, Guy Pearce, and Felicity Jones, is hailed by some pundits as a potential Oscar juggernaut. However, at 215 minutes long, the film’s extended runtime could challenge maintaining widespread appeal. Films with lengthy runtimes often require the unwavering support of critics’ groups to stay in the conversation. A good comparison is the Japanese film “Drive My Car,” which earned four Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, after winning over critics’ circles. If “The Brutalist” can achieve similar critical acclaim, its odds in the Oscar race could improve significantly.
Another film generating buzz is Tim Fehlbaum’s “September 5,” a tense thriller recently picked up by Paramount Pictures. With the right awards campaign, it has the potential to score noms in multiple categories, especially in acting and screenplay. Paramount’s commitment to backing the film could be crucial in positioning it for Oscar success, much like the studio’s work with previous contenders such as “Top Gun: Maverick” and “A Quiet Place.”
As we look ahead, several highly anticipated films have yet to be reviewed, leaving the Oscar race even more intriguing. Steve McQueen’s “Blitz,” a World War II drama, and James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” are expected to make waves. Additionally, Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II” is already drawing attention, as is Jon M. Chu’s musical adaptation of “Wicked.” Finally, “Here,” a visually ambitious drama from Sony Pictures, also could have the potential to break into technical and artistic categories.
Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.
Top 4 projected nomination leaders (films): “Emilia Pérez” (12); “Gladiator II” (8); “Dune: Part Two,” “The Room Next Door” and “Saturday Night” (7); “The Brutalist” and “Conclave” (6)
Top 3 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (21); Paramount Pictures, Sony Pictures Classics and Warner Bros. (10); A24 (9)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
Image Credit: “The Brutalist” (Courtesy of Focus Features)
“Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Nick Gordon, D.J. Gugenheim, Andrew Lauren, Trevor Matthews, Andrew Morrison, Brian Young
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Alex Heineman, Bob Bookman, Peter Jaysen, Alan Gasmer, Jeff Rosen, Timothée Chalamet, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jason Blumenfeld, Peter Rice, Jason Reitman, GIl Kenan
Oscar category page with rankings
Director
Image Credit: Shanna Besson
Pedro Almodóvar
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jacques Audiard ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Ridley Scott
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings
Actor
Image Credit: A24
Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Timothée Chalamet
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Daniel Craig
“Queer” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Oscar category page with rankings
Actress
Image Credit: Pablo Larraín
Angelina Jolie ***
“Maria” (Netflix)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Tilda Swinton
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Saoirse Ronan
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Oscar category page with rankings
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Cuba Scott
Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Guy Pearce
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Stanley Tucci
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
John Turturro
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankings
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Netflix
Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Selena Gomez
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Saoirse Ronan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Oscar category page with rankings
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Paramount
“Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman
“September 5” (Paramount Pictures)
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum
Oscar category page with rankings
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“Conclave” (Focus Features) ***
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro Almodóvar
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
Oscar category page with rankings
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Annecy Animation Festival
“Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, Gregory Zalcman
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
Morgan Neville, Caitrin Rogers, Pharrell Williams
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Chris Sanders, Jeff Hermann
Oscar category page with rankings
Production Design
Image Credit: Warner Bros.
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Arthur Max, Elli Griff
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Friedberg, Karen O’Hara
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jess Gonchor, Claudia Bonfe
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
Cinematography
Image Credit: PAGE 114 – WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS – PATHÉ FILMS – FRANCE 2 CINÉMA
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Lol Crawley
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Greig Fraser
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Paul Guillaume
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
John Mathieson
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Eduard Grau
Oscar category page with rankings
Costume Design
Image Credit: ©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
Colleen Atwood
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Arianne Phillips
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Jacqueline West
“Maria” (Netflix) ***
Massimo Cantini Parrini
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Linda Muir
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
Film Editing
Image Credit: Neon
“Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Andrew Buckland
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Juliette Welfling
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Nathan Orloff, Shane Reid
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Christine Tamalet
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Maria” (Netflix)
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
Sound
Image Credit: Apple TV+
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
Visual Effects
Image Credit: Disney
“Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
Original Score
Image Credit: DreamWorks
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Volker Bertelmann
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Clément Ducol, Camille
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Alberto Iglesias
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jon Batiste
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Kris Bowers
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
Original Song
Image Credit: Focus Features
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“Piece by Piece” from “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute
“Dahomey” (Mubi)
dir. Mati Diop
“Daughters” (Netflix)
dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)
dirs. Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui
“Will & Harper” (Netflix) ***
dir. Josh Greenbaum
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Videofilmes, Venice Film Festival
“Dahomey” from Senegal (Mubi)
dir. Alice Diop
“Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
dir. Jacques Audiard
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. Walter Salles
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. Rich Peppiatt
“The Seed of a Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
dir. Mohammad Rasoulof
Oscar category page with rankingsComing Soon!
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