College football picks, predictions against the spread for Week 6

A Friday night doubleheader and a few traditional conference rivalries – and a few more new ones – are the highlights of the Week 6 college football schedule. 

No. 25 UNLV hosts Syracuse at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, and the Rebels are trying to maintain their unbeaten season under coach Barry Odom. No. 6 Oregon takes on Michigan State in the same time slot in a new-aged Big Ten matchup. 

Two top-10 teams are underdogs. No. 9 Missouri travels to No. 25 Texas A&M in the 12 p.m. ET window, and No. 10 Michigan faces Washington in a rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff championship. 

No. 5 Georgia meets Auburn and No. 3 Ohio State takes on Iowa in the 3:30 p.m. ET window on Saturday – and the late-night window features No. 8 Miami at Cal.

There is just one matchup between ranked teams, but just wait until next week for that. Oct. 12 might be the best day on the college football schedule. There are 17 games involving ranked FBS teams in Week 6. A look at our track record this season: 

Straight up: 70-16 (16-3 in Week 4)Against the spread: 45-41 (11-8 in Week 4) Here are our picks against the spread for Week 6.

MORE: College Football Playoff outlook after Week 5

College football Week 6 picks against the spreadFriday, Sept. Oct. 4Syracuse at No. 25 UNLV (-4.5) (9 p.m., FS1) The Rebels are 4-0 ATS, and dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams led a 59-14 victory against Fresno State. Kyle McCord leads the FBS with 364.8 passing yards per game. Syracuse is 1-6 ATS as a road underdog since 2022. This line ticked a half-point from its opening, but the Orange are good enough to keep this close. 

Pick: UNLV wins 31-27 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

DECOURCY: UNLV NIL controversy not a sign college football is in trouble

Michigan State at No. 6 Oregon (-24) (9 p.m., Fox) Michigan State coach Jonathan Smith has experience against the Ducks from his time at Oregon State. The Spartans rank 130th in the FBS in turnovers – and that’s going to add up on the road against the Ducks. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel leads the FBS with an 81.5% completion percentage, and he does not turn the ball over. That’s a big number against an improved Michigan State run defense that allows 3.1 yards per attempt, but the Ducks are 14-1 S/U and 10-5 ATS as a home favorite under Dan Lanning.

Pick: Oregon wins 42-14 and COVERS the spread 

Saturday, Oct. 5No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M (-1.5) (12 p.m., ABC) Missouri had a bye week to prepare for Texas A&M – and the Aggies are tied with UNLV at No. 25 after beating Arkansas 21-17. This line hasn’t moved from its opening, but Missouri is being under-valued here. Missouri has a balanced offense that averages 206.5 rushing yards per game with running back Nate Noel, and the defense limits opposing teams to a 50% completion percentage. This is one of two games where the top-10 team is a road underdog this week. We are going to trust the Tigers to pass the road test. 

Pick: Missouri wins 24-21 in an UPSET. 

SMU at No. 22 Louisville (-7) (12 p.m., ESPN) How much of a hangover does Louisville have after the loss to Notre Dame – one in which the Cardinals committed three turnovers? SMU averages 53 points the last two weeks in victories against TCU and Florida State, and the possibility for a high-scoring shootout exists between efficient offenses. SMU ranks second in the ACC with a rushing offense that averages 205.6 yards per game. The Mustangs are 1-5 ATS as a road underdog under Rhett Lashlee, but they work against the trend here in a close call. 

Pick: Louisville wins 31-26 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

UCLA at No. 7 Penn State (-28.5) (12 p.m., Fox) The Bruins have covered the last two weeks in losses to LSU and Oregon. Can they keep that improvement under first-year coach Deshaun Foster going in a tough road matchup at Penn State? UCLA allows 107.3 rushing yards per game, and that will be the key against the tag-team of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The Bruins could run into a wall here knowing they average 13.8 points per game and Ethan Garbers has six interceptions, but we trust the defense to hang for a half. 

Pick: Penn State wins 41-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

Auburn at No. 5 Georgia (-23.5) (3:30 p.m., ABC) The Bulldogs are coming off a loss to Alabama, and how quickly will they bounce back against Auburn – which let an 11-point second-half lead slip against Oklahoma? Auburn has a tough run defense that allows 3.3 yards per carry – so Carson Beck will have to get off to a better start this time. Ultimately, the Bulldogs defense will bounce back against the Tigers, whose quarterbacks have combined to throw nine interceptions. Georgia has won the last three meetings at home between these schools by an average of 23.3 points per game. This will play out close to that line. The Tigers are 1-2 ATS as a road underdog under Hugh Freeze. 

Pick: Georgia wins 34-10 and COVERS the spread. 

BENDER: Georgia falls in what feels like a September Super Bowl

Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State (-20.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS) The Buckeyes are one of two schools who rank in the top five in the FBS in scoring offense (48.8) and scoring defense (6.8). Iowa has an elite run defense (62.8 ypg) – and whether they can slow down the combination of TreVeyon Henderson (8.9 ypg.) Quinshon Judkins (8.3 ypc.) will determine how close this one is in the second half. Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson (8.4 ypc.) faces the same test. Iowa had a bye week to prepare, but they haven’t won in Columbus since 1991 and lost the meeting 54-10 in 2022. 

Pick: Ohio State wins 37-10 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 12 Ole Miss (-9) at South Carolina (3:30 p.m., ESPN) The Rebels are coming off a stunning loss to Kentucky, and now they face the Gamecocks – who had a bye week to prepare and are a tough out at home. Will South Carolina’s pass rush land against Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart – who has a dynamic combination with Tre Harris. This has the potential to get wild in the second half if the Gamecocks can slow down that offense. For the Rebels, it’s about limiting the penalties on the road. If that happens, then they will have a bounce-back here. 

Pick: Ole Miss wins 34-24 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 23 Indiana (-14) at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN) Undefeated Indiana is ranked, and the Hoosiers average 48.8 points per game under first-year coach Curt Cignetti and quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The line has increased by a point from its open, which is an indictment against the Northwestern offense – which averages 12.5 points against Power 4 opponents. Will the quirky home-field dynamic make a difference for the Northwestern defense? The Wildcats are 7-4 ATS as an underdog under David Braun, and this is the defense Indiana has faced to this point. This is a reach and will not be popular, but the Wildcats find a way to cover. 

Pick: Indiana wins 31-19 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.

No. 1 Alabama (-24) at Vanderbilt (4:15 p.m., SEC Network) Alabama is on top of the polls. The Commodores had a bye week, and there is the risk the Crimson Tide has an emotional letdown in the first half. We just don’t see it. Jalen Milroe will continue his Heisman Trophy campaign and will continue the connection with fantastic freshman Ryan Williams – who averages 28.9 yards per catch. Vanderbilt still could sneak in a cover here. Diego Pavia has no interceptions so far and is a good test for the Crimson Tide secondary. Alabama has outscored Vanderbilt 148-3 in the last three meetings. 

Pick: Alabama wins 42-14 and COVERS the spread. 

TROCCHI: Ryan Williams lifts Alabama to classic win over Georgia

No. 15 Clemson (-14.5) at Florida State (7 p.m., ESPN) This was supposed to be a huge game in the ACC race. According to The Inside Zone’s Matt Fortuna, in June Florida State was listed as a four-point favorite in this game. Now, the Seminoles are reduced to a spoiler role against the Tigers. Florida State can’t score. The Seminoles have not scored more than 16 points in their last four games – and they are running into one of the hottest offensive teams in the FBS. Cade Klubnik has increased his passer rating by more than 50 points from last season. Former Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has a chance to upset his former team – but it’s a long-shot at best. It won’t be as bad as the 59-10 blowout in 2018, but Clemson will be in control here, and it might take a late TD to get the cover. 

Pick: Clemson wins 35-14 and COVERS the spread. 

Utah State at No. 21 Boise State (-26.5) (7 p.m., FS2) Boise State is trying to make its case as the best Group of 5 team, and Ashton Jeanty averages 10.3 yards per carry and 13 TDs. Why isn’t he in the Heisman Trophy conversation? This should be a game where he puts up huge numbers against a Utah State defense that ranks 122nd in total defense (455.4 ypg.). The Aggies have allowed 46.5 points per game in road losses to USC and Temple. Do not be afraid of the huge spread. 

Pick: Boise State wins 49-17 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 10 Michigan at Washington (-3) (7:30 p.m., NBC) How is a top-10 team a three-point underdog? It is Michigan’s first road game, and Washington quarterback Will Rogers has 10 TDs and no interceptions. The Huskies will play with tempo, and that will test a Michigan defense that might not have SN Preseason All-American cornerback Will Johnson (shoulder). The Wolverines also have a passing offense that ranks 119th in the FBS. Washington is still one of the most-penalized teams in college football (80.8 ypg.), and the Wolverines can run the ball. The Huskies are a popular pick here. Maybe too popular. 

Pick: Michigan wins 28-21 in an UPSET. 

No. 4 Tennessee (-13.5) at Arkansas (7:30 p.m., ABC) Tennessee had a bye week to prepare for Arkansas. The Vols are the other team in the FBS that ranks in the top five in scoring offense (54.0 ppg.) and scoring defense (7.0 ppg.). Arkansas is coming off a tough road loss, but the Razorbacks are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season. The Razorbacks’ rush defense has been solid this season – but will it hope against a Tennessee attack led by Dylan Sampson – who averages 6.5 yards per carry with 10 TDs? These schools haven’t played since 2020 – and Tennessee hasn’t won in Fayetteville, Ark., since 2001. 

Pick: Tennessee wins 31-17 and COVERS the spread. 

No. 11 USC (-8.5) at Minnesota (7:30 p.m., BTN) The Trojans are back on the road in the Big Ten against the Gophers – who scored three second-half touchdowns in a 27-24 loss to Michigan. Both teams lost to Michigan by identical scores on the road. How will Minnesota’s pass defense – which ranks No. 1 in the FBS at 96.8 yards per game – hold up against the USC offense? Miller Moss is a methodical passer who averages 295.5 passing yards with six TDs and two interceptions in conference play. The Gophers have lost two home games this year – and USC should be able to settle in with a running game led by Woody Marks. 

Pick: USC wins 31-21 and COVERS the spread. 

Baylor at No. 16 Iowa State (-13) (7:30 p.m., Fox) Four of the last five meetings between these schools have been decided by one score, and the road team has won the last five meetings. Does that hold for Baylor? The offense found momentum with quarterback Sawyer Robertson, but how much success will they have against a nasty defense that is allowing just 7.3 points per game with a plus-7 turnover margin? Iowa State continues an underrated playoff campaign, but the Bears will hang around into the second half in this Big 12 matchup.  

Pick: Iowa State wins 24-14 but FAILS TO COVER the spread. 

No. 8 Miami (-12.5) at Cal (10:30 p.m., ESPN) ESPN’s “College GameDay” is at Cal for the first time ever, and that is going to generate excitement for a program that is allowing just 12.8 points per game. The Golden Bears won at Auburn and played close at Florida State – but they are catching the hottest quarterback in the FBS in Cameron Ward – who averages 356.4 passing yards per game. Ward made starts against Cal while with Washington State – and he averages 348.5 passing yards with six TDs and three interceptions in those games. If the Hurricanes limit the turnovers, they will be fine here. 

Pick: Miami wins 35-16 and COVERS the spread.