Sam Darnold’s MVP Odds Cannot Be Ignored
Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images.
It’s no longer a “Hey, that’s kind of a cool story” theory regarding Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold.
Sam Darnold’s MVP Odds Cannot Be Ignored
Through four weeks of NFL action, Darnold is a Top 3 contender to win the league’s MVP award, per sportsbooks.
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Last week, after Darnold delivered a 3-touchdown performance at home versus the Houston Texans, Darnold-for-MVP chatter poked out of the NFL media machine but still remained a fringe theory. However, following the Vikings’ win over the Green Bay Packers on the road — accompanied by 3 more touchdown passes — Darnold as an MVP candidate is legitimate.
With a Week 5 showdown for Minnesota against the New York Jets looming, these are the league’s MVP frontrunners:
Patrick Mahomes: +240
Josh Allen: +260
Sam Darnold: +1000
C.J. Stroud: +1000
Lamar Jackson: +1100
Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images.
Darnold’s role in the win over Green Bay proved instrumental, delivering 20 completions on 28 attempts for 275 yards, the 3 scores, and 1 interception. He fired off a 72.7 QBR and 123.4 passer rating. Meanwhile, in 2024 on the whole, Darnold leads the NFL in touchdown passes (11) and ranks third per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added.
The numbers are there; so are the team wins. Minnesota’s defense ranks second in the NFL per EPA/Play, only trailing the Seattle Seahawks, a team that takes on the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. There’s a decent chance that the Vikings’ defense leads the way per EPA/Play by Tuesday morning. Defense shouldn’t matter in a quarterback’s race for MVP, but it does, as voters take notice of a team’s record and transform it into a “quarterback record.”
John Jones-Imagn Images.
Darnold said after Sunday’s win, “Our attacking schemes, on offense, defense, special teams, and then the players we’ve got, it’s a really good formula for success in this league, but at the end of the day we believe in each other more than anyone else believes in us. It’s a really good formula.”
The reclamation quarterback also mentioned his ardor for head coach Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings organization: “I love playing for Kevin. He’s been everything to me. He’s helped me so much in my short time here. I’m glad I made the decision to come here. He’s definitely a special coach.”
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images
No Vikings player has won the MVP award since Adrian Peterson in 2012, and in fact, no non-quarterback has taken home the trophy since Peterson twelve years ago. It’s become a quarterback award.
Former Minnesota passer Kirk Cousins has +5000 odds to take home the league’s most prized individual achievement down in Atlanta.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
