Bleacher Report’s 2024-25 Bowl Projections Entering Week 6

Bleacher Report’s 2024-25 Bowl Projections Entering Week 60 of 5

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It only took one week.

We kicked off Bleacher Report’s bowl projections with a basic warning: Things are going to change. That was neither revelatory nor surprising, given how early we are in the 2024 college football season.

And it only took one week. Ole Miss and Utah, a pair of teams slotted into College Football Playoff spots, lost.

As a result, one of those two schools have dropped out of the predicted CFP field. Among other key adjustments, Georgia has fallen from its place as the SEC’s automatic representative after the loss to Alabama.

The picks are subjective but based on official tie-ins while observing all selection processes and contingencies.

Group of 5 Games1 of 5

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Camellia Bowl (Dec. 14): Eastern Michigan vs. James Madison
New Orleans Bowl (Dec. 19): Western Kentucky vs. Texas State
Cure Bowl (Dec. 20): Central Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Myrtle Beach Bowl (Dec. 23): East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Buffalo vs. Colorado State
Hawai’i Bowl (Dec. 24): Liberty vs. Fresno State
68Ventures (Dec. 26): Jacksonville State vs. Georgia State
New Mexico Bowl (Dec. 28): North Texas vs. Nevada
Arizona Bowl (Dec. 28): Toledo vs. San Jose State
Bahamas Bowl (Jan. 4): Sam Houston vs. Northern Illinois

Trending Up: Eastern Michigan Eagles

In all likelihood, a number crunch will sting the Group of Five. It’s unlikely a power-conference team wouldn’t be invited to a bowl. Eastern Michigan is close to playing itself out of that nervous territory, taking a 4-1 record into October. Whether the Eagles will compete for a MAC title will start to be answered after an idle weekend; EMU’s next two outings are home to Miami (Ohio) and Central Michigan.

Trending Down: Texas State Bobcats

Texas State squandered an 18-point lead in a 40-39 loss to Sam Houston. As a result, the Bobcats enter Sun Belt action with a thinned margin for error. They remain a strong bowl contender but need to avoid slipping Thursday night on short rest at Troy.

G5 vs. P4 Matchups2 of 5

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Frisco Bowl (Dec. 17): South Florida vs. Arizona State
Boca Raton Bowl (Dec. 18): Georgia State vs. North Carolina State
LA Bowl (Dec. 18): UNLV vs. Washington State
Detroit Bowl (Dec. 26): Miami (Ohio) vs. Wisconsin
Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 27): Tulane vs. TCU
Fenway Bowl (Dec. 28): Memphis vs. Virginia Tech
Military Bowl (Dec. 28): Navy vs. Syracuse
Independence Bowl (Dec. 28): Army vs. Oregon State
First Responder (Jan. 3): UTSA vs. West Virginia

Trending Up: Army Black Knights

In their first season as members of the AAC, the Black Knights are competing not only for bowl eligibility but even a league title. While that conversation can happen right now, we’ll reserve this space for noting that Army is positioned well to land a postseason invite for the first time since 2021.

Trending Down: UTSA Roadrunners

Sticking in the AAC, the outlook is worsening for UTSA. Panic isn’t necessary, but the Roadrunners need to capitalize on the upcoming stretch of Rice, FAU and Tulsa following their idle weekend. Otherwise, a four-year postseason streak will end.

Power 4 Bowls, Part I3 of 5

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Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 20): Cal vs. Maryland
Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Dec. 26): Rutgers vs. Texas Tech
Birmingham Bowl (Dec. 27): Georgia Tech vs. Michigan State
Liberty Bowl (Dec. 27): UCF vs. Kentucky
Holiday Bowl (Dec. 27): SMU vs. Utah
Las Vegas Bowl (Dec. 27): Arizona vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe Bowl (Dec. 28): Boston College vs. Illinois
Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 28): Notre Dame vs. BYU
Alamo Bowl (Dec. 28): Kansas State vs. USC

Trending Up: BYU Cougars

Last season, the program won five games. This season, the Cougars matched the mark by the end of September. The schedule picks up following an idle weekend. BYU hosts conferences foes Arizona and Oklahoma State in the middle of the month.

Trending Down: Utah Utes

The asterisk of Cameron Rising’s health followed Utah all offseason, and this was exactly why. When he’s healthy, the Utes are a serious CFP contender. If not, well, that—a 23-10 loss to Arizona—can happen. I wouldn’t bump Utah out of the projected playoff field if we knew Rising would return from a finger injury, but that timing is still unclear.

Power 4 Bowls, Part II4 of 5

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Music City Bowl (Dec. 30): Nebraska vs. Arkansas
ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31): Indiana vs. Oklahoma
Sun Bowl (Dec. 31): Duke vs. Colorado
Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Michigan vs. Missouri
Texas Bowl (Dec. 31): Oklahoma State vs. South Carolina
Gator Bowl (Jan. 2): Louisville vs. LSU
Mayo Bowl (Jan. 3): Pitt vs. Iowa

Trending Up: Indiana Hoosiers

I loved the Curt Cignetti hire, but even I wasn’t expecting Indiana to look this good this soon into his tenure. Quite literally, the Hoosiers can become the nation’s first team to secure bowl eligibility if they defeat Northwestern this weekend. Pretty good after a 3-9 season, no?

Trending Down: Arkansas Razorbacks

Oof. Needed that one, Hogs. Texas A&M scored a fourth-quarter touchdown to slide past Arkansas 21-17. Had the Razorbacks held on, they would’ve been 4-1 with Mississippi State and Louisiana Tech remaining on the slate. Now, they’ll need to upset one of Tennessee, LSU, Ole Miss, Texas or Missouri to reach six wins. Four of those matchups (not Mizzou) are at home, so it’s doable—and also, difficult.

College Football Playoff5 of 5

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First-Round Byes

The five highest-ranked conference champions (*) will automatically earn a CFP berth, and the four highest-ranked of that group will be placed in the quarterfinals. While this quartet is assumed to be from the Power 4 (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC), that’s not guaranteed.

No. 1: Texas*, SEC champion in Sugar Bowl
No. 2: Oregon*, Big Ten champion in Rose Bowl
No. 3: Miami*, ACC champion in Peach Bowl
No. 4: Iowa State*, Big 12 champion in Fiesta Bowl

First-Round Games

No. 12 Boise State* (MWC champion) at No. 5 Alabama (winner to Fiesta Bowl)
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Ohio State (winner to Peach Bowl)
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Georgia (winner to Rose Bowl)
No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Tennessee (winner to Sugar Bowl)

Stock Up: Alabama Crimson Tide

Thanks to the dramatic win over Georgia, Alabama has zoomed atop the national rankings. Most importantly, that victory gave the Crimson Tide a major step toward a CFP berth. They still have Tennessee, Missouri and LSU on the docket, but few resumes will be able to match Bama’s best victory. Beat at least two more of those SEC opponents, and the Tide will likely be headed to the SEC Championship Game, too.

Stock Down: Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss hadn’t been tested all season, and it struggled to find the right answers in a loss to Kentucky. Georgia looms on the schedule in November, so upcoming back-to-back trips to South Carolina and LSU are particularly valuable for the Rebels.