Football 301 Playbook: 4 weeks into season, here are NFL’s top standouts (welcome back, running backs!) and slumps (c’mon, Browns)

We are at the de facto quarter pole of the NFL season. And just like every NFL season, there have been standouts, surprises, slumps and everything in between (it’s why it’s the best). On this week’s Football 301 Playbook, I wanted to highlight the winners and surprises of this maturing 2024 season.

NFL quarter pole winnersSpecifically teams that have real deal stars at the position who can, preferably, handle every snap if need be. The Eagles and Ravens got Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry, respectively, and have so far reaped the benefits.

It’s evident in:

The eye test of seeing Henry and Barkley stampede for long touchdowns, which is sure hard to forget

Box score stats that show they are both in the top three in individual rushing yards

Advanced stats that show both teams are tied for first in rushing yards over expected per carry on running back runs at 2.1 yards per carry. That’s an improvement from the Ravens’ marks of 0.6 and the Eagles’ -0.2 in 2023.

Josh Jacobs helped the Packers’ foray with Malik Willis be a fun footnote for the season, with those games even influencing Green Bay’s attack going forward as I saw some Swing-T action against the Vikings with Jacobs and wide receiver Jayden Reed, who is emerging as a difference-making player with the ball in his hands. He’s very, very good.

Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson look great as the primary drivers of their offenses. Aaron Jones has added a new element to the Vikings. Brian Robinson looks big and at times like the fastest player on the field in the Commanders’ up-tempo attack.

Then there’s Alvin Kamara, the duo in Detroit, Jordan Mason holding the fort in Santa Clara, the Bills’ run game, the crisp technique that Kyren Williams runs the ball with.

Hiding tendencies is as important as ever in the NFL with coaches having more access to data when scouting opponents. A running back who can impact the game as a runner, receiver and blocker, and thus stay on the field, has an impact for game planning purposes, too. Teams are going to test their opponents’ run defense, and a talented running back helps shore up any issues you might have up front (like with Robinson in Atlanta), while also boosting the advantages you already have (like in Philadelphia with offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland and the Eagles’ O-line, and Baltimore and Lamar Jackson sharing the same backfield).

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Nico CollinsIs 489 yards through four weeks good?

Collins took a leap in 2023 and continues to soar in 2024. His mind meld with C.J. Stroud shines every week and has earned weekly appointment viewing status.

Collins is a bona fide X wide receiver, an explosive iteration of a throwback type of wide receiver with vertical route tree that doesn’t need motion to help him get open. Collins has the combination of size, speed (he has recorded the fastest top speed by a ball carrier this season at 21.89 MPH on a 55-yard haul in Week 1 , according to NextGenStats) and ball skills that maximizes space and creative throw angles for Stroud, who has no qualms with using them. His ability to sink and speed out of routes opens up the entire route tree for Collins to run. And the Texans are smartly using him to attack the intermediate parts of the field over and over again.

(NFL NextGen Stats)

Collins isn’t just a top-10 wide receiver, he’s knocking on the door with the big “E” on it. This is a top-five, All-Pro worthy player who should be viewed as elite without even glancing at any box score stats.

Everything that’s going on in MinnesotaPick whichever part you want. A 4-0 start. League leaders in point differential. Sam Darnold is steering the ship, sometimes right into rocks (3 INTs, 4 fumbles), but sometimes he’s coasting around the waters of Lake Minnetonka.

The Vikings have had very positive game scripts this season, which has helped them stick to using play-action on a good chunk of their snaps, with head coach Kevin O’Connell using screens to keep the defense stressed and finding constant answers in the various high-leverage situations that come up in an NFL game like in the red zone (Vikings rank eighth in red-zone efficiency) and third down.

The run game with Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler is explosive and efficient, and stacks up among the game’s best. And that is without having to rely on using Darnold for any designed runs … yet. (Darnold has picked up a few first downs as a scrambler.)

Justin Jefferson is Justin Jefferson, the game’s best receiver whom O’Connell loves to use as a threat at all times. Any time the Packers blinked and put more players in the box and dared to run man coverage this past Sunday, O’Connell and the Vikings had a play ready to rip off another chunk gain.

Vikings motion Justin Jefferson across the formation and get plenty of man coverage indicators (safety rotating down to the TE, press CBs, CB traveling with Jefferson).

Darnold checks into a play action play that gets Jefferson running away from the CBs leverage. pic.twitter.com/scbgthzwog

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 30, 2024

Elsewhere in the receiving corps, Jordan Addison looked great in his first game back from injury. Jalen Nailor has had some promising moments but still needs to clean up details, with his role cranking down a bit with the return of Addison and the Vikings’ ability to play out of two tight end or fullback looks (which might be best to streamline things for Nailor).

The offensive line has weakness in pass protection along the interior but O’Connell moves the pocket enough to help mitigate it. Again, positive game scripts help. And Darnold has been doing a strong job of promptly getting the ball out.

The defense is unique and can help the offense jump out to leads and maintain positive game scripts. The Packers showed that there are answers to the Vikings if you trust your protection (and quarterback) to hold up as Brian Flores sends his defenders and specters alike at the pass and into coverage. That’s easier said than done, especially when the offense keeps finding answers like this.

The NFC North is the NFL’s best division. The Vikings, Packers and Lions are among the conference’s best teams, and the Bears wield a tough defense, the world’s most dangerous punter in Tory Taylor and an offense that looks like it’s starting to trim some fat from the glut of ideas that the Bears had to begin the season. (One more idea is fewer D’Andre Swift touches and more Roschon Johnson touches to help the offense stay on track.)

Darnold has been a surprise, but the Vikings have shown sustainability on early downs, on both sides, with the ability to crank the dials with their pass rush and Darnold’s sheer ability to get the ball to Jefferson. That’s been a winning formula and it remains up to other teams to step up and slow it down.

Geno SmithHe’s just been a joy to watch. I’ve written about it a little bit the past few weeks, but Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has given Smith control of the joystick and is letting him go. No stats or charts here. Just had to give Smith and his unapologetic grip-it-and-rip-it style a shoutout.

NFL quarter pole surprisesChargers’ general competencyOutside the Chiefs, who still get the honorary title, the Chargers haven’t exactly played a murderer’s row of offenses to start the season. But they’re getting the job done and look like they have a higher baseline of play than expected under new defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.

The Chargers’ underlying metrics are glowing. They sit first in combined defensive success rate and opponent explosive play rate allowed on early downs. It’s a slog to move the ball on this defense.

In Week 4, the Chiefs started to find their way with some play-action chunk plays and on runs late, but the Chargers didn’t make it easy on them. And they did it with their personnel playing within themselves in coverage, as well.

I still have issues with some of the offensive design. Justin Herbert seemed a bit displeased with the time Greg Roman took to relay the calls, too. But there are pieces of a good run game here, especially if the offensive line can return to full health. Quentin Johnston is playing the best football of his young career and Ladd McConkey has already earned the trust of Herbert and looks explosive with and without the ball in his hands, and is sitting on a breakout game soon.

I’m not surprised that Jim Harbaugh has been able to focus the Chargers and their loose assembly of stars. They don’t have a full roster to make real noise but they’re going to be competitive every week, a tough out with a quarterback still capable of going nuclear at any moment.

Commanders offenseWe all saw this coming, right? The Commanders, not the Chiefs, Bills, Dolphins, Ravens or 49ers, are the ones on a record-setting offensive pace through four weeks of the season.

While that scoring pace will slow down, the Commanders’ own pace won’t. Their opening drive against the Cardinals in Week 4 featured the Commanders marching their way down the field, almost all out of hurry-up, no-huddle looks that had the Cardinals looking every which way.

The Commanders opening drive, mostly no huddle, capped off with four runs, all (technically) different concepts, all out of different formation families. Including a snap of Counter out of Wildcat. pic.twitter.com/WS4FDmzxWL

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 1, 2024

It sure looks like the Commanders’ offensive baseline will be high this year. They’ll give slacking defenses, and groups without speed, tons of issues. And that’s with a rookie quarterback and several other new faces on the roster. Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury leaned heavily into run plays with bubbles and other receiver screens early in the season, to much groaning from the football Twitter community. But he has been tweaking the offense with more verticality, shot plays and a dropback passing game that’s right in Jayden Daniels’ wheelhouse; my favorite throw of his as a professional came on a classic Air Raid concept known as Y-Cross to fellow rookie Luke McCaffrey.

The run game looks varied and real, with the Commanders’ ability to get to a full menu of runs out of no-huddle looks being a weapon against defenses that are used to dictating against offenses these days. Brian Robinson has looked great on the wide assortment of run concepts, able to run between the tackles with his size and strength, with plenty of juice to get to the edge. He was even featured in a Wildcat formation against the Cardinals.

Daniels has been accurate and has made a lot of smart decisions, which combined with the efficient run game has made the Commanders difficult to keep off the field. He hasn’t taken too many rough hits yet despite scrambling at the highest rate in recorded history through the first four weeks of the season, which is a credit to his speed, the lanes he finds and the Commanders’ offensive line doing a nice job with sorting out pass protection. An efficient thrower who can create explosive plays on third down with his legs is going to be an absolute headache for defensive coordinators. Ask Giants defensive coordinator Shane Bowen how third down went in Week 2 against the Commanders. (Spoiler: Washington converted 50% of them, and most teams hover well below that number.)

The defense, especially the adventures the unit likes to take while covering the pass, is a different story. Get ready for plenty of high-scoring affairs involving the football team in Washington this season. (I wanted to make a shootout/Washington Bullets joke here.)

Browns’ general blahThis offense is not fun to watch. It’s been decimated by injuries, and while Jerome Ford is a solid back, he is not quite Nick Chubb to make things all better. Deshaun Watson is a non-factor, overmatched behind a battered line and throwing and processing at a replacement level. The defense has lost its spark from last year’s performance that decimated overmatched quarterbacks and offensive lines. This has disappointed me after how fast and ferocious they were during long stretches of 2023.

The Browns might bring the fight to the high-flying Commanders offense this weekend, but right now they look and feel more like a defense that’s middle of the pack (and they are, metrics-wise), and not the fear-inducing unit featuring Myles Garrett and 10 other banshees.

Injuries stink. I just want to see more life out of this team that has looked listless for stretches of this season. Something has to happen and I know exactly where I’m looking at for a change.

Broncos defenseWhat a revelation the new Orange Crush has been in their second year under defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.

Zach Allen continues to wreck games and Nik Bonitto has had moments getting after the passer. Meanwhile, Pat Surtain II has a viable case as a frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year as he turned DK Metcalf (29 receiving yards allowed), George Pickens (16), Mike Evans (8) and Garrett Wilson (22) into non-factors while singling them all up in coverage for large swaths of the game.

The other Broncos cornerbacks have stepped up, too. Riley Moss has emerged as a strong No. 2 cornerback opposite of Surtain and is equally up for his weekly man coverage assignments.

Ja’Quan McMillan is feisty in the slot and Joseph’s blitz-happy scheme lets his players play fast and take the challenge to the offense. The Broncos currently sit fourth in success rate allowed and first in explosive plays allowed. That’s wildly impressive given that the Broncos lead the NFL in blitz rate at a hysterical 45.5%.

Bo Nix and the offense will get plenty of attention, but make sure to watch this Broncos defense that’s suffocating opponents.