Vikings Might Be “All or Nothing” in 2024
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The Minnesota Vikings have played dominantly through five games of the 2024 regular season, trailing opponents on the scoreboard for less than four minutes altogether.
Vikings Might Be “All or Nothing” in 2024
Heading into the year, most expected Minnesota to win six or seven games, but after the aforementioned dominance, oddsmakers have rapidly whisked the purple team into a Top 8 Super Bowl-contending tier. They might be that damn good.
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However, based on Vikings history, the 2024 team might be all or nothing — either utterly collapsing and missing the postseason or taking a trip all the way to the NFC Championship. That’s how Vikings operations have gone amid undefeated starts to seasons in the last few decades.
Star Tribune’s Andrew Krammer tweeted Monday, one day after Minnesota downed the New York Jets in London: “This is the Vikings’ sixth 5-0 start since 1990, the most by any NFL franchise in that 35-year span per Pro Football Reference. But six teams started 5-0 and missed the playoffs, and the Vikings are the only organization to do that twice: ’03, ’16. Lost NFC title game in ’98, ’00, ’09.”
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So, here’s the historical state of play:
Vikings’ 5-0 Starts
Since 1990,
Season Outcome:
1998 = Lost NFC Championship
2000 = Lost NFC Championship
2003 = Missed Playoffs
2009 = Lost NFC Championship
2016 = Missed Playoffs
2024 = To Be Determined
Put plainly, Minnesota has no middle ground when starting hot. They egregiously faceplant, beginning in a few weeks on the calendar. Or they ride the wave all the way to one stop before the Super Bowl. Obviously, all fans will hope for the latter and a possible ticket punch to February. Conversely, no man or woman over the age of eight would be too flabbergasted by a meltdown.
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Thankfully, Minnesota has a championship defense on its hands through Week 5. The case is open and shut. Heading into Week 6, a bye for Minnesota, Brian Flores’ defense ranks first in the NFL per DVOA and EPA/Play through five games. The group is that good.
The quarterback, too, is doing his part. Darnold ranks second in the NFL in touchdown passes exiting Week 5 and 10th per EPA+CPOE, an efficiency metric measuring expected wins added, notably outpacing signal-callers like Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott. The rub on him will be sustainability and how he bounces back from a blah performance in London, but generally speaking, Darnold can probably guide this club to a deep postseason run.
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If Vikings history is a reasonable indicator, Darnold will either be the guy to guide Minnesota to its first NFC Championship in seven years — or become “just another Sam” like Bradford in the 2016 campaign.
There has been no in-between since 1990 when a purple team started this hot.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His Vikings obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
