Historical Math for Vikings at 5-0
Peter Brouillet-USA TODAY NETWORK.
Through five games, the Minnesota Vikings have the seventh-best odds to win Super Bowl LIX and a 5-0 record, notably surpassing the Philadelphia Eagles’ odds last weekend after toppling the New York Jets in London.
Historical Math for Vikings at 5-0
Minnesota is no stranger to starting a season 5-0, accomplishing the feat five times since 1990.
But historically, this is how teams have fared since 1990 when starting 5-0. The year 1990 was used because that’s when the NFL began allowing Wildcard teams.
This is the math.
55% Lose in Playoffs before Super Bowl
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) celebrates a touchdown catch with wide receiver A.J. Green (18) against the Minnesota Vikings during the first quarter in Glendale on Sept. 19, 2021. © Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK.
Most 5-0 teams reach the postseason — 91% reach the tournament — but lose before qualifying for the Super Bowl. The most recent examples:
2023 Philadelphia Eagles
2021 Arizona Cardinals
2020 Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 Tenneessee Titans
2020 Seattle Seahawks
If you’re a student of Vikings history, this could be the most likely outcome. Get there — but lose before the big game.
36% Reached the Super Bowl
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports.
Twenty-one percent reached the Super Bowl — and lost.
Beginning a season 5-0 and later losing the Super Bowl is quite popular recently. The last six examples:
2023 San Francisco 49ers
2022 Philadelphia Eagles
2019 San Francisco 49ers
2018 Los Angeles Rams
2015 Carolina Panthers
2013 Denver Broncos
And because the Kansas City Chiefs seem hellbent on more dynastic activity, maybe this is Minnesota’s fate in 2024.
14% Won Super Bowl
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports.
Strangely, the last team to start 5-0 and win the Super Bowl was the 2015 Denver Broncos, led by a tandem at quarterback of Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.
Before that, the 2009 New Orleans Saints — Vikings fans know and loath that team — won the chip following a 5-0 start. The 2006 Indianapolis Colts and 2004 New England Patriots got the job done during this millennium.
In the 21st Century, if a team wishes to start 5-0, it evidently needs or needed a Manning, Brees, or Brady to win it all.
9% Missed Playoffs Altogether
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
The naughty category indeed, the Vikings inhabited this group twice — in 2003 (started 6-0) and 2016 (started 5-0). If you want to know why a Vikings fan might be hesitant to endorse this current spurt with a loud throat, it’s because of the 2003 and 2016 teams.
In fact, Minnesota was the last franchise to start a season with a 5-0 record and totally miss the postseason. The 2015 Atlanta Falcons also did it but reached the Super Bowl a year later before another famous collapse.
These are the non-playoff 5-0 teams of the last 34 years:
1993 New Orleans Saints
2003 Minnesota Vikings
2009 Denver Broncos
2009 New York Giants
2015 Atlanta Falcons
2016 Minnesota Vikings
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.Â
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
