Preview: Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka-to-head, Wuhan Open

Sports Mole previews Saturday’s Wuhan Open semi-final match between Coco Gauff and Magda Linette, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Seeking a second successive trip to the final of a WTA event, Coco Gauff takes on Aryna Sabalenka in the first semi-final of the Wuhan Open on Saturday.

The 20-year-old American ousted Magda Linette in her quarter-final match 6-0 6-4, while the top-seeded Sabalenka defeated Magdalena Frech in straight sets as well, 6-2 6-2.

Match preview
© Imago

The Wuhan Open has looked like a cakewalk for Coco Gauff so far, as she has yet to lose a set and needed a mere one hour 24 minutes to dispose of Linette in the last eight.

In doing so, she became the third American to make the semi-finals of this tournament after Venus Williams (2015) and Alison Riske (2019), both of whom advanced to the final.

While Gauff never lost serve in her quarter-final fixture, she struck eight double faults but managed to save all five of her break points.

Perhaps the biggest concern at the moment is her second serve, winning fewer than 50% of her second serves at this tournament, going 4/13 in the first set of her quarter-final match.

Gauff has won nine consecutive singles matches on the WTA tour while winning her previous four encounters relatively quickly, in straight sets.

Saturday will be her eighth appearance in the semi-finals of a WTA tournament this year, while she has only won two of those matches, defeating Emma Navarro at the ASB Classic in January and eliminating Paula Badosa at this stage of the China Open.

After a couple of difficult opening matches, Sabalenka had no trouble in her quarter-final fixture, needing one hour 23 minutes to claim victory.

Before that, she had narrowly beaten Katerina Siniakova in two tight sets before coming from a set behind to defeat Yulia Putintseva.

On Thursday, Sabalenka fired 42 winners in a mere 16 games to propel her into the semi-finals of a WTA tournament for the third time in her last four appearances.

Wuhan has been good to the Belorussian throughout her career, having never lost there in 15 previous matches there, and she will feature in her eighth semi-final this year.

She has won her last two semi-final matches on tour in straight sets since losing at this stage of the Mubadala Citi DC Open to Marie Bouzkova in three sets.

Throughout the year, Sabalenka has been strong on serve, winning 71% of her first serves and winning 80.2% of her service games in 2024.

Tournament so far
Coco Gauff:

Round of 32: vs. Viktoriya Tomova 6-1 6-2

Round of 16: vs. Marta Kostyuk 6-4 6-1

Quarter-finals: vs. Magdalena Fench 6-2 6-2

Aryna Sabalenka:

Round of 32: vs. Katerina Siniakova 6-4 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Yulia Putintseva 1-6 6-4 6-4

Quarter-finals: vs. Magdalena Fench 6-2 6-2

Head To Head
The Top Seed Open (2020) – Second Round: Gauff wins 7-6 4-6 6-4

J&T Banka Ostrava Open (2020) – Second Round: Sabalenka wins 1-6 7-5 7-6

Internazional BNA D’Italia (2021) – Third Round: Gauff wins 7-5 6-3

National Bank Open (2022) – Third Round: Gauff wins 7-5 4-6 7-6

BNP Paribas Open (2023) – Quarter-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-4 6-0

US Open (2023) – Final: Gauff wins 2-6 6-3 6-2

Australian Open (2024) – Semi-finals: Sabalenka wins 7-6 6-4

Recently, these two have become accustomed to meeting in the later rounds, with Sabalenka winning their quarter-final match at the BNP Paribas Open thanks in large part to the 87% she boasted on first serves.

In the US Open final at Arthur Ashe Stadium last year, Gauff overcame an opening set loss, winning five of her nine break points to win the title on home soil.

When they met at Rod Laver Arena at the Aussie Open at the start of the year, Gauff hit eight double faults, with Sabalenka winning 76% of her first serves and Gauff only winning 57% of hers.

We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets
Sabalenka knows this surface well, and overall, she has not been prone to making as many mistakes when on serve as Gauff, which is why we project a narrow victory for her in this match.

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