Caleb Williams vs. Trevor Lawrence: How Bears rookie QB can avoid veteran funk of Jaguars’ No. 1 pick

Caleb Williams is already looking like a much better No. 1 overall pick than predecessor Bryce Young, but there is some concern the Bears rookie might be headed more down the QB path of Trevor Lawrence than Joe Burrow.

Lawrence had a rough rookie season under Urban Meyer before turning the corner as a sophomore, but over the past two seasons, there seems to be regression in his play to the point of disappointment. 

Burrow tore his ACL to cut short his rookie season before he broke out in Years 2 and 3, leading the Bengals to the playoffs and an AFC championship. Back to full health, he’s playing at a high level despite his team having the same 1-4 record as Lawrence’s Jaguars 

Williams has had a typical rookie up-and-down start through his first five career games in Chicago. He’s completing only 62.9 percent of his passes with five TDs to four INTs, being reined in with a 6.4 yards per attempt and 81.4 passer rating. He was terrible early against the Titans and Texans, but over the past two weeks in home wins against the Rams and Panthers, he’s been exceptional.

Here’s what the Bears and Williams can learn from Lawrence to avoid the young veteran roller-coaster in the future and keep him on an upward trajectory.

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Find and stick with an offensive identity for Caleb WilliamsThe Bears have been a bit all over the place with Shane Waldron, the former Seahawks offensive coordinator who didn’t click with Russell Wilson but found a real groove with Geno Smith. Williams is a lot like Smith in terms of being a preferred pocket passer, but he also has the mobility to take off and run for key gains when needed. 

The Seahawks, without Waldron, have become the league’s pass-happiest offense in 2024 under OC Ryan Grubb. The Bears are middle of the pack, throwing 57.4 percent of the time. They have the No. 29 rushing offense and the No. 22 passing offense. They are No. 16 in scoring offense, however, at 23.6 points per game.

There’s no doubt Waldron was wary of unleashing Williams with downfield passes early, but that changed when DJ Moore exploded vs. the Panthers in Week 5. That also means fellow rookie Rome Odunze will get more necessary chances to stretch the field with Williams soon.

Based on their weapons, including Moore, Odunze, wide receiver Keenan Allen, tight end Cole Kmet, and backfield receiving star D’Andre Swift, the Bears should lean into passing more aggressively. In Seattle last season, Waldron called for passes 61.6 percent of the time, No. 5 in the league.

The Bears’ defense is also built better to stop the pass than the run. That would suggest wanting to attack teams early to build a lead, allowing their pass rush-pop and young coverage aces to work more in a positive game script in the second half. The Bears need to raise the level of complementary football by passing more, not less, with Williams growing in confidence.

The Jaguars have been pretty much 60-40 with Lawrence passing vs. running. The Bears, given their rushing issues, should not hold back from trusting Williams on more dropbacks because he has proved he can handle it. They have also been all over the place with focusing of the passing game and running game, perhaps trying to work in too many players.

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Be fine with Caleb Williams finding his most comfortable personnelThe Jaguars had the right idea with Lawrence when they added slot ace Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram into the mix before his second season. He liked working to the middle of the field to those guys, but then he was thrown off by the team’s forced usage of Calvin Ridley outside last season. This year, he’s learning to get back on track there, not forcing it to speedy Gabe Davis but rather embracing rookie Brian Thomas Jr. more.

Williams and Allen were supposed to have chemistry, but with the latter’s early injury issues at age 32, there shouldn’t be any force-feeding him. Plus, Moore and Swift can help consistently with their after-the-catch work, and Kmet has some field-stretching capacity. On top of not settling for extended handoff-type passes to Allen, the Bears don’t need to be worried about trying to get big plays to Odunze in matchups when they’re not available.

The Jaguars’ secondary is so bad that it should allow Williams to have success with all of his wide receivers in Week 6, so going to 65 percent passing in London isn’t a bad idea. But it seems like getting Williams into a groove on short-to-intermediate passing to Allen is the clear gateway for opening up things more for Odunze. The Bears have streamlined their targets to Moore, Kmet, and Swift the past two weeks, and that’s been key in Williams’ much improved passing results.

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Keep some continuity for Caleb Williams, but also be prepared to adjustThe Bears. like the Jaguars, were smart to invest in good offensive skill and line personnel to boost their QB early, but they need to be wary of changing things up too much. Williams is just getting going with Waldron, and if the Bears can break through as a wild-card playoff team for defensive-minded Matt Eberflus, that relationship will stay intact for Year 2.

Lawrence’s rookie season was a wash, his only under Meyer and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. Although replacement Press Taylor has helped him, along with offensive-minded coach Doug Pederson, they don’t really move off what worked initially by moving players around. Ridley was a good example last season, where their failure to mix up his alignment once fellow starting outside receiver Zay Jones got hurt led to Lawrence fizzling with Ridley.

The Bears have a good baseline on paper for lifting Williams, but as they see different parts of his game develop, including his accuracy downfield, they might need to pivot more to getting Odunze going early to open up the offense. The Bears also need to stop discouraging Williams from running, even as he gets more comfortable as a passer. The Jaguars could embrace that part of Lawrence’s game more and give him autonomy to take off, especially in the red zone.

The Bears were well prepared for Williams, and they will see more returns from that during his rookie season. They will now need to keep adjusting to help him blossom as an elite passer by the end of his rookie contract.