Yankees World Series Failure Leaves Door Wide-Open for Juan Soto Exit in Free Agency

Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images

The City of Angels may only be one day away from ascending to Heaven, while it already feels like New York is in the other place.

Lest anyone think it can’t get worse, just imagine how it’ll feel if Juan Soto leaves.

It is neither overly doomy and gloomy nor premature to be thinking ahead about Soto’s upcoming trip to the free-agent market. Such is the harsh reality in which the Yankees now find themselves in the World Series against the Dodgers, as a 4-2 loss in Game 3 at Yankee Stadium on Monday has them in a 3-0 hole.

MLB @MLBTHE @DODGERS TAKE A 3-0 #WORLDSERIES LEAD! pic.twitter.com/aVEAffNtSd

The Yankees, of all teams, know how hard it is to climb out of this particular hole.

They were on the losing end of a 3-0 comeback in 2004 when the Boston Red Sox pulled off a kinda-sorta-very famous rally in the American League Championship Series. It was the first 3-0 comeback in a best-of-seven series at the time, and still is 20 years later.

“It ain’t over ’til it’s over,” as the late, great Yogi Berra purportedly said. And the Yankees are indeed capable of winning four in a row, especially if Aaron Judge finally shows up.

But for the Yankees to pull it off, they’ll have to prove to Soto and the world at large that they’re something that they’re very clearly not: A better team than the Dodgers.

The Yankees Are Getting Outclassed, Plain and Simple

Just for kicks, let’s list Yankees who are not to blame for the club’s predicament.

There’s Gerrit Cole, who gave them six one-run innings in Game 1. And Giancarlo Stanton, who had a go-ahead homer in that game and is 4-for-13 for the series.

And then there’s Soto himself. He did have a defensive miscue in Game 1, but he followed that with a game-tying homer in Game 2. He’s otherwise been the Yankees’ most consistent source of good at-bats going 3-for-10 with three walks.

But that’s…yeah, that’s pretty much it.

Dunking on Judge is akin to flogging a dead horse at this point, but it continues to be unavoidable. In the regular season, he’s an all-time great hitter to the tune of a 1.010 OPS. In the postseason, he’s an all-time bad one to the tune of a .196 batting average.

It’s only getting worse for the 2022 AL MVP, as Judge is now 1-for-12 with seven strikeouts in the World Series. His level of coldness is such that even harmless fly balls momentarily fill people with gleeful hope.

Talkin’ Yanks @TalkinYanks”There it GOES” -John Sterling on Aaron Judge’s routine fly ball pic.twitter.com/nnTOE3Rfzq

Though Soto indeed played a big role by way of .989 OPS and 41 home runs, nobody did more than Judge to get the Yankees to 94 wins this season. He hit 58 home runs and drove home 144, with the Yankees going 39-14 on days he left the yard.

Unfortunately, the Yankees truly needed that much from Judge to paper over flaws that are in plain sight right now.

Whereas the Dodgers entered the World Series with a deep roster that could do more than hit home runs, the Yankees checked none of those boxes. That pretty much tells the story of why they’re losing, though specific doom-filled moments are worth running through anyway:

Nestor Cortes getting the call to face Freddie Freeman in Game 1 exposed manager Aaron Boone’s less-than-deft bullpen management.Misplays by both Soto and Gleyber Torres allowed key runs to score in that game, thus underlining the Yankees’ defensive shortcomings.That Jose Trevino truly was Boone’s best choice to pinch hit with Game 2 on the line is a damning indictment of GM Brian Cashman’s roster construction.Stanton getting thrown out at home by a mile in Game 3 is more or less typical of the Yankees, who were the worst baserunning team in MLB this season.Perhaps none of this would matter if the Yanks lived up to their pedigree as the superior power-hitting team. Or, for that matter, their apparent advantage in the starting pitching department. Those two things were always their best hopes of winning their first World Series since 2009 and their 28th title overall.

But it’s just…not…happening.

And while it is true that this series could be 2-1 in favor of the Yankees if they had converted key moments in the first two games, that is little more than a coulda-woulda-shoulda fantasy.

Even if it’s not officially over, this series is functionally over for the Yankees. And thus, it is that much easier to wonder if the next game could be Soto’s last with them.

The Yankees Are Making a Weak Case to Keep Soto

The relationship that Soto has built with all of Yankee-dom has warmed the heart many times over at this point. The love truly seems to be real.

“I feel like it’s them. They make it really easy for me,” Soto said last Thursday, per Deesha Thosar of Fox Sports. “They really welcomed me, really nice, and how they treat me and how they make me feel when I stepped in that clubhouse in spring training. They really make it easy for me. I think they are the big part of this, that’s why I feel really comfortable with where I’m at and how happy I am right now.”

When it comes down to it, though, the fan who brought the oversized novelty check to Game 3 isn’t wrong in his valuation of Soto:

SportsCenter @SportsCenterThis Yankees fan wrote a $650M check for Juan Soto 😭 pic.twitter.com/vxHEuB6sbr

That does seem to be where the 26-year-old’s market is heading, and why not?

He has a .421 OBP and 201 home runs to show for his first seven seasons, plus a World Series ring to go with 11 career playoff home runs.

Even if the Yankees won this World Series, it wouldn’t necessarily give them a leg up in the looming sweepstakes for Soto’s services. This is according to Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, who hears that Soto and agent Scott Boras are “after Shohei Ohtani’s record-breaking deal” of 10 years, $700 million with the Dodgers.

A long shot, perhaps, but it’s still worth noting that a contract that large would effectively double the Yankees’ club record of $360 million for Judge. They can afford it, but so can other teams.

Like, for example, the New York Mets. And maybe the Dodgers, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that they plan to pursue Soto this winter.

Though that report feels like a well-timed psyop, there’s little question that the Mets and Dodgers are at least as capable as the Yankees of meeting Soto’s price. The Yankees may be the most valuable franchise in MLB. Still, the Mets have by far baseball’s richest owner and the Dodgers have amazing flexibility by way of $680 million deferments for Ohtani.

If Soto’s choice came down to which is the best place to pursue wins, you really have to wonder why he would favor the Yankees.

The Dodgers have been baseball’s winningest team since 2013 and are now on the precipice of a second World Series title in five years. The Mets won more games than anyone after the Grimace game in June, and they actually managed to beat the Dodgers in the NLCS twice.

Both teams also have significantly better talent bases than the Yankees, whose farm system was ranked by B/R’s Joel Reuter at No. 29 in MLB in September. A scout in July trashed the Yankees as the “Red Flag organization” due to injuries and poor performances by their prospects.

Ultimately, only Juan Soto will know what’s best for Juan Soto this winter. He’s certainly not going to come away from free agency as a poorer man, and it’ll be hard to argue against him returning if the Yankees make him the best offer.

If they fail to do so, however, it will be just as hard to blame him for leaving.

Soto simply doesn’t need the Yankees like they need him, and that has nothing to do with Soto and everything to do with them.