The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs | Week 9
Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images.
Each week, VikingsTerritory tracks the Minnesota Vikings’ odds of reaching the postseason, starting with pre-Week 1 all the way to Week 18.
The Odds of Vikings Making the Playoffs | Week 9
Various probability sources are tracked and centralized in one spot for reference.
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.
This is the Vikings’ probability meter after the Week 8 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports.
Last week, DVOA estimated the Vikings playoff odds at 83.0%.
The Detroit Lions were supposed to win the division heading into Week 1 until Minnesota showed up for a surprise 5-0 start. Detroit has since reclaimed the NFC North lead and the summer forecasts feel accurate.
If the Vikings lose on Sunday, this percentage will probably dip into the high 60s or low 70s.
Defeating the Colts this weekend would nudge Minnesota back into the 80% as teams rarely collapse from 6-2 starts to the season.
Sportsbooks = 75.0%
Matt Krohn-Imagn Images.
When the regular season kicked off, most credible sportsbooks settled around a +250 moneyline for Minnesota to visit the postseason, which translated to 28.7%. That percentage and moneyline improved to 41.6%, though, after Week 1, when Minnesota crushed the New York Giants.
Now, it resides at -300 (75.0%) after consecutive losses to the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Rams.
Minnesota can drive the percentage higher on Sunday with a win over the Colts, and oddsmakers expect the Vikings to prevail by five.
PlayoffStatus.com = 73.0%
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images.
This site takes a more rudimentary approach to the calculation, not necessarily factoring in predictive performance. But in the interest of fairness and sheer math, PlayoffStatus.com was included for a broader view.
Power Rankings Guru = 74.0%
Brad Rempel-Imagn Images.
This ranking tool defines itself as follows: “Our NFL playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from numberFire, ESPN, and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.”
Minnesota doesn’t play historically well against Indianpolis, holding an 8-18-1 (.314) record versus the Colts, but that last time the squads met, well, the Vikings pulled off the largest comeback in NFL history.
Dustin Baker is a political scientist who graduated from the University of Minnesota in 2007. Subscribe to his daily YouTube Channel, VikesNow. The show features guests, analysis, and opinion on all things related to the purple team, with 4-7 episodes per week. His MIN obsession dates back to 1996. Listed guilty pleasures: Peanut Butter Ice Cream, ‘The Sopranos,’ Basset Hounds, and The Doors (the band). He follows the NBA as closely as the NFL.
All statistics provided by Pro Football Reference / Stathead; all contractual information provided by OverTheCap.com.
