The East Hampton Cup Poll Predicts 2024 Election for Kamala Harris

Every four years, The Monogram Shop in East Hampton sells cups emblazoned with the names of the presidential candidate from each party. And every single year—apart from 2016—the candidate who sells the most has gone on to win the election.

Early in the summer, the wealthy Hamptons residents who spend the season out east were buying Donald Trump cups by the boatload. The race wasn’t even close. By July 21, Trump was leading President Joe Biden in cup sales 2,610 to 847, a seemingly insurmountable advantage. Which is not exactly shocking. The Hamptons are home, or second home, to some of the richest people in America, many of whom might not love Trump but wouldn’t mind having a president who can bring them tax cuts and deregulation, which in this case is certainly Donald Trump. Many such folks are art collectors—that’s just how things roll in the Hamptons!

But then something actually shocking happened. Biden dropped out, Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, and the cup-sales momentum at The Monogram Shop reversed instantly. When I stopped by the quaint storefront on Newtown Lane on Saturday July 27, proprietor Val Smith informed me that she had put in an order of 800 Harris cups and sold them immediately. The day prior Harris sold 419 cups to Trump’s 88. During the final stretch of sales earlier that day, Harris beat out Trump 126 to two.

“My crystal ball is broken—I don’t know how many of these cups to order,” Smith told me back in July. “The difference is stunning.”

So we thought we’d call Smith in the Hamptons to get a final total, and see if the momentum for Harris lasted beyond that early honeymoon. It did. By election day, the store had sold 14,376 Harris cups to Trump’s 8,010—and she noted that Trump had a nearly two-month head start during peak season in the Hamptons, selling 2,554 of his before Harris even entered the race.

Courtesy of The Monogram Shop.

“The initial rush of buying Kamala cups had way more to do with everyone’s relief than it did with Kamala herself,” Smith told me Tuesday. “And then over the course of the summer, her poise and sustainability showed that she could certainly be cool under fire. She’s earned the enthusiasm that the cups reflect.”

Taken that way, the results are in line with the summer of 2020, when Hamptons dwellers bought 5,207 Biden cups compared to 1,863 Trump cups. But Smith added that things have tightened in the last few days. On Monday, Trump outsold Harris by a few cups, and then on Tuesday, Harris had sold 44 and Trump had sold zero.

And it’s worth noting: even if he lost the election, Trump went on to win Suffolk County, home to East Hampton, by just 232 votes. Anything can happen, folks.