Do Jared Goff’s stats add up to 2024 NFL MVP? Not for loaded Lions

Jared Goff is getting some worthy NFL MVP buzz as the leader of the 7-1 Lions, the unquestioned NFC’s best team halfway through the 2024 season. But as impressive as his standout stats are, the totality of his numbers say he is headed to being an honorable mention for league’s ultimate individual award.

“Most Valuable Player” remains an odd award to give out in American professional team sports. There is a reasonable connotation that comes with MVP consideration: How much did a player carry his team by his play vs. how much did it lift that player? Fair or not, that has Goff headed to being this year’s Brock Purdy at quarterback — getting some earned MVP buzz and possibly votes but not close to winning.

Purdy finished a distant fourth in MVP voting for 2023, one spot behind his do-it-all teammate, Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers were the NFC’s best team last season, going 12-5 as the No. 1 playoff seed and getting to Super Bowl 58.

Last season, Purdy excelled as the league’s best downfield passer on a team with great blocking and full of big-time weapons beyond McCaffrey. For that effort, he finished well behind two other quarterbacks, now two-time MVP Lamar Jackson and runner-up Dak Prescott. 

Jackson and Prescott did benefit from the perception that their teams, the Ravens and Cowboys, had their share of offensive issues the QBs had to overcome for Baltimore to go 13-4 and Dallas to go 12-5. In the end, Purdy is the QB of the three who ended up playing in the Super Bowl.

Here’s taking a look at Goff’s play so far and discovering if has any real chance of becoming Detroit’s first NFL MVP since Barry Sanders shared the award with Brett Favre in 1997.

MORE: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings | Week 10 NFL picks | Week 10 NFL picks against the spread

Jared Goff stats 2024Goff leads the NFL with his 74.9 completion percentage. He’s No. 2 to Jackson in two categories, passer rating (115.0) and yards per attempt (8.7). In comparison, Purdy led the league in passer rating (113.0) and yards per attempt (9.6) last season.

Goff, projecting his eight-game stats over 17 games, is on pace for 3,910 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Purdy had 4,280 passing yards, 31 TDs, and 11 INTs in 16 games in 2023.

Jackson, however, is blowing away all his passing numbers from his stellar 2019 and 2023 campaigns. He also is on track to rush for more than 900 yards and produce 40 combined TDs.

The only difference from last season is that he now shares a backfield with Derrick Henry, a feature workhorse runner pushing for a 2,000-yard, 20-plus TD campaign. But if Henry’s final stats mirror McCaffrey’s from ’23, Jackson, as the QB, still has the significant edge as the current odds-on favorite.

NFL HQ: Live NFL scores | Updated NFL standings | Full NFL schedule

How Lions’ offense “hurts” Jared Goff’s MVP caseWhen MVP voters ask that fundamental question about MVP candidates, much like with Purdy, that will be the biggest dropoff in the case for Goff.

The Lions, before Week 10, were No. 7 in the league in rushing offense vs. No. 15 passing offense. Jackson’s Ravens were No. 1 in rushing and No. 3 in passing. Purdy’s 49ers were No. 2 in rushing and No. 4 in passing. There are several balanced, explosive attacks in the league like the Lions, but they lean more toward running setting up efficient passing than the others.

The Lions have the consensus NFL’s best offensive line, anchored by right tackle Penei Sewell and center Frank Ragnow. The Ravens are middle of the pack, while the Bills, in front of Josh Allen, are below average. Purdy’s 49ers and Jalen Hurts’ Eagles have strong lines, too, but those teams are in more transition up front.

Allen and Hurts are two more QBs with better MVP odds than Goff. Patrick Mahomes does, too, with a line that matches the Lions’ strength inside but is not nearly as good at the tackles. Then there’s Joe Burrow, who can shoot into stronger contention by carrying a shaky Bengals team with the shakiest of offensive lines.

The Lions are loaded at the skill position. Purdy had a healthy McCaffrey in 2023 and Jackson has a healthy Henry this season. Goff has the mighty 1-2 punch of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Go-to guy Amon Ra St. Brown is among the league’s elite all-around receivers. Sam LaPorta is a special big-play tight end. These are some of the same arguments used against Purdy with his backs and receivers that can’t be ignored vs. Goff.

The Lions’ dominance has limited Goff’s volume. Goff went into Week 10 averaging 26 passing attempts per game. This stat also hurts Hurts, who is averaging 27 attempts per game. In contrast, Mahomes (34), Allen (29), and Jackson (28) are all needed to do more for their teams. 

Goff’s completion percentage paces the league, but he also averages only 19 completions per game. In contrast, Burrow was at 24 while completing 70.4 percent of his passes, and Baker Mayfield was at 25 while completing 71.4 percent.

The Lions don’t need Goff to do anything as a runner. Goff had 16 yards on 17 attempts going into Week 10. Jackson is tied for 17th in the league (including running backs) at 505, while Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels, yet another MVP contender, is 25th for 459 yards. Hurts (310), Allen (211), and even Purdy (210) have contributed to their rushing attacks a lot more than Goff.

Does Goff have either the stats or team-carrying status to win MVP in a landscape of Jackson setting a high bar for several QBs having top seasons? No. But does his level of passing performance say he can lead Detroit to an NFC championship? Yes.

The Lions’ bottom line is winning a ring, and Goff is well positioned to win MVP when it counts most — the Super Bowl.