Why key trend to Eagles wins under Nick Sirianni may not help them in high-stakes game vs. Commanders

The reinforcement is constant.

The Philadelphia Eagles run a Thursday team meeting on how to force turnovers and they review ball-security film after each practice.

On Saturday, coaches show clips of 10 to 15 recent league turnovers to learn from, head coach Nick Sirianni said.

Sometimes college or high school film enters the conversation.

Because while the Eagles’ current five-game winning streak has included multiple ingredients, they’re not downplaying how winning the turnover battle has contributed.

Philadelphia lost the turnover battle the first four games of the season, and went 2-2. They’ve since bested it in five games — and won them all.

The strong correlation dates back way earlier than this streak

“For every team it’s a huge stat, but more so for us because we’re above the league average as far as 23-1 when we win that turnover battle,” Sirianni said. “For us, it’s a huge stat.”

Nick Sirianni’s Eagles have won the turnover battle in five straight games (all wins) and are 23-1 when they do so in his tenure. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

TruMedia data confirmed the Eagles are 23-1, with 23 straight wins, under Sirianni when posting a better turnover ratio than their opponent. It’s not surprising that taking care of the football has bred winning — but their .958 winning percentage far bests the league-average .769 clip.

Only the defending conference champions have fared better, the San Francisco 49ers 28-1 and Kansas City Chiefs 17-0 when turning the ball over less than their opponents since 2021.

Without that edge? The Eagles are 18-18 (.500) when producing the same or more giveaways than opponents.

So the emphasis will continue.

“We want it to always be on their minds,” Sirianni said Monday. “We’re constantly thinking of new ways to teach it. We constantly try to think of new ways to implement it. … For us, it’s a huge stat.”

The problem: As the 7-2 Eagles host the 6-3 Washington Commanders on Thursday with first place in the NFC East at stake, Philadelphia will have a tough time besting the Commanders.

Only once this season has Washington lost the turnover battle. The Eagles understand why.

Jayden Daniels’ rookie year is not only remarkable for the spectacular plays he’s extended and deep balls he’s thrown. The 2024 second overall draft pick has done much more than combine skill and luck for an exciting Hail Mary, and he’s done much more than just extend plays by scrambling, though he has done that well.

Daniels has done more for the surging Commanders by, in one category, doing less.

Like Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud the year before him, Daniels has made his success possible by not forfeiting opportunities.

He has thrown just two interceptions on 262 pass attempts, Daniels’ 0.8% intercepted passes ranking fifth in the league among qualified and third among current team starters. The two starters with better clips: the Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert at 0.4% and the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson at 0.8%.

His lone two credited fumbles have gone out of bounds, neither landing in the hands of his opponent.

In all, the Commanders’ four total giveaways tie the Chargers for best in the league. And while a less-opportunistic defense leaves the Commanders’ plus-6 mark tied for seventh-best, they’re nonetheless better in the category than the 14th-ranked Eagles.

“He’s only thrown two interceptions, which is unreal, really,” Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said. “Kudos to him for what he’s been able to achieve. Kudos to the coaches there that are coaching him, because that’s not an easy offense to run.”

Daniels’ efficiency has not simply been the result of conservative play calls and low-risk plays. While offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury eased Daniels in for a couple weeks, he quickly began taking deep shots. Only three quarterbacks have averaged more than Daniels’ 8.54 air yards per attempt, and five more than his 8.2 yards per attempt.

Daniels’ study habits and mental bank of coverages from five college years appear to be paying off.

“He knows what he can get away with and what he can’t,” Kingsbury said. “And then he also knows protections and he knows when he should be picked up and when he is hot. And so, he can kind of set guys up knowing, ‘OK, that’s the free rusher. I can set him up and get out this way or that way.’

“It’s a combination of his knowledge of the system and then just sheer athletic ability.”

Commanders’ clean slate won’t stop Eagles from tryingThe Eagles can win, and have won, without winning the turnover battle.

They’ll have the advantage of playing at home with a team whose core has been together far longer than that of the Commanders, who front a first-year quarterback, first-year general manager and first-year (to this organization) head coach.

The Eagles’ explosive offense should be able to find opportunities against a Commanders defense ranked 20th in passing efficiency and 12th in rushing efficiency, per Next Gen Stats. As long as Philadelphia can ward off the pressure Washington’s defense has been sending, Hurts will have a chance to capitalize on a stable of weapons including Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

But Philadelphia should know: Even as its defense has reduced its missed tackles and created more turnovers, the Washington offense is far more sound than Philadelphia’s defense in most key categories.

The Eagles’ surest route to changing the calculus is a turnover.

It will be more difficult than any of the five Philadelphia snagged Sunday against a reeling Dallas Cowboys team missing quarterback Dak Prescott.

Philadelphia, no doubt, will believe it has a chance.

And to help that chance: Cue the film of the Eagles’ own turnover creation in meetings and of the best turnover methodology across the league. Cue the takeaway drills in practice and the coaches eager to give feedback.

“You put them in drills, you put them in practice, we harp on it,” Sirianni said. “Any time there’s an opportunity missed at practice, that’s going to be in the team meeting the next day as far as, ‘Hey, we’ve got this vice tackle right here. You’re not taking a shot at the ball or you are taking a shot at the ball.’ So it’s on our mind.

“I think what happens, too, is I’m glad the players are talking about that in the sense of, ‘Hey, we watch this all the time.’ It’s etched in their mind, and that’s what you want.”

Eagles players have texted each other recently when seeing turnovers in other games. They’ve assessed the player’s ball carriage. And most importantly, to Sirianni, they’ve brought it to the top of their minds.

“That’s what you want,” he said. “That’s when you know you’ve got your culture going the way you want it to go — when all those things like that are constantly on their mind. Sounds like that’s the case.”