Conference Semifinals: Ranking the biggest MLS Cup underdogs

So, uh, I wasn’t emotionally recovered from the chaotic Game 2s that rained down across the Audi 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs a couple of weekends ago – and then a certain Game 3 in Florida threw me for yet another loop on Saturday.

This postseason has been crazy. Down is up. Up is down. Two of the biggest favorites are out now that Inter Miami and Columbus Crew have made their dramatic early exits. It’s the year of the underdog, apparently.

To celebrate those teams, I’m ranking the six underdogs in the Conference Semifinals with the longest of longshots at No. 1, based on which club has the best chance of lifting MLS Cup presented by Audi on Dec. 7. My apologies to LAFC and the LA Galaxy, but you don’t get to participate in any underdog discussions.

Prepare your pitchforks.

Seed: Eastern Conference No. 9
Regular season: 40 points (10W-14L-10D)
Opponent: Orlando City SC (Nov. 24, 3:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

I’m ready to admit I might be an utter fool for having Atlanta United as the least likely underdog to lift MLS Cup.

They just took down the best regular-season team this league has ever seen, for crying out loud. Brad Guzan is in the form of his life in goal, Dax McCarty has wound back the clock, Pedro Amador and Saba Lobjanidze form a legitimately elite attacking wingback pairing, Jamal Thiaré runs himself ragged in every phase from his No. 9 position – there’s a lot to like about how the Five Stripes are playing. I’m convinced they’re hitting a level that’s gone previously untouched in Atlanta all season long.

But do they have three more upsets in them? Color me deeply skeptical. It’s been a magical run. At some point, though, tired legs and the same flaws that limited them in the regular season (a lack of central chance creation and okay-but-not-great defensive work in their own half) will rear their ugly heads again.

Seed: Western Conference No. 6
Regular season: 52 points (15W-12L-7D)
Opponent: LA Galaxy (Nov. 24, 6 pm ET | MLS Season Pass; FS1, FOX Deportes; TSN, RDS)

Look, I think Minnesota United are a really good team. They swept Real Salt Lake in Round One, though the margins were fine enough that both victories had to come via penalty kicks. They were first in expected points per game (1.94) and third in points per game (2.11) between the summer’s transfer deadline day and the end of Decision Day, according to American Soccer Analysis. Minnesota United are flying.

But you know who else is flying? The LA Galaxy, who ran over the Colorado Rapids in nonchalant fashion in Round One.

Even if Minnesota make it out of a brutal Conference Semifinal (which they absolutely can, by the way), they’ll have another tough opponent waiting for them in either LAFC or the Sounders. That the top seeds haven’t folded out West is bad news for the underdogs.

Seed: Western Conference No. 4
Regular season: 57 points (16W-19L-9D)
Opponent: LAFC (Nov. 23, 10:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

For my money, the Seattle Sounders are the best team based outside of Southern California who also happen to be alive in the race for MLS Cup.

They were the best defensive team in the regular season, conceding the fewest goals (35) and the lowest amount of xG, according to FBref. However, because they’re stuck on the side of the bracket with both Los Angeles teams, their trophy prospects suffer.

To make it to the Western Conference Final, Brian Schmetzer’s team will have to take down big, bad LAFC – a team that’s defeated Seattle twice in regular season play this year, once in Leagues Cup, and once in the US Open Cup. Oh, and they beat the Sounders last year in the Western Conference Semifinals. LAFC don’t look like world-beaters right now, so a deeper playoff run is absolutely on the table. But it sure won’t be easy for Seattle.

Seed: Eastern Conference No. 6
Regular season: 50 points (14W-12L-8D)
Opponent: New York Red Bulls (Nov. 23, 5:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

New York City could continue to ride their elite goalkeeping and ability to control games with midfield dominance to an MLS Cup appearance. They’ve been dominant at home, going 10W-4L-3D during the regular season at three different venues, and they’ve had the Red Bulls’ number in 2024.

There’s been plenty of shot-stopping chat already, but it’s impossible for me not to spend one more beat on that topic because Matt Freese has just been that good in the playoffs. According to American Soccer Analysis, Freese has saved 3.33 goals above expected across New York City FC’s three playoff games. That’s an insane, best-in-the-postseason-field type of tally. The 26-year-old came up huge in Game 3 against FC Cincinnati, both in regulation and with saves in the eventual penalty shootout win.

There’s a path to a trophy here for New York City, and it starts with Freese.

Seed: Eastern Conference No. 7
Regular season record: 47 points (11W-9L-14D)
Opponent: New York City FC (Nov. 23, 5:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

With the players bought into Sandro Schwarz’s defensive game plan, the New York Red Bulls can be a really, really hard team to beat. If you want proof, just ask the Columbus Crew.

With a front three of Lewis Morgan, Dante Vanzeir and Emil Forsberg firing, the Red Bulls can be a really, really hard team to stop. You can ask the Columbus Crew about that, too.

Carlos Coronel was excellent in Round One, giving the Red Bulls a sizable security blanket in goal. The press was dialed in and the attackers were incisive. That’s a pretty darn good recipe for playoff success if you ask me.

And it’s a derby, which always brings a bit extra out of players and tends to level the playing field. There’s a path for the Red Bulls’ fairytale run to continue.

Seed: Eastern Conference No. 4
Regular season record: 52 points (15W-12L-7D)
Opponent: Atlanta United (Nov. 24, 3:30 pm ET | MLS Season Pass)

Were they especially convincing in Round One against Charlotte FC? No. But Orlando snuck past the Crown and now have a handful of real advantages relative to the rest of the pack of underdogs.

First, they get to match up against what must be an emotionally spent Atlanta United team, who burned a ton of energy in their three-game series against Inter Miami.

Second, they have a few games of tape on Saba Lobjanidze as a right wingback and should be able to exploit the Georgian’s lack of defensive awareness – not unlike Miami did for their opening goal Saturday night in Game 3, where Diego Gómez streaked into the vacant space just outside of center back Ronald Hernández:

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) November 10, 2024

Third, Oscar Pareja’s team will get to host their way through the Eastern Conference Final, should they make it that far. Facundo Torres, Martín Ojeda and Pedro Gallese can be match-winners. The stage is set for them to prove it.