Vikings Must Pressure Another Young QB at CHI

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When the Vikings commenced their current three-game road swing, I thought winning two of three in Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Chicago would be a good result to bring the season record to 8-3. Now that they’ve won the first two games, a win in Chicago to reach 9-2 would be a great accomplishment, even though all three teams have losing records. It’s just ever easy to win on the road in the NFL.

The Vikings have a mixed history of success and failure at Soldier Field. I remember well in my second season back in 1977 when Hall of Famer Walter Payton set a then-NFL record with 275 rushing yards in a 10-7 Bears win as our Vikings were coming off a Super Bowl season. I saw Archie Manning get sacked 11 times in 1984 against the Bears’ great defense led by HOFers Dan Hampton and Mike Singletary.

Vikings Must Pressure Another Young QB at CHI

I also have positive memories in Chicago, such as the 1992 game when Jack Del Rio intercepted a Jim Harbaugh pass and returned it 84 yards for a Pick-6 in our 38-10 win, which helped us on the way to a division title.

The Bears are a desperate team entering Sunday’s game. They’ve lost four straight games, including on Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary in Washington and last week when the Packers blocked Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal attempt to end the game. Chicago is 4-6 with a Thanksgiving Day trip to Detroit against the hot Lions as their next game. There were playoff hopes when the Bears started the season 4-2, and now their season and the future of Coach Matt Eberflus are on the brink.

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This is another advantageous matchup for Brian Flores and his defense against a rookie QB in first overall pick Caleb Williams, who has had a mostly down season (he ranks 28th in passer rating) in part due to his poor protection, and he often holds the ball too long. The Bears’ defense is solid, so it’s a game the Vikings can win if the defense dominates and forces turnovers. Meanwhile, Sam Darnold and the offense protect the ball and do just enough to win. Kicking in Chicago is always a challenge in the latter part of the season with the wind and cold.

Here are my keys to a Vikings win over Da Bears:

1. Grab an early lead: the Bears have allowed their opponents to score first in all 10 games this season. If the Vikings can get ahead, it will turn the home crowd into a negative force for the Bears and put more pressure on Williams.

2. Defense confuse and rattle Williams while dominating a shaky O-line: Follow the script that has worked so well against other young QBs this season, including Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jordan Love (in the first half of the Week 4 win), Mac Jones, and Will Levis.

Whether it’s blitzes or fake blitzes and sending four, the Vikings’ pass rushers should have a field day against a team that has allowed 41 sacks, second most, while the Vikings’ D ranks third with 35 sacks, led by edge rushers Andrew Van Ginkel (eight sacks to rank fifth in the league), Jonathan Greenard and Pat Jones (seven sacks each). Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace (three sacks each) also have had a lot of success blitzing.

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The Patriots sacked Williams nine times in their 19-3 upset win over the Bears in Chicago two weeks ago. The Bears were better with only three sacks allowed last week vs. the Pack (but Williams had to scramble a lot). I think the Vikings will take Williams down at least five times.

Here’s a good stat on Brian Flores’ resume: rookie QBs are 1-7 in games against Flores as a DC in New England and Minnesota and Head Coach in Miami.

3. Stop the run and the quick passing game: To help take the pressure off Williams, I expect the Bears to try to establish the run with D’Andre Swift and with Williams on the move (he had 70 yards on the ground against the Packers last week). I don’t think they’ll have success running it against the Vikings, who lead the NFL in rush defense (74 yards per game allowed, and they held Tennessee to 33 yards last week).

I also think Chicago’s new OC, Thomas Brown (who replaced the fired Shane Waldron last week), will follow the Rams’ script and call a lot of wide receiver screens and short passes to an excellent trio of receivers in D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie first-rounder Rome Odunze while also getting a good tight end Cole Kmet plenty of targets on short and intermediate throws. This is where Cashman, Pace, and the secondary are so important in fighting off blocks and tackling well.

4. Cashman and Pace are keys to stopping Williams’ scrambles. The Vikings’ defense is so much better with Cashman in the lineup. The Minnesota defense has allowed more than 17 points in only one game he’s started (Green Bay in Week 4), and the team is 7-0 when he’s been in the lineup.

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The 49ers head to Green Bay on Sunday for a game with significant playoff implications for both teams, and there are injury concerns surrounding three of San Fran’s best players — QB Brock Purdy (right shoulder), TE George Kittle (hamstring), and DE Nick Bosa (oblique) who are all Pro Bowlers. The 49ers already have lost two key players for the season — WR Brandon Aiyuk (ACL/MCL) and DT Javon Hargrave (triceps). I think the Packers will beat the 49ers and add to their misery.

3. In other big Week 12 games affecting the NFC West, the Cardinals are at Seattle (I pick the Seahawks coming off their last-minute win over the 49ers), and the Rams host the Eagles on Sunday night. The Eagles have won six straight games, and I think they’ll win this big road game.  

It’s the Harbaugh Bowl with the Ravens at the Chargers on Monday night. The last time John and Jim’s teams met was in the Super Bowl 12 years ago when John’s Ravens beat Jim’s 49ers. It will be a close game in L.A., with big brother John emerging victorious again.

Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis and does other sports consulting and media work along with college/corporate speaking. Follow him and direct message him on Twitter– @jeffdiamondnfl