Jack’s Take: Time To Reset Expectations For Indiana After Battle 4 Atlantis?

PARADISE ISLAND, The Bahamas – Mike Woodson’s fourth season at Indiana, for many reasons, was supposed to be his best.

But as he spoke Friday afternoon at the Imperial Ballroom, many of the same concerns from his previous three seasons surfaced – even after a win. The Hoosiers ended their stretch of three games in three days at the Battle 4 Atlantis by playing well in several areas in an 89-73 win over Providence. But that didn’t come close to erasing the sting of their 89-61 loss to Louisville Wednesday and 89-73 loss to Gonzaga on Thanksgiving, when Indiana’s defense was a disconnected mess and its offense shot poorly and turned the ball over far too often.

Indiana entered the Battle 4 Atlantis ranked No. 14 in the nation. It was widely considered a Big Ten title contender with enough talent to earn a top-five seed in the NCAA Tournament. But after a 1-2 week in the Bahamas, it’s time to reset those expectations. At this point, Indiana is back to simply hoping it can win an uphill battle and sneak into the Big Dance, instead of eyeing a deep run or a Big Ten title.

Indiana relied on a trip to the Bahamas to bolster its nonconference resume, and to show up and look so uncompetitive the first two games is a major concern. It struck out on picking up any resume-boosting wins. It may also be a lesson for future scheduling tactics; putting so much weight on an unpredictable tournament with quick turnarounds is risky.

Providence is a borderline top-100 team, according to analytics sites KenPom and Bart Torvik, and it faced Indiana without leading scorer Bryce Hopkins. Indiana also defeated South Carolina in November, a team in the top–75 range, but the rest of its nonconference schedule features Sam Houston, Miami of Ohio, Chattanooga and Winthrop. 

That means the Hoosiers may not get another chance to defeat a likely NCAA Tournament team until January. And when they finally approach those opportunities, their performances in the Bahamas showed they have a long way to go to compete with high-caliber teams. Woodson acknowledged as much. 

“We gotta play harder, get better,” Woodson said of his biggest lesson learned this past week. “We’ll continue to practice and work hard. I gotta keep pushing them. I mean, Gonzaga, there’s a reason they’re a good team. They’re well-coached, and those guys play hard. Louisville played hard. We gotta get our guys playing at that level, because if we do, then we can put ourselves in position to beat really good teams.”

Indiana coach Mike Woodson against Providence in the Battle 4 Atlantis. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Nothing Woodson said there is wrong. He knows the issues, and he’s hard set on fixing them. That doesn’t mean it’ll happen. Many of the same problems continue to pop up, and it’s an open question whether Woodson can fix them. 

Indiana still gives up way too many offensive rebounds, 41 across three Battle 4 Atlantis games. It still matches up poorly against rosters that can play with pace, space and five capable shooters, like Louisville. Its backcourt still gets outplayed against top-tier teams like Gonzaga, despite the additions of Myles Rice and Kanaan Carlyle. It still doesn’t shoot 3-pointers at a high rate, but its opponents often do. And it got blown out in high-profile nonconference games, again.

Those uncompetitive, wide-margin losses under Woodson have become far too common. Along with a 28-point loss to Louisville, a game Indiana once trailed by 38, it also lost by 16 and once trailed by 23 the next day against Gonzaga. The Louisville game, perhaps the worst of them all, felt similar to the Hoosiers’ 93-66 loss to Nebraska in last year’s Big Ten Tournament, or their other eight double-digit losses last season. Or the eight others in 2022-23. Or the five others in Woodson’s first season.

That wasn’t supposed to continue this season. Woodson addressed Indiana’s weaknesses from last year by bringing in a well-rounded transfer portal class with guards, shooters and bigs who had previous success at the high-major level. Going into the season, Woodson claimed this was his most talented roster across four seasons. Even after the debacle in the Bahamas, it still is.

He doesn’t have Trayce Jackson-Davis anymore, the best single player he’s coached at Indiana, but from top to bottom, it’s his best roster. Woodson needed Jackson-Davis and one or two others to have big nights to win games his first three seasons; scoring can come from all over this year. Indiana had All-Big Ten caliber players every year under Woodson, but this team is by far the deepest. 

Perhaps the top reason for optimism heading into this season was more dynamic guard play, headlined by transfer portal additions Rice and Carlyle. Rice finished the week with just 11 total points on 4-for-25 shooting. Carlyle was held scoreless and committed four turnovers against Louisville. He finished with six points on 2-for-8 shooting against Gonzaga and didn’t play in the Providence game due to an undisclosed injury. Altogether, the two transfer guards combined for 11 assists and 10 turnovers. That mediocre performance by your starting guards won’t get you to the NCAA tournament.

Woodson also said in the preseason that Indiana had the roster to take and make more 3-point shots. Like his comments about this being his most talented roster, it still rings at least partially true. Indiana is shooting 35.8% from 3-point range this year, its second-best mark under Woodson, behind the 2022-23 Hoosiers, who shot 36.8%. But Indiana has attempted just 17.6 3-pointers per game, which ranks 347th nationally. 

Part of that is because Indiana still has two efficient post players in Oumar Ballo and Malik Reneau, but Indiana still hasn’t taken full advantage of a better 3-point shooting roster. Mackenzie Mgbako has had a great start to his sophomore season offensively, averaging 17.3 points per game on 51.3% 3-point shooting. But 549 players across the country are taking more than Mgbako’s 4.4 3-point attempts per game. Woodson said he’d run more plays to get Luke Goode 3-point looks than he did with a player like Miller Kopp, but Goode has taken just 21 through seven games. 

Indiana’s Mackenzie Mgbako (21) shoots over Providence’s Eli DeLaurier (12) during the Battle 4 Atlantis. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Last year’s issues were more roster construction-related, given Indiana’s lackluster back court, unreliable depth and injury to Xavier Johnson. Despite being mentioned in coaching hot seat lists by national college basketball media last season, Woodson deserved another chance to get it right. 

But Woodson has fallen short of expectations with this roster, and that’s an indictment on his coaching. Besides, reaching the NCAA Tournament his first two seasons were more measured steps in the right direction than wild successes. He has more talent than ever, but through seven games, what reasons has he given that things will all suddenly improve and be better than the last three, like everyone expected?

He brought in plenty of players with impressive resumes and retained several key players. That’s why Indiana’s struggles this season seem to stem more from coaching than a lack of talent like last year. If Woodson can’t win with this roster, the program is heading in a worrisome direction.

Following Indiana’s loss to Gonzaga, Woodson was asked what he’d say to fans who are concerned about the big-picture outlook of the program. Their frustrations are warranted, given the resources poured into a program with self-declared expectations to win Big Ten and national titles. 

“Well again, right now my focus is on our team and a new team that’s got seven new players that we’re still trying to work things out and work through it,” Woodson said after losing to Gonzaga. “I’m gonna keep dishing it ‘til I get this team where I think it should be.”

Indiana guards Myles Rice (1) and Trey Galloway (32) against Providence in the Battle 4 Atlantis. / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Expecting Indiana to need a few games to build team chemistry was reasonable. That’s what the four-game lead up to the Bahamas was for. And the problem with using that excuse this past week is that Woodson’s Hoosiers got blown out by a Louisville team with a new head coach, Pat Kelsey, who brought in 13 new players and already established an identity. Indiana is far behind in that respect.

Perhaps the best reason for optimism around Indiana at this point is that no season’s success or failure is determined in November. No. 3 Gonzaga and No. 24 Arizona stumbled in the Battle 4 Atlantis, too, and back-to-back national champion UConn went 0-3 in the Maui Invitational. 

That doesn’t excuse Indiana’s poor showing in the Bahamas or immediately restore Big Ten title expectations after whiffing in its biggest nonconference games. But it offers some national perspective that no team is a finished product in November.

Indiana has four more nonconference games and 20 chances in Big Ten play to get back on track, and the conference doesn’t appear too intimidating at this stage. Though Indiana’s ceiling has been lowered after the Battle 4 Atlantis, the talent is still there.

It’s up to Woodson and the Hoosiers not to waste it.